For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 77.301% 20.956% 1.738% 0.005% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 22.245% 69.806% 6.921% 0.936% 99.908% 0.092%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 0.454% 8.498% 79.250% 9.227% 97.429% 2.205% 0.327% 0.039%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.599% 6.383% 44.438% 51.420% 28.341% 13.336% 5.538% 1.173% 0.181% 0.011%
5. rofChade 2.213 0.140% 4.502% 28.643% 33.285% 33.530% 20.007% 8.892% 3.188% 0.961% 0.137%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.001% 0.933% 12.346% 13.280% 21.515% 29.833% 18.726% 10.604% 5.062% 0.975% 0.005%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.254% 3.099% 3.353% 7.332% 16.777% 28.546% 23.176% 16.416% 4.350% 0.050%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.019% 1.190% 1.209% 5.094% 12.065% 21.316% 28.824% 20.058% 11.106% 0.328%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.113% 0.113% 1.834% 7.160% 14.445% 23.907% 35.346% 15.792% 1.397% 0.006%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.003% 0.003% 0.057% 0.495% 2.495% 9.030% 20.978% 61.163% 5.739% 0.040%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.003% 0.098% 0.996% 6.400% 84.985% 7.518%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.002% 0.066% 7.496% 92.407% 0.029% 0.029%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.013% 99.987% 67.075% 28.847% 4.065%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.016% 99.984% 31.162% 63.077% 5.745%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 1.734% 8.076% 88.451% 1.739%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 1.739% 98.261%

Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – Fizbo 2 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 77.346% 20.808% 1.843% 0.003% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 22.153% 69.971% 6.835% 0.955% 99.914% 0.086%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 0.501% 8.490% 79.458% 9.020% 97.469% 2.154% 0.339% 0.038%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.593% 6.169% 44.692% 51.454% 28.390% 13.131% 5.652% 1.180% 0.177% 0.016%
5. rofChade 2.213 0.136% 4.459% 28.722% 33.317% 33.496% 19.799% 8.903% 3.387% 0.952% 0.146%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.002% 0.964% 12.210% 13.176% 21.537% 29.677% 18.890% 10.701% 5.065% 0.946% 0.008%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.254% 3.127% 3.381% 7.396% 17.036% 28.440% 22.846% 16.389% 4.460% 0.052%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.018% 1.188% 1.206% 5.056% 12.326% 21.261% 28.716% 20.170% 10.916% 0.349%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.083% 0.083% 1.804% 7.184% 14.378% 23.985% 35.276% 15.817% 1.466% 0.007%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.081% 0.508% 2.434% 9.062% 21.008% 61.269% 5.611% 0.027%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.004% 0.123% 0.962% 6.382% 84.936% 7.593%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.001% 0.048% 7.578% 92.327% 0.046% 0.046%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.020% 99.980% 65.616% 27.677% 6.687%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.026% 99.974% 30.924% 59.273% 9.777%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 3.414% 13.050% 83.536%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – Fizbo 2 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 77.210% 20.953% 1.833% 0.004% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 22.296% 69.781% 6.918% 0.885% 99.880% 0.120%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 0.494% 8.521% 79.066% 9.404% 97.485% 2.121% 0.348% 0.046%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.606% 6.384% 44.367% 51.357% 28.386% 13.284% 5.643% 1.126% 0.189% 0.015%
5. rofChade 2.213 0.137% 4.546% 28.769% 33.452% 33.613% 19.762% 8.878% 3.178% 1.004% 0.113%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.002% 0.963% 12.213% 13.178% 21.520% 29.903% 18.956% 10.428% 5.080% 0.929% 0.006%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.266% 3.022% 3.288% 7.456% 16.864% 28.501% 23.134% 16.390% 4.315% 0.052%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.023% 1.201% 1.224% 5.045% 12.269% 21.025% 29.091% 20.214% 10.811% 0.321%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.001% 0.133% 0.134% 1.677% 7.080% 14.495% 23.986% 35.389% 15.734% 1.501% 0.004%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.002% 0.002% 0.062% 0.490% 2.449% 8.944% 20.697% 61.447% 5.871% 0.038%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.007% 0.113% 1.036% 6.577% 84.805% 7.462%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.001% 0.059% 7.444% 92.462% 0.034% 0.034%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.015% 99.985% 67.372% 28.985% 3.628%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.019% 99.981% 31.252% 63.854% 4.875%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 1.342% 7.161% 91.386% 0.111%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 0.111% 99.889%

Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – Fizbo 2 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 77.305% 20.829% 1.860% 0.006% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 22.182% 69.708% 7.071% 0.937% 99.898% 0.101% 0.001%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 0.512% 8.737% 79.093% 9.164% 97.506% 2.126% 0.332% 0.036%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.001% 0.589% 6.195% 44.903% 51.688% 28.272% 13.137% 5.602% 1.127% 0.162% 0.012%
5. rofChade 2.213 0.133% 4.477% 28.475% 33.085% 33.502% 20.033% 9.020% 3.280% 0.953% 0.127%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.004% 0.991% 12.283% 13.278% 21.519% 29.706% 18.956% 10.569% 5.062% 0.901% 0.009%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.287% 2.947% 3.234% 7.497% 16.629% 28.480% 23.096% 16.684% 4.332% 0.048%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 0.026% 1.165% 1.191% 5.127% 12.325% 21.253% 28.833% 20.077% 10.839% 0.355%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0.119% 0.119% 1.781% 7.323% 14.262% 24.040% 35.153% 15.869% 1.449% 0.004%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0.001% 0.001% 0.075% 0.514% 2.388% 8.930% 20.971% 61.497% 5.599% 0.025%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0.003% 0.125% 0.938% 6.367% 84.955% 7.612%
12. Pedone 20200125 0.056% 7.585% 92.325% 0.034% 0.034%
13. Nemorino 5.28 0.015% 99.985% 67.955% 30.492% 1.538%
14. Winter 0.7.4 0.019% 99.981% 31.652% 66.478% 1.851%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 0.359% 3.030% 91.560% 5.051%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 5.051% 94.949%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 36.5 39.49 0.94 1.20 81 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Fire 021819 35.5 38.31 0.95 1.89 19 73 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 33.5 36.62 0.94 3.03 0 8 83 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 32.0 34.84 0.94 4.51 0 0 7 54 25 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 31.5 34.34 0.95 5.05 0 0 2 27 44 18 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 31.0 33.50 0.95 6.16 0 0 0 8 19 38 21 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 30.5 32.77 0.96 7.20 0 0 0 2 7 19 34 22 15 2 0 0 0 0 0
8 Andscacs 0.95123 30.0 32.23 0.95 7.90 0 0 0 0 3 10 20 33 26 8 0 0 0 0 0
9 Laser 1.8_beta_256th 29.0 31.88 0.94 8.36 0 0 0 0 1 5 14 28 40 11 1 0 0 0 0
10 Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c 28.0 30.56 0.96 9.78 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 15 72 6 0 0 0 0
11 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 26.5 28.69 0.95 10.97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 89 4 0 0 0
12 Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 24.5 26.62 0.94 11.96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 96 0 0 0
13 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 20.0 22.28 0.95 13.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 34 2
14 Winter 0.7.4 19.5 21.79 0.95 13.70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 59 5
15 PeSTO 2.210/2.211 17.5 19.66 0.95 14.92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 92
16 Fizbo 2 14.5 16.42 0.92 15.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-02-26 07:58 442 Andscacs 0.95123 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-26 09:25 443 Xiphos 0.6.1 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-26 10:52 444 Ethereal 11.88 Fire 021819
2020-02-26 12:18 445 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-26 13:45 446 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-26 15:12 447 Winter 0.7.4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-26 16:38 448 Nemorino 5.28 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-26 18:05 449 Nemorino 5.28 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-26 19:32 450 Pedone 20200125 Winter 0.7.4
2020-02-26 20:58 451 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-26 22:25 452 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-26 23:52 453 Defenchess 2.3_dev Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-27 01:18 454 Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-27 02:45 455 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-27 04:12 456 rofChade 2.213 Fizbo 2
2020-02-27 05:38 457 PeSTO 2.211 rofChade 2.213
2020-02-27 07:05 458 Fizbo 2 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-27 08:32 459 Andscacs 0.95123 Fire 021819
2020-02-27 09:58 460 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-27 11:25 461 Ethereal 11.88 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-27 12:52 462 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-27 14:18 463 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-27 15:45 464 Winter 0.7.4 Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-27 17:12 465 Winter 0.7.4 PeSTO 2.211
2020-02-27 18:38 466 Nemorino 5.28 KomodoMCTS 2484.00
2020-02-27 20:05 467 Pedone 20200125 Laser 1.8_beta_256th
2020-02-27 21:32 468 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Ethereal 11.88
2020-02-27 22:58 469 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-28 00:25 470 Defenchess 2.3_dev Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-28 01:52 471 Fire 021819 Fizbo 2
2020-02-28 03:18 472 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c rofChade 2.213
2020-02-28 04:45 473 PeSTO 2.211 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-28 06:12 474 rofChade 2.213 Fire 021819
2020-02-28 07:38 475 Fizbo 2 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-28 09:05 476 Andscacs 0.95123 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-28 10:31 477 Xiphos 0.6.1 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-28 11:58 478 Ethereal 11.88 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-28 13:25 479 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-28 14:51 480 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Winter 0.7.4