For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.630% |
22.518% |
0.756% |
0.096% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.325% |
75.990% |
0.658% |
0.026% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.033% |
1.159% |
66.550% |
25.310% |
|
93.052% |
|
6.943% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.012% |
0.331% |
23.711% |
48.719% |
|
72.773% |
|
26.243% |
0.935% |
0.047% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.319% |
25.385% |
|
33.706% |
|
59.182% |
5.380% |
1.277% |
0.380% |
0.072% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.063% |
|
0.063% |
|
2.958% |
48.652% |
21.235% |
13.928% |
8.515% |
3.672% |
|
0.977% |
|
0.804% |
0.157% |
0.016% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.281% |
|
0.287% |
|
1.758% |
18.947% |
20.891% |
21.114% |
19.967% |
13.077% |
|
3.959% |
|
3.419% |
0.524% |
0.016% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
|
0.106% |
|
2.078% |
13.811% |
21.831% |
21.113% |
19.227% |
16.241% |
|
5.593% |
|
4.749% |
0.801% |
0.043% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.293% |
5.457% |
16.981% |
22.727% |
24.120% |
22.051% |
|
8.371% |
|
7.616% |
0.732% |
0.023% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.544% |
6.809% |
17.443% |
18.573% |
20.780% |
24.094% |
|
11.743% |
|
8.542% |
2.991% |
0.210% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.253% |
1.701% |
4.868% |
12.560% |
|
80.614% |
|
41.572% |
27.541% |
10.782% |
0.719% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.369% |
2.067% |
6.959% |
|
90.578% |
|
24.064% |
45.161% |
19.517% |
1.836% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.093% |
0.384% |
1.336% |
|
98.172% |
|
8.286% |
17.750% |
50.009% |
22.084% |
0.043% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
99.993% |
|
0.948% |
4.343% |
19.364% |
73.905% |
1.433% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.020% |
1.456% |
98.524% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.785% |
22.412% |
0.703% |
0.100% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.158% |
76.173% |
0.644% |
0.025% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.044% |
1.078% |
66.804% |
24.919% |
|
92.845% |
|
7.152% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.013% |
0.333% |
23.767% |
48.693% |
|
72.806% |
|
26.188% |
0.947% |
0.058% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.004% |
8.075% |
25.776% |
|
33.855% |
|
59.067% |
5.365% |
1.241% |
0.386% |
0.081% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.071% |
|
0.071% |
|
2.974% |
48.812% |
21.304% |
13.878% |
8.664% |
3.595% |
|
0.702% |
|
0.617% |
0.079% |
0.006% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.276% |
|
0.283% |
|
1.718% |
18.895% |
21.029% |
21.288% |
19.897% |
13.157% |
|
3.733% |
|
3.276% |
0.454% |
0.003% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.133% |
|
0.133% |
|
2.066% |
13.786% |
21.741% |
21.069% |
19.190% |
16.598% |
|
5.417% |
|
4.710% |
0.700% |
0.007% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.292% |
5.250% |
17.197% |
22.665% |
24.405% |
21.985% |
|
8.206% |
|
7.608% |
0.596% |
0.002% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.543% |
6.938% |
17.140% |
18.603% |
20.888% |
24.457% |
|
11.424% |
|
8.487% |
2.893% |
0.044% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.268% |
1.697% |
4.884% |
12.877% |
|
80.270% |
|
45.604% |
28.262% |
6.058% |
0.346% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.413% |
1.971% |
7.137% |
|
90.457% |
|
25.916% |
52.055% |
11.687% |
0.799% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.181% |
|
99.799% |
|
2.707% |
9.859% |
54.223% |
32.854% |
0.156% |
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
99.992% |
|
1.075% |
5.102% |
27.916% |
62.847% |
3.052% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.054% |
3.154% |
96.792% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.745% |
22.468% |
0.690% |
0.097% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.203% |
76.054% |
0.697% |
0.045% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.042% |
1.118% |
66.718% |
25.138% |
|
93.016% |
|
6.979% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.010% |
0.357% |
23.736% |
48.801% |
|
72.904% |
|
26.130% |
0.913% |
0.053% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.003% |
8.152% |
25.441% |
|
33.596% |
|
59.188% |
5.507% |
1.245% |
0.377% |
0.077% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.063% |
|
0.063% |
|
2.969% |
48.656% |
21.314% |
13.913% |
8.577% |
3.657% |
|
0.851% |
|
0.700% |
0.139% |
0.012% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.291% |
|
0.298% |
|
1.721% |
18.816% |
20.936% |
21.122% |
20.073% |
13.274% |
|
3.760% |
|
3.256% |
0.491% |
0.013% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
|
0.114% |
|
2.146% |
13.880% |
22.070% |
20.856% |
19.178% |
16.246% |
|
5.510% |
|
4.709% |
0.747% |
0.054% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.282% |
5.313% |
16.917% |
22.951% |
24.293% |
22.029% |
|
8.215% |
|
7.579% |
0.628% |
0.008% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.584% |
6.903% |
17.192% |
18.692% |
20.608% |
24.262% |
|
11.749% |
|
8.548% |
3.030% |
0.171% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.244% |
1.696% |
4.946% |
12.719% |
|
80.389% |
|
42.687% |
26.987% |
10.043% |
0.672% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.027% |
0.372% |
2.059% |
7.008% |
|
90.533% |
|
24.507% |
45.980% |
18.472% |
1.574% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.021% |
0.189% |
0.792% |
|
98.996% |
|
6.952% |
17.619% |
52.692% |
21.733% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
99.997% |
|
1.062% |
4.379% |
18.535% |
75.028% |
0.993% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.993% |
99.007% |
Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.513% |
22.707% |
0.668% |
0.112% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.429% |
75.871% |
0.652% |
0.048% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.046% |
1.107% |
66.784% |
25.166% |
|
93.103% |
|
6.890% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.012% |
0.313% |
23.760% |
48.744% |
|
72.829% |
|
26.168% |
0.939% |
0.063% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.135% |
25.467% |
|
33.604% |
|
59.087% |
5.497% |
1.337% |
0.398% |
0.073% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.060% |
|
0.060% |
|
3.052% |
48.312% |
21.268% |
13.998% |
8.398% |
3.654% |
|
1.258% |
|
0.996% |
0.235% |
0.027% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.274% |
|
0.275% |
|
1.771% |
18.941% |
20.975% |
21.117% |
19.764% |
13.020% |
|
4.137% |
|
3.479% |
0.628% |
0.030% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.120% |
|
0.120% |
|
2.122% |
13.818% |
21.616% |
20.821% |
19.180% |
16.146% |
|
6.177% |
|
4.996% |
1.090% |
0.091% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.311% |
5.425% |
17.064% |
22.873% |
24.372% |
21.422% |
|
8.533% |
|
7.607% |
0.880% |
0.046% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.599% |
7.051% |
17.299% |
18.482% |
20.524% |
23.866% |
|
12.170% |
|
8.610% |
3.168% |
0.390% |
0.002% |
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.294% |
1.665% |
4.889% |
12.311% |
|
80.837% |
|
36.942% |
27.060% |
15.640% |
1.195% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
0.387% |
1.993% |
6.750% |
|
90.843% |
|
21.923% |
37.807% |
28.290% |
2.823% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.057% |
0.258% |
0.807% |
2.823% |
|
96.049% |
|
14.588% |
25.574% |
43.975% |
11.912% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
99.996% |
|
0.859% |
3.558% |
11.511% |
83.827% |
0.241% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.241% |
99.759% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.27 |
1.06 |
1.32 |
70 |
28 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
17.5 |
21.58 |
0.99 |
1.75 |
29 |
67 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.53 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.09 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.36 |
1.06 |
4.99 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.26 |
1.07 |
7.48 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
27 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.17 |
2.74 |
8.09 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.0 |
14.50 |
1.04 |
8.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
12 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.40 |
1.07 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.27 |
0.97 |
9.21 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
15 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.26 |
1.04 |
9.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
10.5 |
12.83 |
0.97 |
11.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
19 |
34 |
21 |
8 |
1 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.97 |
12.65 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
23 |
39 |
22 |
2 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
11.41 |
1.12 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
22 |
46 |
17 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.5 |
10.10 |
1.04 |
14.72 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
18 |
73 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
4.5 |
7.26 |
1.12 |
15.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 17:03 |
209 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-23 18:05 |
210 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
2020-01-23 19:06 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:08 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:10 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:12 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:13 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:15 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:17 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:18 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:20 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:22 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:24 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:25 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:27 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:29 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:31 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:32 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:34 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:36 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:38 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:39 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:41 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:43 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:45 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:46 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 19:48 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 20:50 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 21:52 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 22:53 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 23:55 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 00:57 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |