For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
92.679% |
7.321% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
7.321% |
92.602% |
0.077% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.077% |
85.121% |
12.784% |
|
97.982% |
|
2.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
10.112% |
55.769% |
|
65.881% |
|
30.800% |
3.114% |
0.203% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.690% |
30.447% |
|
35.137% |
|
57.386% |
5.341% |
1.415% |
0.475% |
0.217% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.384% |
|
0.384% |
|
5.172% |
53.200% |
21.284% |
10.989% |
6.316% |
1.975% |
|
0.680% |
|
0.564% |
0.116% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.503% |
|
0.503% |
|
2.795% |
25.500% |
20.884% |
19.082% |
17.160% |
10.009% |
|
4.067% |
|
3.405% |
0.662% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.113% |
|
0.113% |
|
1.731% |
8.427% |
25.883% |
18.636% |
16.633% |
19.438% |
|
9.139% |
|
7.813% |
1.326% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
1.556% |
14.733% |
28.186% |
31.882% |
18.519% |
|
5.115% |
|
5.115% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.089% |
2.853% |
15.027% |
18.713% |
19.864% |
30.565% |
|
12.889% |
|
10.784% |
2.105% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.571% |
3.917% |
7.635% |
12.067% |
|
75.801% |
|
40.749% |
34.344% |
0.708% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.293% |
7.398% |
|
92.309% |
|
31.414% |
60.507% |
0.388% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.156% |
0.940% |
63.941% |
34.963% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.963% |
64.776% |
0.261% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.261% |
99.739% |
Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Fire 021819 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
81.741% |
18.259% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
18.259% |
81.683% |
0.058% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.058% |
73.203% |
22.898% |
|
96.159% |
|
3.841% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
23.957% |
63.006% |
|
86.963% |
|
13.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.782% |
14.096% |
|
16.878% |
|
75.442% |
5.478% |
1.463% |
0.507% |
0.203% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.658% |
55.029% |
21.231% |
11.090% |
6.274% |
2.002% |
|
0.716% |
|
0.573% |
0.143% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.298% |
26.233% |
20.961% |
19.113% |
17.197% |
10.004% |
|
4.194% |
|
3.523% |
0.671% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.639% |
8.553% |
25.528% |
18.364% |
16.907% |
19.818% |
|
9.191% |
|
7.750% |
1.441% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
1.575% |
14.804% |
28.550% |
31.351% |
18.647% |
|
5.065% |
|
5.065% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.077% |
3.125% |
15.468% |
18.510% |
20.197% |
30.144% |
|
12.479% |
|
10.347% |
2.132% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.545% |
3.866% |
7.616% |
11.962% |
|
76.004% |
|
41.216% |
34.061% |
0.727% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.255% |
7.394% |
|
92.351% |
|
31.372% |
60.622% |
0.357% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.154% |
0.930% |
64.114% |
34.802% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.802% |
64.948% |
0.250% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.250% |
99.750% |
Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
94.506% |
5.494% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
5.494% |
94.447% |
0.059% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.059% |
86.733% |
11.067% |
|
97.859% |
|
2.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
8.796% |
62.539% |
|
71.335% |
|
27.397% |
1.268% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
4.412% |
25.751% |
|
30.163% |
|
62.195% |
5.497% |
1.450% |
0.470% |
0.198% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.225% |
|
0.225% |
|
4.271% |
54.077% |
21.478% |
10.906% |
6.402% |
1.971% |
|
0.670% |
|
0.568% |
0.102% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.418% |
|
0.418% |
|
2.293% |
25.981% |
20.756% |
19.161% |
17.549% |
9.853% |
|
3.989% |
|
3.299% |
0.690% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.618% |
8.574% |
25.772% |
18.641% |
16.578% |
19.436% |
|
9.381% |
|
7.955% |
1.426% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
1.578% |
14.896% |
28.251% |
31.667% |
18.642% |
|
4.958% |
|
4.958% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.077% |
3.020% |
15.049% |
18.634% |
19.760% |
30.643% |
|
12.817% |
|
10.635% |
2.182% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.599% |
3.937% |
7.574% |
11.950% |
|
75.935% |
|
41.018% |
34.141% |
0.776% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.272% |
7.478% |
|
92.250% |
|
31.401% |
60.463% |
0.386% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.166% |
0.996% |
64.269% |
34.569% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.569% |
65.175% |
0.256% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.256% |
99.744% |
Speculate Pedone 2.0 – Fire 021819 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.682% |
1.318% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.318% |
98.617% |
0.065% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.065% |
92.135% |
7.085% |
|
99.285% |
|
0.715% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.126% |
47.354% |
|
49.480% |
|
43.850% |
6.109% |
0.547% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
5.674% |
43.769% |
|
49.443% |
|
43.260% |
4.996% |
1.463% |
0.561% |
0.249% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
0.660% |
|
0.660% |
|
6.552% |
51.749% |
21.027% |
10.830% |
6.463% |
2.022% |
|
0.697% |
|
0.591% |
0.106% |
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.873% |
|
0.873% |
|
3.549% |
24.368% |
21.039% |
19.024% |
17.287% |
9.862% |
|
3.998% |
|
3.353% |
0.645% |
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.259% |
|
0.259% |
|
1.993% |
8.385% |
25.830% |
18.554% |
16.811% |
19.270% |
|
8.898% |
|
7.530% |
1.368% |
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
1.643% |
14.966% |
28.501% |
31.671% |
18.274% |
|
4.934% |
|
4.934% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.070% |
2.743% |
14.613% |
18.661% |
19.617% |
31.352% |
|
12.944% |
|
10.796% |
2.148% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.515% |
3.855% |
7.611% |
11.655% |
|
76.357% |
|
41.277% |
34.383% |
0.697% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.291% |
7.537% |
|
92.172% |
|
31.372% |
60.418% |
0.382% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.147% |
0.932% |
64.072% |
34.849% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.849% |
64.886% |
0.265% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.265% |
99.735% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
19.5 |
22.70 |
0.95 |
1.14 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.89 |
14 |
84 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.65 |
0.87 |
3.37 |
0 |
1 |
69 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.66 |
0.98 |
4.33 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
46 |
28 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.0 |
16.97 |
0.96 |
5.10 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
21 |
46 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
12.5 |
15.31 |
0.97 |
7.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
29 |
28 |
15 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.12 |
2.72 |
8.15 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
12.5 |
14.67 |
0.97 |
8.51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.41 |
0.75 |
9.11 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.0 |
14.37 |
0.96 |
9.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.22 |
0.84 |
9.51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.34 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
32 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.74 |
12.26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
29 |
49 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.84 |
0.93 |
14.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
64 |
27 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.29 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 05:59 |
221 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 07:01 |
222 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 08:03 |
223 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-24 09:05 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:06 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:08 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:10 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:12 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:14 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:16 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:18 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:20 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:22 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:24 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:26 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:27 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:29 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:31 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:33 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:35 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |