For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.710% |
22.472% |
0.704% |
0.114% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.226% |
76.109% |
0.625% |
0.038% |
|
99.998% |
|
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.048% |
1.105% |
66.688% |
25.221% |
|
93.062% |
|
6.927% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.016% |
0.312% |
23.763% |
48.572% |
|
72.663% |
|
26.133% |
1.106% |
0.095% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.200% |
25.381% |
|
33.583% |
|
58.367% |
6.080% |
1.457% |
0.418% |
0.092% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.076% |
|
0.076% |
|
2.968% |
47.350% |
22.301% |
14.339% |
8.470% |
3.519% |
|
0.977% |
|
0.785% |
0.174% |
0.018% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.479% |
|
0.499% |
|
2.640% |
19.892% |
20.417% |
19.504% |
18.161% |
13.364% |
|
5.523% |
|
4.351% |
1.089% |
0.083% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.109% |
|
0.109% |
|
2.133% |
13.555% |
21.646% |
21.494% |
19.565% |
16.002% |
|
5.496% |
|
4.648% |
0.792% |
0.056% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.290% |
5.221% |
16.876% |
23.101% |
24.856% |
21.598% |
|
8.058% |
|
7.339% |
0.704% |
0.015% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.540% |
6.777% |
16.920% |
18.899% |
21.220% |
23.818% |
|
11.816% |
|
8.573% |
3.038% |
0.205% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.260% |
1.799% |
5.114% |
12.827% |
|
79.996% |
|
41.030% |
27.208% |
10.859% |
0.899% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.363% |
2.141% |
7.343% |
|
90.133% |
|
23.628% |
44.485% |
19.967% |
2.053% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.008% |
0.080% |
0.374% |
1.419% |
|
98.115% |
|
8.195% |
17.701% |
50.306% |
21.874% |
0.039% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.107% |
|
99.886% |
|
1.451% |
4.809% |
18.469% |
73.105% |
2.052% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.022% |
2.069% |
97.909% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – PeSTO 2.210 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.745% |
22.485% |
0.680% |
0.090% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.206% |
76.075% |
0.679% |
0.040% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.039% |
1.124% |
66.700% |
25.309% |
|
93.172% |
|
6.828% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.010% |
0.315% |
23.756% |
48.793% |
|
72.874% |
|
26.523% |
0.580% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.001% |
8.185% |
25.535% |
|
33.721% |
|
59.698% |
5.109% |
1.149% |
0.277% |
0.039% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.065% |
|
0.065% |
|
3.039% |
54.259% |
19.602% |
11.507% |
7.225% |
3.335% |
|
0.968% |
|
0.804% |
0.140% |
0.024% |
|
|
7. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.109% |
|
0.109% |
|
2.177% |
15.373% |
24.216% |
22.777% |
17.463% |
12.990% |
|
4.895% |
|
4.097% |
0.743% |
0.055% |
|
|
8. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.328% |
6.565% |
20.288% |
24.479% |
23.109% |
17.894% |
|
7.337% |
|
6.618% |
0.703% |
0.016% |
|
|
9. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.649% |
8.348% |
20.081% |
19.423% |
19.991% |
20.391% |
|
11.107% |
|
7.913% |
2.926% |
0.264% |
0.004% |
|
10. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
|
0.049% |
|
0.758% |
9.755% |
14.181% |
18.534% |
22.575% |
21.711% |
|
12.437% |
|
9.234% |
2.976% |
0.227% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.408% |
2.313% |
6.099% |
13.705% |
|
77.469% |
|
38.403% |
25.737% |
11.430% |
1.899% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
0.565% |
2.923% |
8.065% |
|
88.415% |
|
21.977% |
40.649% |
21.742% |
4.047% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.020% |
0.125% |
0.551% |
1.604% |
|
97.695% |
|
7.817% |
16.687% |
41.009% |
32.122% |
0.060% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.025% |
0.298% |
|
99.677% |
|
3.137% |
9.439% |
25.227% |
61.443% |
0.431% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.485% |
99.509% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – PeSTO 2.210 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.774% |
22.415% |
0.709% |
0.102% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.162% |
76.119% |
0.681% |
0.038% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.053% |
1.137% |
66.852% |
25.191% |
|
93.233% |
|
6.764% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.011% |
0.327% |
23.464% |
48.662% |
|
72.464% |
|
26.538% |
0.932% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.290% |
25.557% |
|
33.849% |
|
59.122% |
5.295% |
1.317% |
0.342% |
0.072% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.057% |
|
0.057% |
|
2.982% |
48.644% |
21.259% |
13.863% |
8.583% |
3.622% |
|
0.990% |
|
0.811% |
0.164% |
0.015% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.267% |
|
0.271% |
|
1.722% |
18.764% |
21.120% |
21.271% |
19.687% |
13.280% |
|
3.885% |
|
3.379% |
0.492% |
0.014% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.115% |
|
0.115% |
|
2.058% |
14.121% |
21.766% |
21.059% |
19.327% |
15.957% |
|
5.597% |
|
4.782% |
0.769% |
0.046% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
5.279% |
17.016% |
22.694% |
24.190% |
21.988% |
|
8.556% |
|
7.802% |
0.726% |
0.028% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
|
0.011% |
|
0.537% |
6.956% |
17.114% |
18.566% |
20.641% |
24.180% |
|
11.995% |
|
8.755% |
3.012% |
0.227% |
0.001% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.295% |
1.749% |
4.997% |
12.621% |
|
80.335% |
|
41.441% |
27.554% |
10.600% |
0.740% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.023% |
0.368% |
2.140% |
6.995% |
|
90.473% |
|
23.885% |
45.290% |
19.549% |
1.749% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.024% |
0.088% |
0.363% |
1.347% |
|
98.176% |
|
8.169% |
17.734% |
50.266% |
21.977% |
0.030% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
99.993% |
|
0.976% |
4.259% |
19.245% |
74.101% |
1.412% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.010% |
1.432% |
98.558% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – PeSTO 2.210 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.722% |
22.495% |
0.685% |
0.098% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.207% |
76.095% |
0.665% |
0.033% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.054% |
1.106% |
66.611% |
25.106% |
|
92.877% |
|
7.088% |
0.035% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.017% |
0.302% |
23.791% |
48.309% |
|
72.419% |
|
25.712% |
1.735% |
0.131% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.188% |
25.238% |
|
33.428% |
|
56.812% |
7.185% |
1.912% |
0.540% |
0.116% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.062% |
|
0.062% |
|
2.637% |
40.674% |
25.719% |
16.580% |
9.601% |
3.702% |
|
1.025% |
|
0.854% |
0.158% |
0.013% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.060% |
1.050% |
|
1.110% |
|
5.207% |
29.821% |
24.853% |
19.441% |
13.335% |
5.616% |
|
0.617% |
|
0.603% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.096% |
|
0.096% |
|
1.872% |
11.486% |
19.442% |
20.276% |
22.102% |
18.599% |
|
6.127% |
|
5.238% |
0.832% |
0.057% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.248% |
3.891% |
13.632% |
22.454% |
26.329% |
24.661% |
|
8.785% |
|
7.983% |
0.780% |
0.022% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.424% |
5.171% |
14.182% |
19.262% |
22.390% |
26.546% |
|
12.017% |
|
8.776% |
3.038% |
0.203% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.115% |
1.152% |
4.397% |
12.763% |
|
81.571% |
|
43.179% |
28.185% |
10.007% |
0.200% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.225% |
1.442% |
6.818% |
|
91.511% |
|
24.944% |
47.405% |
18.555% |
0.607% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.067% |
0.288% |
1.288% |
|
98.347% |
|
8.246% |
18.134% |
58.360% |
13.570% |
0.037% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.177% |
1.454% |
12.753% |
81.859% |
3.757% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.030% |
3.764% |
96.206% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.06 |
1.32 |
70 |
28 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
17.5 |
21.58 |
0.99 |
1.74 |
29 |
67 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.85 |
0.97 |
3.53 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.09 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
5.00 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.26 |
1.07 |
7.51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
26 |
27 |
17 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.16 |
2.74 |
8.10 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
11.5 |
14.53 |
1.15 |
8.71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
12 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.40 |
1.07 |
8.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
13 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.97 |
9.20 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
15 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.26 |
1.04 |
9.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.82 |
0.96 |
11.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
19 |
34 |
21 |
8 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.20 |
0.96 |
12.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
22 |
38 |
22 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.41 |
1.12 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
22 |
46 |
18 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.0 |
10.08 |
1.13 |
14.70 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
18 |
72 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.27 |
1.12 |
15.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 16:15 |
208 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-23 17:17 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:18 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:20 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:22 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:24 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:26 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:28 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:29 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:31 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:33 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:35 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:37 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:38 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:40 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:42 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:44 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:46 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:47 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:49 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:51 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:53 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:55 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:57 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:58 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:00 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:02 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:04 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:06 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:07 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:09 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:11 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:13 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |