Jan 24 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 97.978% 2.022% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 2.022% 97.978% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 94.843% 4.531% 99.374% 0.626%
4. Pedone 2.0 2.475% 53.076% 55.551% 40.403% 3.521% 0.525%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 2.682% 41.806% 44.488% 52.566% 2.380% 0.535% 0.031%
6. Nemorino 5.27 2.775% 53.634% 26.100% 10.874% 5.412% 1.205%
7. PeSTO 2.210 0.587% 0.587% 3.433% 25.215% 24.741% 22.262% 17.091% 6.671%
8. Winter 0.7.4 0.098% 9.970% 25.751% 24.476% 17.476% 22.229%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 1.679% 11.744% 25.072% 40.919% 20.586%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.099% 3.601% 10.604% 17.285% 19.102% 42.630% 6.679% 6.679%
11. Demolito 20191229 6.679% 93.321% 55.533% 37.788%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 37.788% 62.212%
13. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 62.377% 37.623%
14. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 37.623% 62.377%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 95.059% 4.371% 99.430% 0.570%
4. Pedone 2.0 2.398% 53.114% 55.512% 40.373% 3.569% 0.546%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 2.543% 41.885% 44.428% 52.479% 2.500% 0.562% 0.031%
6. Nemorino 5.27 2.821% 53.085% 26.157% 11.251% 5.465% 1.221%
7. PeSTO 2.210 0.630% 0.630% 3.529% 25.578% 24.743% 21.839% 17.046% 6.635%
8. Winter 0.7.4 0.117% 9.930% 25.562% 24.538% 17.416% 22.437%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 1.707% 11.702% 24.943% 40.328% 21.320%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.111% 3.631% 10.728% 17.398% 19.745% 41.688% 6.699% 6.699%
11. Demolito 20191229 6.699% 93.301% 55.891% 37.410%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 37.410% 62.590%
13. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 62.314% 37.686%
14. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 37.686% 62.314%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 95.089% 4.328% 99.417% 0.583%
4. Pedone 2.0 2.374% 53.341% 55.715% 40.260% 3.468% 0.557%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 2.537% 41.688% 44.225% 52.666% 2.497% 0.564% 0.048%
6. Nemorino 5.27 2.726% 53.388% 26.024% 11.139% 5.542% 1.181%
7. PeSTO 2.210 0.643% 0.643% 3.552% 25.415% 24.574% 22.218% 16.933% 6.665%
8. Winter 0.7.4 0.110% 9.938% 26.030% 24.583% 17.279% 22.060%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 1.717% 11.681% 24.868% 41.003% 20.731%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.103% 3.577% 10.570% 17.144% 19.243% 42.496% 6.867% 6.867%
11. Demolito 20191229 6.867% 93.133% 55.333% 37.800%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 37.800% 62.200%
13. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 62.103% 37.897%
14. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 37.897% 62.103%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.2.4 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 96.838% 3.162% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 3.162% 96.838% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 94.879% 4.515% 99.394% 0.606%
4. Pedone 2.0 2.451% 53.248% 55.699% 40.147% 3.599% 0.555%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 2.670% 41.602% 44.272% 52.638% 2.474% 0.570% 0.046%
6. Nemorino 5.27 2.784% 53.402% 26.203% 11.062% 5.387% 1.162%
7. PeSTO 2.210 0.635% 0.635% 3.629% 25.169% 24.473% 22.426% 16.982% 6.686%
8. Winter 0.7.4 0.104% 10.037% 25.745% 24.231% 17.564% 22.319%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 1.675% 11.838% 24.925% 41.464% 20.098%
10. Texel 1.08a13 0.092% 3.644% 10.616% 17.310% 18.603% 42.944% 6.791% 6.791%
11. Demolito 20191229 6.791% 93.209% 55.640% 37.569%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 37.569% 62.431%
13. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 61.909% 38.091%
14. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 38.091% 61.909%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Fire 021819 20.5 23.16 0.83 1.08 92 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 19.0 21.71 0.81 1.94 8 91 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 16.5 18.64 0.87 3.25 0 0 79 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Pedone 1.9/2.0 15.0 17.21 0.87 4.59 0 0 7 45 34 12 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 14.5 16.85 0.85 5.00 0 0 3 27 44 19 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 13.0 15.22 0.86 7.36 0 0 0 1 5 27 29 18 11 6 3 1 0 0 0
7 Wasp 3.75/3.82 0.0 15.12 2.72 8.06 0 1 9 10 9 14 8 6 6 6 7 6 10 3 4
8 PeSTO 2.210 13.0 14.76 0.86 8.28 0 0 0 1 3 12 20 21 19 15 8 2 0 0 0
9 Winter 0.7.4 12.5 14.50 0.86 8.87 0 0 0 0 1 7 15 19 19 18 14 4 1 0 0
10 Gull 191130/20170410_256th 13.0 14.41 0.75 9.09 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 19 22 22 14 5 1 0 0
11 Texel 1.08a13 12.5 14.21 0.84 9.50 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 14 18 22 22 7 2 0 0
12 Demolito 20191225/20191229 11.5 12.85 0.74 12.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 16 38 38 1 0
13 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 11.5 12.85 0.74 12.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 15 36 39 1 0
14 iCE 4.0.853 9.0 10.58 0.84 14.41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 47 47
15 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 9.5 10.56 0.71 14.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 47 49
16 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 6.0 7.36 0.82 15.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-24 12:16 227 iCE 4.0.853 Nemorino 5.27
2020-01-24 13:18 228 PeSTO 2.210 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-01-24 14:20 229 Winter 0.7.4 Pedone 2.0
2020-01-24 15:22 230 Fire 021819 Texel 1.08a13
2020-01-24 16:24 231 Demolito 20191229 RubiChess 1.6.1.1
2020-01-24 17:26 232 Gull 20170410_256th Wasp 3.82
2020-01-24 18:28 233 Minic 1.32 Gull 20170410_256th
2020-01-24 19:30 234 Wasp 3.82 Demolito 20191229
2020-01-24 20:31 235 RubiChess 1.6.1.1 Fire 021819
2020-01-24 21:33 236 Texel 1.08a13 Winter 0.7.4
2020-01-24 22:35 237 Pedone 2.0 PeSTO 2.210
2020-01-24 23:37 238 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 iCE 4.0.853
2020-01-25 00:39 239 Nemorino 5.27 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-25 01:41 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Igel 2.3.1
Posted inBayesElo