For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 100.000% 100.000%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000% 100.000%
5. Pedone 2.0 100.000%
6. Nemorino 5.27 53.721% 24.060% 22.219%
7. Winter 0.7.4 46.279% 53.721%
8. PeSTO 2.210 46.279% 53.721%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 22.219% 77.781%
10. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
11. Demolito 20191229 100.000% 100.000%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 100.000%
13. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 76.063% 23.937%
14. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 23.937% 76.063%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – iCE 4.0.853 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 100.000% 100.000%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000% 100.000%
5. Pedone 2.0 100.000%
6. Nemorino 5.27 53.856% 24.057% 22.087%
7. Winter 0.7.4 46.144% 53.856%
8. PeSTO 2.210 46.144% 53.856%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 22.087% 77.913%
10. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
11. Demolito 20191229 100.000% 100.000%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 100.000%
13. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 64.076% 35.924%
14. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 35.924% 64.076%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – iCE 4.0.853 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 100.000% 100.000%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000% 100.000%
5. Pedone 2.0 100.000%
6. Nemorino 5.27 53.670% 23.878% 22.452%
7. Winter 0.7.4 46.330% 53.670%
8. PeSTO 2.210 46.330% 53.670%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 22.452% 77.548%
10. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
11. Demolito 20191229 100.000% 100.000%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 100.000%
13. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 84.548% 15.452%
14. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 15.452% 84.548%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – iCE 4.0.853 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11-15. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000% 100.000%
3. RubiChess 1.6.1.1 100.000% 100.000%
4. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000% 100.000%
5. Pedone 2.0 100.000%
6. Nemorino 5.27 53.545% 24.197% 22.258%
7. Winter 0.7.4 46.455% 53.545%
8. PeSTO 2.210 46.455% 53.545%
9. Gull 20170410_256th 22.258% 77.742%
10. Texel 1.08a13 100.000%
11. Demolito 20191229 100.000% 100.000%
12. Minic 1.32 100.000% 100.000%
13. iCE 4.0.853 100.000% 100.000%
14. Igel 2.3.1 100.000% 100.000%
15. Pirarucu 3.2.4 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Fire 021819 22.0 23.36 0.57 1.01 99 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 19.5 21.50 0.70 2.00 1 98 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1 17.5 18.65 0.60 3.15 0 0 86 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 15.5 17.32 0.73 4.35 0 0 4 63 27 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Pedone 1.9/2.0 15.5 16.57 0.61 5.14 0 0 0 13 60 26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Wasp 3.75/3.82 0.0 15.05 2.71 8.08 0 1 9 10 10 16 7 5 5 5 7 6 9 4 5
7 Winter 0.7.4 14.0 15.02 0.61 7.28 0 0 0 0 1 28 35 19 11 5 1 0 0 0 0
8 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27 13.0 14.64 0.74 8.23 0 0 0 0 0 13 23 22 18 13 7 2 0 0 0
9 PeSTO 2.210 13.5 14.43 0.61 8.77 0 0 0 0 0 6 15 22 24 21 11 1 0 0 0
10 Gull 191130/20170410_256th 13.5 14.43 0.61 8.78 0 0 0 0 0 6 15 22 24 21 11 1 0 0 0
11 Texel 1.08a13 13.0 13.94 0.60 10.04 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 16 28 33 8 1 0 0
12 Demolito 20191225/20191229 12.0 12.93 0.61 12.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 16 42 35 1 0
13 Minic 1.19_dev/1.22/1.24/1.25/1.26/1.32 12.0 12.85 0.60 12.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 13 39 43 1 0
14 iCE 4.0.853 10.0 11.15 0.72 14.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 67 24
15 Igel 2.1.2 next.2_TCEC_TTFIX/2.2.2_dev1/2.3.0/2.3.1-c2/2.3.1 9.5 10.58 0.71 14.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 26 71
16 Pirarucu 3.0.7/3.2.4 6.5 7.60 0.72 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-01-25 01:07 239 Nemorino 5.27 Pirarucu 3.2.4
2020-01-25 02:09 240 Defenchess 2.3_dev Igel 2.3.1