For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.045% |
1.955% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.955% |
98.045% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
95.005% |
4.388% |
|
99.393% |
|
0.607% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.484% |
53.469% |
|
55.953% |
|
39.918% |
3.504% |
0.625% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.511% |
41.502% |
|
44.013% |
|
52.958% |
2.419% |
0.567% |
0.043% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.721% |
53.580% |
26.048% |
10.564% |
5.687% |
1.400% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.641% |
|
0.641% |
|
3.580% |
25.372% |
24.466% |
20.708% |
17.989% |
6.889% |
|
0.355% |
|
0.355% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.115% |
9.825% |
25.661% |
23.787% |
17.038% |
19.139% |
|
4.435% |
|
4.435% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.716% |
11.774% |
24.714% |
34.130% |
21.409% |
|
6.257% |
|
6.257% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.101% |
3.572% |
10.520% |
17.338% |
17.781% |
37.118% |
|
13.570% |
|
11.387% |
2.183% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.339% |
2.846% |
7.375% |
9.355% |
|
80.073% |
|
44.452% |
35.621% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.690% |
|
95.310% |
|
33.114% |
62.196% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
56.159% |
43.841% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
43.841% |
55.890% |
0.269% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.269% |
99.731% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.081% |
1.919% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.919% |
98.081% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.947% |
4.488% |
|
99.435% |
|
0.565% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.441% |
53.138% |
|
55.579% |
|
40.231% |
3.615% |
0.575% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.612% |
41.777% |
|
44.389% |
|
52.617% |
2.394% |
0.563% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.750% |
53.643% |
26.004% |
10.485% |
5.767% |
1.351% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.597% |
|
0.597% |
|
3.647% |
25.344% |
24.569% |
20.957% |
17.704% |
6.851% |
|
0.331% |
|
0.331% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
9.988% |
25.785% |
23.699% |
17.143% |
18.845% |
|
4.440% |
|
4.440% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.575% |
11.553% |
24.860% |
34.639% |
21.338% |
|
6.035% |
|
6.035% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.090% |
3.435% |
10.634% |
17.165% |
17.508% |
37.473% |
|
13.695% |
|
11.520% |
2.175% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.317% |
2.797% |
7.239% |
9.459% |
|
80.182% |
|
44.580% |
35.602% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.683% |
|
95.317% |
|
33.094% |
62.223% |
|
|
|
13. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
63.169% |
36.831% |
|
14. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
36.831% |
63.169% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.053% |
1.947% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.947% |
98.053% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
95.018% |
4.422% |
|
99.440% |
|
0.560% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.423% |
53.340% |
|
55.763% |
|
40.170% |
3.507% |
0.560% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.559% |
41.611% |
|
44.170% |
|
52.771% |
2.477% |
0.541% |
0.041% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.799% |
53.737% |
26.066% |
10.253% |
5.717% |
1.428% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.627% |
|
0.627% |
|
3.532% |
25.401% |
24.445% |
20.791% |
18.031% |
6.856% |
|
0.317% |
|
0.317% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.083% |
9.769% |
25.904% |
23.825% |
16.803% |
19.119% |
|
4.497% |
|
4.497% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.597% |
11.690% |
24.914% |
34.210% |
21.236% |
|
6.353% |
|
6.353% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.085% |
3.495% |
10.486% |
17.424% |
17.806% |
37.141% |
|
13.563% |
|
11.315% |
2.248% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.308% |
2.752% |
7.433% |
9.638% |
|
79.852% |
|
44.546% |
35.306% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.582% |
|
95.418% |
|
32.972% |
62.446% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
61.609% |
38.391% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
38.391% |
61.609% |
|
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Igel 2.3.1 – Pirarucu 3.2.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
|
11-15. |
|
11. |
12. |
13. |
14. |
15. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
98.063% |
1.937% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
1.937% |
98.063% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
|
|
|
94.897% |
4.496% |
|
99.393% |
|
0.607% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Pedone 2.0 |
|
|
|
2.469% |
53.079% |
|
55.548% |
|
40.391% |
3.478% |
0.583% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
2.634% |
41.779% |
|
44.413% |
|
52.481% |
2.481% |
0.577% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Nemorino 5.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.744% |
53.408% |
26.067% |
10.509% |
5.832% |
1.440% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
PeSTO 2.210 |
|
|
|
|
0.646% |
|
0.646% |
|
3.557% |
25.280% |
24.408% |
20.852% |
18.044% |
6.882% |
|
0.331% |
|
0.331% |
|
|
|
|
8. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.128% |
10.084% |
25.747% |
23.843% |
16.764% |
18.982% |
|
4.452% |
|
4.452% |
|
|
|
|
9. |
Gull 20170410_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.677% |
11.779% |
24.798% |
33.923% |
21.404% |
|
6.419% |
|
6.419% |
|
|
|
|
10. |
Texel 1.08a13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.092% |
3.574% |
10.491% |
17.125% |
18.074% |
37.204% |
|
13.440% |
|
11.208% |
2.232% |
|
|
|
11. |
Minic 1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
0.348% |
2.825% |
7.363% |
9.488% |
|
79.958% |
|
44.749% |
35.209% |
|
|
|
12. |
Demolito 20191229 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.600% |
|
95.400% |
|
32.841% |
62.559% |
|
|
|
13. |
iCE 4.0.853 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
81.223% |
18.777% |
|
14. |
Igel 2.3.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
18.777% |
80.272% |
0.951% |
15. |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
0.951% |
99.049% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Fire 021819 |
20.5 |
23.16 |
0.83 |
1.08 |
92 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
19.0 |
21.72 |
0.81 |
1.94 |
8 |
91 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 |
16.5 |
18.64 |
0.86 |
3.25 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0 |
15.0 |
17.21 |
0.87 |
4.59 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
44 |
34 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
14.5 |
16.85 |
0.86 |
5.00 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
44 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 |
13.0 |
15.23 |
0.86 |
7.37 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
27 |
29 |
17 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Wasp 3.75/3.82 |
0.0 |
15.12 |
2.71 |
8.10 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
13.0 |
14.76 |
0.86 |
8.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
12.5 |
14.49 |
0.86 |
8.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Gull 191130/20170410_256th |
13.0 |
14.41 |
0.75 |
9.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
20 |
14 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
12.5 |
14.20 |
0.83 |
9.62 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
9 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
21 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 |
11.5 |
13.33 |
0.86 |
11.41 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
20 |
33 |
23 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
Demolito 20191225/20191229 |
11.5 |
12.85 |
0.74 |
12.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
12 |
30 |
51 |
1 |
0 |
14 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
9.0 |
10.58 |
0.84 |
14.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
60 |
34 |
15 |
Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 |
8.0 |
10.16 |
0.94 |
14.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
34 |
61 |
16 |
Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 |
5.5 |
7.28 |
0.93 |
15.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-01-24 10:23 |
225 |
Igel 2.3.1 |
Minic 1.32 |
2020-01-24 11:25 |
226 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-01-24 12:27 |
227 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
2020-01-24 13:29 |
228 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-01-24 14:31 |
229 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Pedone 2.0 |
2020-01-24 15:33 |
230 |
Fire 021819 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
2020-01-24 16:35 |
231 |
Demolito 20191229 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
2020-01-24 17:37 |
232 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
Wasp 3.82 |
2020-01-24 18:39 |
233 |
Minic 1.32 |
Gull 20170410_256th |
2020-01-24 19:40 |
234 |
Wasp 3.82 |
Demolito 20191229 |
2020-01-24 20:42 |
235 |
RubiChess 1.6.1.1 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-01-24 21:44 |
236 |
Texel 1.08a13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-01-24 22:46 |
237 |
Pedone 2.0 |
PeSTO 2.210 |
2020-01-24 23:48 |
238 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
iCE 4.0.853 |
2020-01-25 00:50 |
239 |
Nemorino 5.27 |
Pirarucu 3.2.4 |
2020-01-25 01:52 |
240 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Igel 2.3.1 |