For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.764% |
7.236% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.236% |
92.279% |
0.485% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.485% |
86.242% |
11.119% |
|
97.846% |
|
2.154% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.986% |
56.964% |
|
65.950% |
|
30.767% |
3.016% |
0.263% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.287% |
30.935% |
|
35.222% |
|
56.830% |
5.442% |
1.751% |
0.539% |
0.196% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.369% |
|
0.369% |
|
5.184% |
51.645% |
21.730% |
12.647% |
5.584% |
2.345% |
|
0.496% |
|
0.444% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.490% |
|
0.490% |
|
2.771% |
24.159% |
21.133% |
21.426% |
15.568% |
11.392% |
|
3.061% |
|
2.782% |
0.279% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.116% |
|
0.116% |
|
1.723% |
8.063% |
25.570% |
20.506% |
17.743% |
17.771% |
|
8.508% |
|
7.124% |
1.384% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.105% |
2.558% |
11.370% |
22.537% |
29.620% |
21.627% |
|
12.183% |
|
11.406% |
0.777% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.466% |
5.106% |
17.572% |
18.092% |
19.359% |
22.723% |
|
16.675% |
|
10.518% |
6.157% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.544% |
3.498% |
8.513% |
13.754% |
|
73.680% |
|
43.358% |
29.689% |
0.633% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
0.751% |
3.417% |
10.368% |
|
85.397% |
|
24.142% |
59.834% |
1.409% |
0.012% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.226% |
1.347% |
63.537% |
34.890% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.481% |
34.421% |
64.807% |
0.291% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.291% |
99.709% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.6.1.1 – Gull 20170410_256th 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.527% |
7.473% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.473% |
91.766% |
0.761% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.761% |
94.824% |
4.168% |
|
99.753% |
|
0.247% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
3.158% |
62.403% |
|
65.561% |
|
31.152% |
3.028% |
0.252% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
1.257% |
32.486% |
|
33.743% |
|
58.460% |
5.557% |
1.718% |
0.452% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.350% |
|
0.350% |
|
5.123% |
52.534% |
23.225% |
12.866% |
3.820% |
1.778% |
|
0.304% |
|
0.286% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.472% |
|
0.472% |
|
2.752% |
25.182% |
23.161% |
24.010% |
12.299% |
9.998% |
|
2.126% |
|
1.984% |
0.142% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
|
0.114% |
|
1.785% |
8.480% |
28.856% |
21.607% |
16.806% |
15.437% |
|
6.915% |
|
5.700% |
1.215% |
|
|
|
9. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.481% |
5.179% |
19.890% |
20.233% |
20.300% |
19.007% |
|
14.903% |
|
9.049% |
5.854% |
|
|
|
10. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
2.112% |
15.259% |
32.295% |
30.231% |
|
20.075% |
|
18.679% |
1.396% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.684% |
4.527% |
10.863% |
13.823% |
|
70.091% |
|
40.627% |
28.903% |
0.561% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.102% |
1.039% |
3.547% |
9.726% |
|
85.586% |
|
23.451% |
60.598% |
1.516% |
0.021% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.224% |
1.347% |
63.709% |
34.720% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.527% |
34.214% |
65.014% |
0.245% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.245% |
99.755% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.6.1.1 – Gull 20170410_256th 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.697% |
7.303% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.303% |
92.611% |
0.086% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.086% |
84.713% |
13.157% |
|
97.956% |
|
2.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.570% |
55.297% |
|
65.867% |
|
30.750% |
3.096% |
0.283% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.631% |
30.520% |
|
35.151% |
|
57.111% |
5.421% |
1.537% |
0.501% |
0.248% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.331% |
|
0.331% |
|
5.123% |
52.057% |
20.904% |
11.969% |
6.461% |
2.478% |
|
0.677% |
|
0.603% |
0.074% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.561% |
|
0.561% |
|
2.728% |
24.435% |
20.517% |
19.171% |
16.464% |
12.127% |
|
3.997% |
|
3.532% |
0.465% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
|
0.127% |
|
1.782% |
8.326% |
24.538% |
18.826% |
18.021% |
18.764% |
|
9.616% |
|
8.108% |
1.508% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
1.366% |
13.472% |
29.246% |
31.117% |
19.314% |
|
5.480% |
|
5.480% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.457% |
5.293% |
18.083% |
15.937% |
17.587% |
24.435% |
|
18.201% |
|
11.566% |
6.635% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.666% |
4.017% |
7.210% |
11.817% |
|
76.284% |
|
45.526% |
30.142% |
0.616% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.329% |
2.892% |
11.034% |
|
85.745% |
|
24.936% |
59.353% |
1.437% |
0.019% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.249% |
1.358% |
63.627% |
34.766% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.465% |
34.320% |
64.954% |
0.261% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.261% |
99.739% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.6.1.1 – Gull 20170410_256th 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.650% |
7.350% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.350% |
92.650% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
67.105% |
25.567% |
|
92.672% |
|
7.328% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
21.873% |
45.752% |
|
67.625% |
|
29.032% |
3.069% |
0.266% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
11.022% |
27.706% |
|
38.728% |
|
52.887% |
4.926% |
1.975% |
1.058% |
0.379% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.363% |
|
0.363% |
|
5.200% |
48.601% |
19.138% |
13.125% |
9.239% |
3.482% |
|
0.852% |
|
0.781% |
0.071% |
|
|
|
7. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.467% |
10.246% |
31.582% |
33.424% |
21.242% |
3.039% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.497% |
|
0.497% |
|
2.797% |
21.514% |
17.050% |
17.805% |
21.226% |
14.405% |
|
4.706% |
|
4.232% |
0.474% |
|
|
|
9. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.108% |
|
0.108% |
|
1.794% |
7.191% |
17.935% |
19.584% |
20.321% |
22.292% |
|
10.775% |
|
9.308% |
1.467% |
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
|
0.007% |
|
0.495% |
4.453% |
12.048% |
13.934% |
19.370% |
29.781% |
|
19.912% |
|
13.174% |
6.738% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.633% |
4.878% |
15.820% |
|
78.663% |
|
47.254% |
30.801% |
0.608% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.429% |
3.345% |
11.134% |
|
85.092% |
|
25.028% |
58.595% |
1.442% |
0.027% |
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.223% |
1.369% |
63.230% |
35.178% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.485% |
34.720% |
64.530% |
0.265% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.265% |
99.735% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.70 |
0.95 |
1.15 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.89 |
14 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.0 |
18.82 |
0.97 |
3.32 |
0 |
1 |
72 |
21 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.65 |
0.97 |
4.37 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
47 |
28 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.10 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
22 |
46 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
28 |
28 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.14 |
2.72 |
8.12 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.66 |
0.97 |
8.50 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.96 |
9.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.0 |
14.28 |
0.94 |
9.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
12.5 |
14.25 |
0.86 |
9.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.34 |
0.86 |
11.27 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
32 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.0 |
12.79 |
0.86 |
12.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
12 |
26 |
47 |
4 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.84 |
0.93 |
14.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
63 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 03:55 |
219 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 04:57 |
220 |
Pedone 2.0 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 05:59 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 07:01 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:03 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:05 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:07 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:09 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:11 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:13 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:14 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:16 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:18 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:20 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:22 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:24 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:26 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:28 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:30 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:32 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:34 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:35 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |