For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.745% |
22.471% |
0.694% |
0.090% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.203% |
76.156% |
0.600% |
0.040% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.039% |
1.059% |
66.600% |
25.133% |
|
92.831% |
|
7.163% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.013% |
0.312% |
23.626% |
48.523% |
|
72.474% |
|
26.502% |
0.952% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.002% |
8.472% |
25.728% |
|
34.202% |
|
58.591% |
5.430% |
1.309% |
0.393% |
0.070% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.066% |
|
0.066% |
|
2.990% |
48.754% |
21.121% |
13.815% |
8.239% |
3.881% |
|
1.134% |
|
0.985% |
0.141% |
0.008% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.286% |
|
0.294% |
|
1.808% |
18.743% |
20.961% |
20.453% |
19.022% |
12.957% |
|
5.762% |
|
4.929% |
0.828% |
0.005% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
|
0.127% |
|
2.116% |
13.830% |
21.918% |
20.263% |
18.136% |
15.326% |
|
8.284% |
|
7.326% |
0.950% |
0.008% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.322% |
5.490% |
16.875% |
22.363% |
22.620% |
18.754% |
|
13.576% |
|
12.663% |
0.908% |
0.005% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.507% |
6.780% |
17.103% |
18.114% |
19.795% |
22.497% |
|
15.197% |
|
10.383% |
4.751% |
0.063% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.628% |
4.274% |
10.307% |
20.906% |
|
63.870% |
|
48.090% |
14.904% |
0.873% |
0.003% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.325% |
1.795% |
5.536% |
|
92.331% |
|
14.394% |
64.731% |
12.395% |
0.811% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.133% |
|
99.851% |
|
1.008% |
8.100% |
57.544% |
33.199% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
|
99.995% |
|
0.222% |
4.687% |
29.099% |
65.401% |
0.586% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.586% |
99.414% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Igel 2.3.1 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.635% |
22.570% |
0.708% |
0.087% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.306% |
76.012% |
0.644% |
0.038% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.046% |
1.074% |
66.635% |
25.240% |
|
92.995% |
|
7.002% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.013% |
0.339% |
23.953% |
48.699% |
|
73.004% |
|
25.993% |
0.941% |
0.061% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.005% |
8.056% |
25.453% |
|
33.514% |
|
59.350% |
5.417% |
1.284% |
0.355% |
0.074% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.065% |
|
0.065% |
|
2.954% |
48.347% |
21.264% |
13.793% |
8.512% |
3.822% |
|
1.243% |
|
1.073% |
0.158% |
0.012% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.291% |
|
0.295% |
|
1.725% |
18.874% |
20.851% |
20.548% |
18.976% |
12.940% |
|
5.791% |
|
4.989% |
0.799% |
0.003% |
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.117% |
|
0.117% |
|
2.107% |
14.034% |
21.657% |
20.131% |
18.220% |
15.297% |
|
8.437% |
|
7.415% |
1.002% |
0.020% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.284% |
5.378% |
16.904% |
21.998% |
22.641% |
19.100% |
|
13.695% |
|
12.813% |
0.878% |
0.004% |
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.585% |
6.987% |
17.270% |
18.456% |
19.413% |
22.072% |
|
15.207% |
|
10.328% |
4.753% |
0.126% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
0.694% |
4.412% |
10.412% |
21.084% |
|
63.379% |
|
47.042% |
14.908% |
1.429% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.306% |
1.729% |
5.393% |
|
92.557% |
|
14.103% |
62.554% |
15.236% |
0.664% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.286% |
|
99.691% |
|
2.237% |
14.686% |
80.692% |
2.076% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.262% |
2.478% |
96.028% |
1.232% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
1.232% |
98.768% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Igel 2.3.1 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.479% |
22.719% |
0.709% |
0.093% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.452% |
75.904% |
0.592% |
0.051% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.050% |
1.056% |
66.527% |
25.246% |
|
92.879% |
|
7.117% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.019% |
0.317% |
23.801% |
48.426% |
|
72.563% |
|
26.414% |
0.964% |
0.058% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.004% |
8.367% |
25.697% |
|
34.068% |
|
58.949% |
5.379% |
1.172% |
0.346% |
0.082% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.075% |
|
0.075% |
|
2.915% |
48.989% |
21.178% |
13.456% |
8.464% |
3.795% |
|
1.128% |
|
0.988% |
0.136% |
0.004% |
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.275% |
|
0.279% |
|
1.726% |
18.939% |
20.861% |
20.501% |
18.855% |
13.118% |
|
5.721% |
|
4.920% |
0.801% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.125% |
|
0.125% |
|
2.082% |
13.610% |
21.919% |
20.328% |
18.086% |
15.271% |
|
8.579% |
|
7.618% |
0.958% |
0.003% |
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.285% |
5.250% |
16.991% |
22.414% |
22.648% |
18.827% |
|
13.585% |
|
12.682% |
0.903% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.511% |
6.849% |
17.113% |
18.406% |
19.643% |
22.336% |
|
15.130% |
|
10.375% |
4.734% |
0.021% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.693% |
4.230% |
10.521% |
21.105% |
|
63.435% |
|
48.657% |
14.419% |
0.359% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.318% |
1.701% |
5.529% |
|
92.437% |
|
14.260% |
68.183% |
8.887% |
1.107% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
0.500% |
6.062% |
58.809% |
34.614% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
3.804% |
31.917% |
64.026% |
0.253% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.253% |
99.747% |
Speculate iCE 4.0.853 – Igel 2.3.1 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
76.564% |
22.568% |
0.767% |
0.101% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
23.379% |
76.000% |
0.593% |
0.028% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
0.036% |
1.094% |
66.609% |
25.204% |
|
92.943% |
|
7.049% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
0.021% |
0.335% |
23.648% |
48.637% |
|
72.641% |
|
26.340% |
0.947% |
0.071% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
0.003% |
8.377% |
25.561% |
|
33.941% |
|
59.095% |
5.227% |
1.294% |
0.362% |
0.075% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
|
0.067% |
|
2.975% |
49.134% |
21.226% |
13.493% |
8.123% |
3.875% |
|
1.107% |
|
1.004% |
0.103% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.285% |
|
0.291% |
|
1.730% |
18.795% |
20.874% |
20.506% |
19.298% |
12.941% |
|
5.565% |
|
4.800% |
0.765% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
|
0.106% |
|
2.030% |
13.596% |
21.770% |
20.658% |
18.154% |
15.378% |
|
8.308% |
|
7.336% |
0.972% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
5.450% |
17.081% |
22.285% |
22.641% |
18.729% |
|
13.537% |
|
12.690% |
0.847% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
|
0.011% |
|
0.504% |
6.820% |
17.011% |
18.289% |
19.727% |
22.594% |
|
15.044% |
|
10.478% |
4.524% |
0.042% |
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.653% |
4.061% |
10.176% |
21.055% |
|
64.032% |
|
48.755% |
14.685% |
0.585% |
0.007% |
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
0.345% |
1.806% |
5.409% |
|
92.420% |
|
14.064% |
64.905% |
12.561% |
0.890% |
|
13. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
|
99.987% |
|
0.808% |
11.457% |
61.855% |
25.867% |
|
14. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.065% |
1.742% |
24.957% |
73.236% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
18.5 |
22.28 |
1.06 |
1.32 |
70 |
28 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
17.5 |
21.58 |
0.99 |
1.74 |
29 |
67 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.84 |
0.97 |
3.54 |
0 |
2 |
56 |
30 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
18.27 |
1.07 |
4.09 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
17.37 |
1.06 |
4.99 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
21 |
49 |
19 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.0 |
15.27 |
1.07 |
7.49 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
27 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.75 |
8.14 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.0 |
14.51 |
1.06 |
8.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
16 |
12 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
11.5 |
14.39 |
1.07 |
9.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.0 |
14.27 |
0.97 |
9.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
11.5 |
14.26 |
1.04 |
9.29 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.34 |
0.86 |
11.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
25 |
33 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
10.0 |
12.21 |
0.96 |
12.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
20 |
52 |
15 |
1 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
8.5 |
10.88 |
1.03 |
14.03 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
15 |
53 |
28 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
7.5 |
10.10 |
1.03 |
14.62 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
26 |
65 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-23 19:17 |
211 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-23 20:19 |
212 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-23 21:21 |
213 |
Fire 021819 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-23 22:23 |
214 |
Demolito 20191229 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-23 23:25 |
215 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 00:26 |
216 |
Wasp 3.82 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 01:28 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:30 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:32 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:34 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:35 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:37 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 07:39 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 08:41 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 09:43 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 10:44 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 11:46 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 12:48 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 13:50 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 14:52 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 15:53 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 16:55 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 17:57 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 18:59 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:01 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:02 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:04 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:06 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:08 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:10 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |