For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.778% |
1.222% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.222% |
98.712% |
0.066% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.066% |
94.902% |
4.481% |
|
99.449% |
|
0.551% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.446% |
53.233% |
|
55.679% |
|
40.178% |
3.559% |
0.584% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.586% |
41.629% |
|
44.215% |
|
52.656% |
2.506% |
0.553% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.807% |
53.202% |
26.212% |
10.457% |
5.910% |
1.412% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.657% |
|
0.657% |
|
3.610% |
25.477% |
24.661% |
20.583% |
17.942% |
6.748% |
|
0.322% |
|
0.322% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
9.919% |
25.486% |
23.729% |
17.049% |
19.190% |
|
4.521% |
|
4.521% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.689% |
11.682% |
24.796% |
34.180% |
21.447% |
|
6.206% |
|
6.206% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.092% |
3.637% |
10.491% |
17.558% |
17.479% |
37.191% |
|
13.552% |
|
11.430% |
2.122% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.331% |
2.807% |
7.440% |
9.459% |
|
79.952% |
|
44.134% |
35.083% |
0.735% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.553% |
|
95.447% |
|
33.234% |
61.819% |
0.394% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.153% |
0.976% |
64.339% |
34.532% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
34.532% |
65.212% |
0.256% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.256% |
99.744% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – iCE 4.0.853 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.036% |
1.964% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.964% |
98.036% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.864% |
4.514% |
|
99.378% |
|
0.622% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.442% |
53.244% |
|
55.686% |
|
40.322% |
3.412% |
0.580% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.694% |
41.579% |
|
44.273% |
|
52.593% |
2.498% |
0.599% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.791% |
53.544% |
26.017% |
10.511% |
5.775% |
1.362% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.663% |
|
0.663% |
|
3.462% |
25.302% |
24.518% |
20.968% |
17.860% |
6.853% |
|
0.374% |
|
0.374% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.099% |
10.007% |
25.648% |
23.804% |
16.836% |
19.109% |
|
4.497% |
|
4.497% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.658% |
11.669% |
24.842% |
34.712% |
21.056% |
|
6.063% |
|
6.063% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.111% |
3.569% |
10.641% |
16.992% |
17.757% |
37.536% |
|
13.394% |
|
11.196% |
2.198% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.328% |
2.846% |
7.060% |
9.420% |
|
80.336% |
|
44.914% |
35.422% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.664% |
|
95.336% |
|
32.956% |
62.380% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
55.838% |
44.162% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
44.162% |
55.580% |
0.258% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.258% |
99.742% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.936% |
4.459% |
|
99.395% |
|
0.605% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.447% |
53.433% |
|
55.880% |
|
40.036% |
3.558% |
0.526% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.617% |
41.489% |
|
44.106% |
|
52.827% |
2.487% |
0.536% |
0.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.755% |
53.141% |
26.316% |
10.596% |
5.781% |
1.411% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.619% |
|
0.619% |
|
3.569% |
25.399% |
24.559% |
20.882% |
17.816% |
6.846% |
|
0.310% |
|
0.310% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.107% |
10.131% |
25.649% |
23.511% |
16.937% |
19.103% |
|
4.562% |
|
4.562% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.657% |
11.541% |
24.793% |
34.663% |
21.213% |
|
6.133% |
|
6.133% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.101% |
3.612% |
10.551% |
17.341% |
17.444% |
37.177% |
|
13.774% |
|
11.534% |
2.240% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.322% |
2.833% |
7.359% |
9.589% |
|
79.882% |
|
44.141% |
34.807% |
0.934% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.661% |
|
95.339% |
|
33.320% |
62.019% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.934% |
75.354% |
23.712% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
23.712% |
75.999% |
0.289% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.289% |
99.711% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – iCE 4.0.853 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
99.604% |
0.396% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
0.396% |
94.610% |
4.415% |
|
99.421% |
|
0.579% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.391% |
53.459% |
|
55.850% |
|
40.044% |
3.570% |
0.536% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.603% |
41.475% |
|
44.078% |
|
52.676% |
2.596% |
0.597% |
0.053% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.892% |
52.587% |
26.268% |
10.753% |
6.065% |
1.435% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.651% |
|
0.651% |
|
3.594% |
25.764% |
24.380% |
20.776% |
17.613% |
6.839% |
|
0.383% |
|
0.383% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.110% |
10.212% |
25.632% |
23.448% |
16.853% |
19.195% |
|
4.550% |
|
4.550% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.605% |
11.600% |
24.772% |
34.742% |
21.388% |
|
5.893% |
|
5.893% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.105% |
3.654% |
10.656% |
17.309% |
17.556% |
37.049% |
|
13.671% |
|
11.483% |
2.188% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.331% |
2.889% |
7.171% |
9.538% |
|
80.059% |
|
44.051% |
32.487% |
3.521% |
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.556% |
|
95.444% |
|
32.615% |
60.186% |
2.643% |
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.025% |
5.139% |
83.273% |
10.563% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
10.563% |
89.133% |
0.304% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.304% |
99.696% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
20.5 |
23.15 |
0.83 |
1.06 |
94 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
18.0 |
21.45 |
0.90 |
1.97 |
5 |
92 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.64 |
0.87 |
3.24 |
0 |
1 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.21 |
0.87 |
4.59 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
45 |
34 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.5 |
16.85 |
0.86 |
5.00 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
44 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
13.0 |
15.22 |
0.86 |
7.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
27 |
28 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.12 |
2.71 |
8.11 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
13.0 |
14.76 |
0.86 |
8.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.5 |
14.49 |
0.86 |
8.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.42 |
0.75 |
9.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
20 |
14 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.21 |
0.83 |
9.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
9 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
20 |
33 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.75 |
12.31 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
12 |
30 |
50 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.85 |
0.93 |
14.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
64 |
26 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.17 |
0.94 |
14.68 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
68 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.29 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 09:27 |
224 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-24 10:29 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:31 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:33 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:35 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:37 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:39 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:41 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:43 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:45 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:47 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:49 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:51 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:53 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:55 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:57 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:59 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |