For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.672% |
7.328% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.328% |
92.266% |
0.406% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.406% |
86.580% |
10.701% |
|
97.687% |
|
2.313% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.875% |
56.913% |
|
65.788% |
|
30.902% |
3.044% |
0.260% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.139% |
31.389% |
|
35.528% |
|
56.618% |
5.390% |
1.680% |
0.590% |
0.177% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.352% |
|
0.352% |
|
5.075% |
51.462% |
21.666% |
12.756% |
5.897% |
2.280% |
|
0.512% |
|
0.464% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.490% |
|
0.490% |
|
2.802% |
24.179% |
21.488% |
21.287% |
15.335% |
11.402% |
|
3.017% |
|
2.757% |
0.260% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.148% |
|
0.148% |
|
1.735% |
8.190% |
25.329% |
20.528% |
17.883% |
17.982% |
|
8.205% |
|
6.871% |
1.334% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.085% |
2.540% |
11.423% |
22.605% |
29.429% |
21.697% |
|
12.221% |
|
11.471% |
0.750% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.470% |
5.186% |
17.587% |
17.879% |
19.475% |
22.667% |
|
16.729% |
|
10.484% |
6.245% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.520% |
3.653% |
8.479% |
13.707% |
|
73.632% |
|
43.418% |
29.631% |
0.583% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
0.696% |
3.325% |
10.248% |
|
85.684% |
|
24.301% |
59.849% |
1.507% |
0.027% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.234% |
1.378% |
63.861% |
34.527% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.505% |
34.049% |
65.195% |
0.251% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.251% |
99.749% |
Speculate Wasp 3.82 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.787% |
7.213% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.213% |
92.402% |
0.385% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.385% |
86.091% |
11.130% |
|
97.606% |
|
2.394% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
9.234% |
57.066% |
|
66.300% |
|
30.393% |
3.048% |
0.251% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.290% |
30.839% |
|
35.129% |
|
56.886% |
5.338% |
1.812% |
0.635% |
0.176% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.350% |
|
0.350% |
|
5.156% |
51.990% |
21.509% |
12.396% |
5.723% |
2.321% |
|
0.555% |
|
0.489% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.506% |
|
0.506% |
|
2.853% |
23.889% |
20.927% |
21.382% |
15.651% |
11.472% |
|
3.320% |
|
3.031% |
0.289% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
|
0.100% |
|
1.776% |
7.995% |
25.608% |
20.565% |
17.774% |
17.841% |
|
8.341% |
|
6.917% |
1.424% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.109% |
2.677% |
11.568% |
22.728% |
29.593% |
21.265% |
|
12.060% |
|
11.342% |
0.718% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.433% |
5.055% |
17.666% |
18.037% |
19.335% |
22.728% |
|
16.737% |
|
10.558% |
6.179% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.598% |
3.554% |
8.370% |
13.891% |
|
73.579% |
|
43.231% |
29.760% |
0.588% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
0.695% |
3.378% |
10.458% |
|
85.408% |
|
24.197% |
59.719% |
1.463% |
0.029% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.235% |
1.352% |
63.758% |
34.655% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.493% |
34.191% |
65.050% |
0.266% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.266% |
99.734% |
Speculate Wasp 3.82 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.704% |
7.296% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.296% |
92.311% |
0.393% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.393% |
86.256% |
11.133% |
|
97.782% |
|
2.218% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
9.064% |
56.803% |
|
65.867% |
|
30.772% |
3.064% |
0.289% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.287% |
31.059% |
|
35.346% |
|
56.690% |
5.483% |
1.724% |
0.539% |
0.181% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.370% |
|
0.370% |
|
5.062% |
51.600% |
21.974% |
12.649% |
5.602% |
2.227% |
|
0.516% |
|
0.485% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.506% |
|
0.506% |
|
2.869% |
24.141% |
21.042% |
21.478% |
15.491% |
11.378% |
|
3.095% |
|
2.796% |
0.299% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.119% |
|
0.119% |
|
1.810% |
7.899% |
25.575% |
20.516% |
17.923% |
17.753% |
|
8.405% |
|
7.052% |
1.353% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.112% |
2.697% |
11.447% |
22.636% |
29.401% |
21.665% |
|
12.042% |
|
11.298% |
0.744% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
0.010% |
|
0.467% |
5.111% |
17.362% |
17.949% |
19.660% |
22.585% |
|
16.856% |
|
10.685% |
6.171% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.528% |
3.552% |
8.414% |
13.850% |
|
73.651% |
|
43.109% |
29.933% |
0.609% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.059% |
0.673% |
3.328% |
10.505% |
|
85.435% |
|
24.348% |
59.618% |
1.440% |
0.029% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.227% |
1.378% |
63.385% |
35.010% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.473% |
34.566% |
64.698% |
0.263% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.263% |
99.737% |
Speculate Wasp 3.82 – RubiChess 1.6.1.1 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.452% |
7.548% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.548% |
91.980% |
0.472% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.472% |
86.875% |
10.558% |
|
97.905% |
|
2.095% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.654% |
57.327% |
|
65.981% |
|
30.744% |
3.021% |
0.248% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
3.999% |
31.112% |
|
35.111% |
|
56.908% |
5.389% |
1.781% |
0.596% |
0.185% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.354% |
|
0.354% |
|
5.026% |
51.679% |
21.873% |
12.682% |
5.515% |
2.366% |
|
0.505% |
|
0.457% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.511% |
|
0.511% |
|
2.788% |
24.307% |
21.103% |
21.551% |
15.251% |
11.458% |
|
3.031% |
|
2.756% |
0.275% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
|
0.127% |
|
1.872% |
7.965% |
25.365% |
20.505% |
17.957% |
17.729% |
|
8.480% |
|
7.134% |
1.346% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
2.578% |
11.161% |
22.693% |
29.581% |
21.652% |
|
12.235% |
|
11.488% |
0.747% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
|
0.011% |
|
0.467% |
5.056% |
17.821% |
17.751% |
19.611% |
22.704% |
|
16.579% |
|
10.433% |
6.146% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.590% |
3.534% |
8.616% |
13.908% |
|
73.347% |
|
43.367% |
29.342% |
0.638% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.058% |
0.682% |
3.284% |
10.153% |
|
85.823% |
|
24.120% |
60.125% |
1.553% |
0.025% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.245% |
1.450% |
63.674% |
34.631% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.521% |
34.135% |
65.087% |
0.257% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.257% |
99.743% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.70 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.89 |
14 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.82 |
0.97 |
3.32 |
0 |
1 |
72 |
21 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.65 |
0.97 |
4.37 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
47 |
28 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.10 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
22 |
46 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
28 |
28 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.74 |
8.12 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.66 |
0.97 |
8.50 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.96 |
9.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.94 |
9.37 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.5 |
14.25 |
0.86 |
9.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
32 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.0 |
12.79 |
0.86 |
12.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
12 |
26 |
47 |
4 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.84 |
0.93 |
14.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
63 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 01:50 |
217 |
Minic 1.32 |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 02:51 |
218 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 03:53 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:55 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:57 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 06:59 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:01 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:03 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:05 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:07 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:09 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:10 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:12 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:14 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:16 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:18 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:20 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:22 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:24 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:26 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:27 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:29 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:31 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:33 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |