For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
83.289% |
15.915% |
0.706% |
0.090% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
16.570% |
80.466% |
2.680% |
0.273% |
|
99.989% |
|
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.106% |
2.840% |
65.043% |
25.019% |
|
93.008% |
|
6.972% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.035% |
0.753% |
23.313% |
48.347% |
|
72.448% |
|
25.941% |
1.437% |
0.170% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.026% |
8.231% |
25.102% |
|
33.359% |
|
56.575% |
7.608% |
1.886% |
0.470% |
0.097% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.077% |
|
0.077% |
|
2.843% |
43.788% |
22.815% |
15.448% |
9.862% |
4.167% |
|
1.000% |
|
0.830% |
0.154% |
0.016% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.615% |
|
0.624% |
|
4.476% |
19.796% |
24.488% |
19.920% |
15.940% |
11.399% |
|
3.357% |
|
2.858% |
0.465% |
0.034% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.018% |
0.467% |
|
0.485% |
|
2.471% |
17.211% |
20.347% |
20.027% |
19.611% |
14.090% |
|
5.758% |
|
4.475% |
1.193% |
0.090% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.227% |
4.353% |
14.942% |
23.015% |
25.320% |
23.799% |
|
8.344% |
|
7.595% |
0.737% |
0.012% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.484% |
5.782% |
15.142% |
19.201% |
21.984% |
25.581% |
|
11.816% |
|
8.530% |
3.032% |
0.254% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.177% |
1.533% |
4.744% |
12.293% |
|
81.249% |
|
41.975% |
27.545% |
10.786% |
0.943% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.274% |
2.076% |
7.216% |
|
90.418% |
|
23.897% |
44.312% |
20.015% |
2.194% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.017% |
0.108% |
0.361% |
1.336% |
|
98.177% |
|
8.282% |
17.550% |
49.982% |
22.312% |
0.051% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.114% |
|
99.881% |
|
1.558% |
5.012% |
18.800% |
72.522% |
1.989% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.011% |
2.029% |
97.960% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Winter 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.738% |
22.468% |
0.697% |
0.097% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.198% |
76.113% |
0.647% |
0.042% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.049% |
1.089% |
66.818% |
25.088% |
|
93.044% |
|
6.943% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.015% |
0.327% |
23.604% |
48.769% |
|
72.715% |
|
26.002% |
1.201% |
0.081% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.003% |
8.216% |
25.322% |
|
33.541% |
|
58.297% |
6.155% |
1.473% |
0.442% |
0.089% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.062% |
|
0.062% |
|
3.023% |
47.094% |
22.344% |
14.241% |
8.562% |
3.705% |
|
0.969% |
|
0.829% |
0.133% |
0.007% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.018% |
0.501% |
|
0.519% |
|
2.834% |
19.916% |
20.327% |
19.529% |
18.259% |
13.071% |
|
5.545% |
|
4.351% |
1.110% |
0.084% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.110% |
|
0.110% |
|
2.059% |
13.556% |
21.774% |
21.382% |
19.678% |
15.957% |
|
5.484% |
|
4.607% |
0.824% |
0.053% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.314% |
5.263% |
16.582% |
23.243% |
24.863% |
21.628% |
|
8.107% |
|
7.415% |
0.677% |
0.015% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.528% |
6.796% |
17.136% |
18.921% |
20.986% |
23.904% |
|
11.720% |
|
8.533% |
2.965% |
0.222% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.245% |
1.764% |
5.030% |
12.947% |
|
80.008% |
|
41.097% |
27.198% |
10.801% |
0.912% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.373% |
2.133% |
7.230% |
|
90.241% |
|
23.546% |
44.686% |
19.903% |
2.106% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.104% |
0.394% |
1.437% |
|
98.050% |
|
8.178% |
17.531% |
50.552% |
21.730% |
0.059% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.118% |
|
99.876% |
|
1.444% |
4.876% |
18.345% |
73.200% |
2.011% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.018% |
2.052% |
97.930% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
88.462% |
10.792% |
0.664% |
0.082% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
11.382% |
85.090% |
3.257% |
0.265% |
|
99.994% |
|
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.120% |
3.246% |
64.897% |
24.944% |
|
93.207% |
|
6.784% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.036% |
0.854% |
23.094% |
48.317% |
|
72.301% |
|
26.102% |
1.443% |
0.147% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.018% |
8.072% |
25.210% |
|
33.300% |
|
56.116% |
8.011% |
1.903% |
0.541% |
0.115% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.069% |
|
0.069% |
|
2.880% |
42.673% |
23.055% |
15.758% |
10.250% |
4.249% |
|
1.066% |
|
0.870% |
0.181% |
0.015% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.599% |
|
0.599% |
|
4.919% |
22.386% |
27.436% |
20.244% |
14.543% |
8.363% |
|
1.510% |
|
1.402% |
0.106% |
0.002% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.502% |
|
0.518% |
|
2.480% |
15.959% |
19.786% |
20.403% |
20.605% |
14.623% |
|
5.626% |
|
4.377% |
1.164% |
0.085% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.231% |
3.965% |
13.636% |
22.559% |
25.508% |
25.228% |
|
8.873% |
|
8.082% |
0.777% |
0.014% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.482% |
5.547% |
13.851% |
18.871% |
22.212% |
26.846% |
|
12.179% |
|
8.985% |
2.999% |
0.195% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.157% |
1.281% |
4.422% |
12.253% |
|
81.881% |
|
42.687% |
27.537% |
10.707% |
0.950% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.272% |
1.998% |
7.057% |
|
90.660% |
|
23.823% |
44.623% |
20.116% |
2.098% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.016% |
0.064% |
0.344% |
1.257% |
|
98.318% |
|
8.299% |
17.668% |
50.197% |
22.115% |
0.039% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.110% |
|
99.887% |
|
1.475% |
4.945% |
18.656% |
72.784% |
2.027% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.013% |
2.053% |
97.934% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Winter 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
94.742% |
4.567% |
0.607% |
0.084% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
4.918% |
87.006% |
7.097% |
0.919% |
|
99.940% |
|
0.060% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.264% |
6.570% |
61.867% |
24.611% |
|
93.312% |
|
6.669% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.076% |
1.742% |
22.583% |
47.321% |
|
71.722% |
|
25.511% |
2.414% |
0.347% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.115% |
7.800% |
24.630% |
|
32.545% |
|
52.514% |
11.475% |
2.582% |
0.741% |
0.137% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
0.024% |
1.911% |
|
1.935% |
|
9.868% |
32.486% |
27.874% |
15.844% |
8.729% |
3.023% |
|
0.241% |
|
0.235% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
7. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.068% |
|
0.068% |
|
2.691% |
34.878% |
26.096% |
18.388% |
11.914% |
4.842% |
|
1.123% |
|
0.949% |
0.161% |
0.013% |
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.446% |
|
0.468% |
|
2.128% |
11.988% |
20.593% |
22.060% |
22.233% |
14.846% |
|
5.684% |
|
4.457% |
1.141% |
0.085% |
0.001% |
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.149% |
2.659% |
10.929% |
22.387% |
27.274% |
27.894% |
|
8.708% |
|
7.933% |
0.758% |
0.017% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.410% |
4.079% |
11.513% |
19.324% |
23.475% |
28.803% |
|
12.386% |
|
9.064% |
3.096% |
0.226% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.058% |
0.973% |
4.098% |
12.078% |
|
82.793% |
|
43.474% |
27.670% |
10.720% |
0.929% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.211% |
1.794% |
7.179% |
|
90.813% |
|
24.046% |
44.570% |
20.035% |
2.162% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.005% |
0.066% |
0.339% |
1.209% |
|
98.379% |
|
8.392% |
17.630% |
50.071% |
22.219% |
0.067% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.120% |
|
99.873% |
|
1.450% |
4.968% |
18.817% |
72.656% |
1.982% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.016% |
2.033% |
97.951% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.06 |
1.24 |
77 |
21 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
16.5 |
21.23 |
1.09 |
1.86 |
22 |
72 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.96 |
3.51 |
0 |
4 |
55 |
29 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.26 |
1.07 |
4.10 |
0 |
2 |
26 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.35 |
1.06 |
5.02 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
48 |
19 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.26 |
1.07 |
7.59 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
25 |
26 |
18 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.74 |
8.15 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.75 |
1.15 |
8.41 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
13 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.53 |
1.15 |
8.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
11 |
17 |
21 |
20 |
16 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.25 |
1.04 |
9.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.83 |
0.97 |
11.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
19 |
34 |
22 |
8 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
23 |
38 |
21 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.41 |
1.12 |
13.62 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
21 |
46 |
18 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.10 |
1.13 |
14.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
18 |
71 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.27 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 14:59 |
207 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-23 16:01 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 17:02 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:04 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:06 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:08 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:09 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:11 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:13 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:15 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:16 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:18 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:20 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:22 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:23 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:25 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:27 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:29 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:30 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:32 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:34 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:36 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:37 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:39 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:41 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:43 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:44 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:46 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 19:48 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 20:50 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 21:51 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 22:53 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 23:55 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 00:57 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |