For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 60.873% 24.647% 11.156% 2.727% 99.403% 0.486% 0.088% 0.021% 0.002%
2. Fire 021819 21.617% 37.295% 27.706% 9.679% 96.297% 2.623% 0.774% 0.232% 0.057% 0.015% 0.002%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 15.731% 29.058% 33.029% 14.816% 92.634% 4.834% 1.677% 0.597% 0.188% 0.060% 0.009% 0.001%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.594% 7.162% 18.765% 36.921% 64.442% 18.110% 9.188% 4.687% 2.212% 0.990% 0.340% 0.031%
5. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.112% 0.932% 4.221% 13.572% 18.837% 23.081% 19.397% 14.988% 10.853% 7.522% 4.124% 1.029% 0.169%
6. rofChade 2.213 0.061% 0.602% 2.868% 10.550% 14.081% 19.209% 20.790% 18.192% 13.610% 8.718% 4.346% 0.904% 0.148% 0.002% 0.002%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.012% 0.243% 1.527% 6.421% 8.203% 14.833% 18.690% 18.718% 16.020% 12.503% 7.878% 2.650% 0.504% 0.001% 0.001%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.035% 0.382% 2.378% 2.795% 7.019% 11.502% 15.638% 19.470% 20.075% 17.265% 5.317% 0.910% 0.009% 0.009%
9. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.015% 0.172% 1.597% 1.784% 5.359% 9.487% 13.782% 18.026% 20.717% 19.960% 8.312% 2.518% 0.055% 0.053% 0.002%
10. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.011% 0.172% 1.329% 1.512% 4.311% 7.933% 11.812% 16.109% 20.737% 23.511% 10.619% 3.401% 0.055% 0.054% 0.001%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.002% 0.010% 0.012% 0.091% 0.314% 0.842% 2.149% 5.079% 12.504% 37.242% 38.892% 2.875% 2.652% 0.223%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.044% 0.160% 0.491% 1.306% 3.576% 10.021% 33.202% 47.747% 3.453% 3.197% 0.254% 0.002%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.002% 0.017% 0.316% 2.687% 96.978% 47.842% 43.554% 5.421% 0.161%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.004% 0.023% 0.377% 3.012% 96.584% 44.820% 47.848% 3.843% 0.073%
15. PeSTO 2.211 0.012% 99.988% 1.355% 7.770% 76.393% 14.470%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 0.015% 0.348% 14.341% 85.296%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 65.942% 22.928% 8.956% 1.818% 99.644% 0.302% 0.045% 0.009%
2. Fire 021819 18.876% 38.740% 28.828% 9.858% 96.302% 2.652% 0.736% 0.233% 0.065% 0.010% 0.002%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 13.716% 29.620% 34.303% 14.855% 92.494% 4.868% 1.774% 0.632% 0.170% 0.053% 0.009%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.323% 6.855% 18.715% 37.324% 64.217% 18.077% 9.178% 4.767% 2.322% 1.033% 0.366% 0.037% 0.003%
5. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.091% 0.953% 4.082% 13.622% 18.748% 23.234% 19.398% 14.809% 10.940% 7.416% 4.215% 1.071% 0.169%
6. rofChade 2.213 0.041% 0.613% 2.878% 10.517% 14.049% 19.426% 20.812% 18.185% 13.393% 8.712% 4.370% 0.930% 0.123%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.008% 0.228% 1.533% 6.669% 8.438% 14.675% 18.632% 18.557% 15.822% 12.631% 8.059% 2.649% 0.537%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.001% 0.044% 0.366% 2.419% 2.830% 6.978% 11.486% 15.788% 19.446% 20.204% 17.089% 5.269% 0.904% 0.006% 0.006%
9. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.002% 0.010% 0.171% 1.544% 1.727% 5.412% 9.653% 13.785% 17.974% 20.787% 19.826% 8.315% 2.484% 0.037% 0.037%
10. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.009% 0.167% 1.356% 1.532% 4.270% 7.855% 11.824% 16.389% 20.537% 23.260% 10.878% 3.422% 0.033% 0.032% 0.001%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.001% 0.013% 0.014% 0.076% 0.277% 0.916% 2.160% 5.013% 12.800% 37.221% 39.147% 2.376% 2.212% 0.163% 0.001%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.005% 0.005% 0.030% 0.154% 0.495% 1.319% 3.604% 9.982% 33.114% 48.423% 2.874% 2.653% 0.221%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.009% 0.333% 2.717% 96.941% 53.016% 38.499% 5.269% 0.157%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.013% 0.182% 2.063% 97.742% 40.412% 52.484% 4.741% 0.105%
15. PeSTO 2.211 0.001% 0.008% 99.991% 1.605% 8.233% 75.669% 14.484%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 0.027% 0.399% 14.320% 85.254%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 56.636% 26.581% 12.703% 3.312% 99.232% 0.611% 0.131% 0.022% 0.004%
2. Fire 021819 23.972% 35.534% 26.874% 9.858% 96.238% 2.636% 0.808% 0.233% 0.070% 0.012% 0.003%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 17.305% 28.554% 32.207% 14.377% 92.443% 4.897% 1.754% 0.612% 0.232% 0.050% 0.012%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.859% 7.290% 18.772% 36.743% 64.664% 17.874% 9.080% 4.742% 2.306% 0.990% 0.297% 0.044% 0.003%
5. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.135% 1.082% 4.260% 13.586% 19.063% 23.349% 19.216% 14.870% 10.878% 7.249% 4.143% 1.061% 0.170% 0.001% 0.001%
6. rofChade 2.213 0.066% 0.616% 2.924% 10.179% 13.785% 19.329% 21.095% 17.942% 13.546% 8.696% 4.514% 0.944% 0.148% 0.001% 0.001%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.026% 0.269% 1.566% 6.649% 8.510% 14.649% 18.381% 18.820% 16.095% 12.389% 8.012% 2.624% 0.518% 0.002% 0.002%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.048% 0.354% 2.390% 2.792% 6.944% 11.646% 15.853% 19.213% 20.260% 17.018% 5.320% 0.946% 0.008% 0.008%
9. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.009% 0.164% 1.579% 1.752% 5.300% 9.544% 13.677% 18.014% 21.002% 19.791% 8.354% 2.501% 0.065% 0.065%
10. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.001% 0.017% 0.176% 1.319% 1.513% 4.279% 7.870% 11.867% 16.225% 20.538% 23.465% 10.812% 3.373% 0.058% 0.058%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.006% 0.006% 0.090% 0.290% 0.838% 2.102% 5.145% 12.680% 37.007% 38.753% 3.089% 2.820% 0.269%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.002% 0.002% 0.042% 0.185% 0.524% 1.315% 3.664% 10.032% 33.052% 47.125% 4.059% 3.694% 0.363% 0.002%
13. Winter 0.7.4 0.004% 0.021% 0.420% 3.750% 95.805% 48.399% 44.507% 2.862% 0.037%
14. Nemorino 5.28 0.001% 0.012% 0.362% 2.704% 96.921% 43.780% 47.426% 5.567% 0.148%
15. PeSTO 2.211 0.009% 99.991% 1.163% 7.164% 76.941% 14.723%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 0.009% 0.271% 14.628% 85.092%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 47.241% 29.016% 16.979% 5.297% 98.533% 1.111% 0.284% 0.060% 0.011% 0.001%
2. Fire 021819 28.780% 33.073% 25.086% 9.307% 96.246% 2.630% 0.823% 0.217% 0.070% 0.011% 0.003%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 21.227% 27.623% 29.830% 13.936% 92.616% 4.753% 1.711% 0.641% 0.200% 0.069% 0.009% 0.001%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 2.376% 8.032% 18.409% 35.632% 64.449% 17.895% 9.152% 4.802% 2.294% 1.025% 0.341% 0.038% 0.004%
5. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.230% 1.192% 4.405% 13.552% 19.379% 23.055% 19.156% 14.932% 10.863% 7.254% 4.095% 1.091% 0.174% 0.001% 0.001%
6. rofChade 2.213 0.108% 0.684% 2.945% 10.281% 14.018% 19.066% 21.068% 17.865% 13.533% 8.832% 4.444% 1.021% 0.151% 0.002% 0.002%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.029% 0.279% 1.576% 6.595% 8.479% 14.666% 18.303% 18.744% 16.069% 12.584% 8.012% 2.632% 0.505% 0.006% 0.006%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.004% 0.046% 0.392% 2.403% 2.845% 6.948% 11.491% 15.628% 19.533% 20.127% 17.051% 5.405% 0.957% 0.015% 0.015%
9. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.001% 0.024% 0.178% 1.603% 1.806% 5.424% 9.717% 13.895% 17.713% 20.548% 19.953% 8.379% 2.481% 0.084% 0.084%
10. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.004% 0.030% 0.199% 1.383% 1.616% 4.329% 7.821% 11.874% 16.105% 20.622% 23.378% 10.817% 3.356% 0.082% 0.080% 0.002%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.001% 0.001% 0.007% 0.009% 0.086% 0.311% 0.885% 2.177% 5.209% 12.544% 36.799% 37.833% 4.147% 3.742% 0.403% 0.002%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.004% 0.004% 0.037% 0.163% 0.457% 1.432% 3.705% 10.065% 32.613% 45.984% 5.540% 5.086% 0.450% 0.004%
13. Winter 0.7.4 0.011% 0.092% 0.896% 6.001% 93.000% 54.951% 36.515% 1.528% 0.006%
14. Nemorino 5.28 0.002% 0.013% 0.307% 2.542% 97.136% 35.296% 55.701% 5.996% 0.143%
15. PeSTO 2.211 0.001% 0.012% 99.987% 0.727% 6.660% 78.133% 14.467%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 0.010% 0.269% 14.337% 85.384%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 30.5 38.97 1.60 1.50 64 24 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Fire 021819 30.0 37.57 1.59 2.33 21 39 28 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 29.0 37.03 1.65 2.72 13 30 38 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 27.5 35.10 1.55 4.23 1 6 18 43 17 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 Laser 1.8_beta_256th 25.5 33.25 1.62 6.09 0 1 3 13 26 21 15 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0
6 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 26.0 32.99 1.57 6.36 0 0 2 10 22 23 18 12 8 4 1 0 0 0 0
7 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 25.5 32.41 1.57 7.04 0 0 1 5 14 19 21 17 12 7 2 0 0 0 0
8 Andscacs 0.95123 25.5 31.53 1.53 8.08 0 0 0 2 6 11 16 20 21 18 5 1 0 0 0
9 Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c 24.5 31.12 1.61 8.56 0 0 0 1 4 8 13 18 22 23 9 2 0 0 0
10 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 24.5 31.06 1.59 8.63 0 0 0 1 4 8 12 18 22 24 9 2 0 0 0
11 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 22.0 28.20 1.60 11.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 11 40 40 2 0 0
12 Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 22.0 27.92 1.56 11.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 9 35 49 3 0 0
13 Winter 0.7.4 17.5 23.29 1.61 13.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 50 44 3
14 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 17.5 23.14 1.60 13.55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 45 49 4
15 PeSTO 2.210/2.211 14.5 19.40 1.55 15.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 80
16 Fizbo 2 12.0 17.04 1.49 15.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-02-22 10:38 376 Laser 1.8_beta_256th KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-22 12:05 377 PeSTO 2.211 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-22 13:32 378 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-22 14:59 379 Winter 0.7.4 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-22 16:26 380 Nemorino 5.28 Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-22 17:53 381 Pedone 20200125 Fizbo 2
2020-02-22 19:20 382 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-22 20:47 383 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-22 22:14 384 Defenchess 2.3_dev Fire 021819
2020-02-22 23:41 385 Defenchess 2.3_dev PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-23 01:08 386 Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-23 02:35 387 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-23 04:02 388 rofChade 2.213 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-23 05:29 389 Fizbo 2 Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-23 06:56 390 Andscacs 0.95123 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-23 08:23 391 Xiphos 0.6.1 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-23 09:50 392 Ethereal 11.88 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-23 11:17 393 PeSTO 2.211 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-23 12:44 394 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-23 14:11 395 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-23 15:38 396 Winter 0.7.4 Fizbo 2
2020-02-23 17:05 397 Nemorino 5.28 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-23 18:32 398 Pedone 20200125 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-23 19:59 399 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Fire 021819
2020-02-23 21:26 400 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-23 22:53 401 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-24 00:20 402 Defenchess 2.3_dev Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-24 01:47 403 Fire 021819 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-24 03:14 404 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-24 04:41 405 rofChade 2.213 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-24 06:08 406 Fizbo 2 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-24 07:35 407 Andscacs 0.95123 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-24 09:02 408 Xiphos 0.6.1 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-24 10:29 409 PeSTO 2.211 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-24 11:56 410 Ethereal 11.88 Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-24 13:23 411 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Fizbo 2
2020-02-24 14:50 412 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-24 16:17 413 Winter 0.7.4 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-24 17:44 414 Nemorino 5.28 Fire 021819
2020-02-24 19:11 415 Pedone 20200125 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-24 20:38 416 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-24 22:05 417 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-24 23:32 418 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-25 00:59 419 Defenchess 2.3_dev Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-25 02:26 420 Fire 021819 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-25 03:53 421 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-25 05:20 422 rofChade 2.213 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-25 06:47 423 Fizbo 2 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-25 08:14 424 Andscacs 0.95123 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-25 09:41 425 PeSTO 2.211 Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-25 11:08 426 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fizbo 2
2020-02-25 12:35 427 Ethereal 11.88 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-25 14:02 428 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-25 15:29 429 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Fire 021819
2020-02-25 16:56 430 Winter 0.7.4 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-25 18:23 431 Nemorino 5.28 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-25 19:49 432 Pedone 20200125 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-25 21:16 433 Pedone 20200125 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-25 22:43 434 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-26 00:10 435 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-26 01:37 436 Defenchess 2.3_dev KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-26 03:04 437 Fire 021819 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-26 04:31 438 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-26 05:58 439 rofChade 2.213 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-26 07:25 440 Fizbo 2 Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-26 08:52 441 PeSTO 2.211 Fizbo 2
2020-02-26 10:19 442 Andscacs 0.95123 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-26 11:46 443 Xiphos 0.6.1 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-26 13:13 444 Ethereal 11.88 Fire 021819
2020-02-26 14:40 445 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-26 16:07 446 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-26 17:34 447 Winter 0.7.4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-26 19:01 448 Nemorino 5.28 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-26 20:28 449 Nemorino 5.28 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-26 21:55 450 Pedone 20200125 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-26 23:22 451 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-27 00:49 452 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-27 02:16 453 Defenchess 2.3_dev Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-27 03:43 454 Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-27 05:10 455 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-27 06:37 456 rofChade 2.213 Fizbo 2
2020-02-27 08:04 457 PeSTO 2.211 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-27 09:31 458 Fizbo 2 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-27 10:58 459 Andscacs 0.95123 Fire 021819
2020-02-27 12:25 460 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-27 13:52 461 Ethereal 11.88 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-27 15:19 462 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-27 16:46 463 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-27 18:13 464 Winter 0.7.4 Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-27 19:40 465 Winter 0.7.4 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-27 21:07 466 Nemorino 5.28 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-27 22:34 467 Pedone 20200125 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-28 00:01 468 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-28 01:28 469 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-28 02:55 470 Defenchess 2.3_dev Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-28 04:22 471 Fire 021819 Fizbo 2
2020-02-28 05:49 472 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c rofChade 2.213
2020-02-28 07:16 473 PeSTO 2.211 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-28 08:43 474 rofChade 2.213 Fire 021819
2020-02-28 10:10 475 Fizbo 2 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-28 11:37 476 Andscacs 0.95123 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-28 13:04 477 Xiphos 0.6.1 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-28 14:31 478 Ethereal 11.88 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-28 15:58 479 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-28 17:25 480 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Winter 0.7.4