For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.464% |
20.659% |
1.874% |
0.002% |
|
99.999% |
|
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.016% |
70.022% |
6.994% |
0.859% |
|
99.891% |
|
0.108% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.519% |
8.546% |
79.196% |
9.230% |
|
97.491% |
|
2.162% |
0.311% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.632% |
6.124% |
44.430% |
|
51.187% |
|
28.542% |
13.389% |
5.523% |
1.178% |
0.169% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.138% |
4.504% |
28.933% |
|
33.575% |
|
33.595% |
19.698% |
8.779% |
3.251% |
0.982% |
0.120% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
0.987% |
12.219% |
|
13.209% |
|
21.380% |
29.941% |
19.059% |
10.485% |
5.013% |
0.905% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.294% |
2.997% |
|
3.291% |
|
7.369% |
16.765% |
28.652% |
22.995% |
16.404% |
4.458% |
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.026% |
1.198% |
|
1.224% |
|
4.995% |
12.154% |
21.307% |
28.941% |
20.140% |
10.899% |
0.340% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.131% |
|
0.132% |
|
1.783% |
7.208% |
14.271% |
23.964% |
35.326% |
15.900% |
1.411% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.065% |
0.533% |
2.369% |
9.085% |
20.979% |
61.251% |
5.686% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.101% |
0.987% |
6.412% |
84.943% |
7.553% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.043% |
7.546% |
92.388% |
|
0.023% |
|
0.023% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
|
99.994% |
|
67.416% |
29.006% |
3.572% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
31.272% |
63.888% |
4.823% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.289% |
7.106% |
91.518% |
0.087% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.087% |
99.913% |
Speculate Andscacs 0.95123 – rofChade 2.213 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.178% |
20.937% |
1.880% |
0.005% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.348% |
69.825% |
6.955% |
0.860% |
|
99.988% |
|
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.474% |
8.623% |
81.985% |
7.417% |
|
98.499% |
|
1.256% |
0.215% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.609% |
6.692% |
54.450% |
|
61.751% |
|
20.582% |
10.678% |
5.047% |
1.698% |
0.227% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.001% |
1.026% |
14.806% |
|
15.833% |
|
29.617% |
27.000% |
16.811% |
7.906% |
2.500% |
0.333% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
1.072% |
15.140% |
|
16.217% |
|
25.212% |
22.346% |
17.493% |
11.695% |
5.942% |
1.087% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.071% |
3.138% |
|
3.209% |
|
12.068% |
17.804% |
24.411% |
26.146% |
12.267% |
4.073% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.319% |
4.000% |
|
4.319% |
|
8.606% |
15.044% |
22.434% |
25.844% |
19.019% |
4.685% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.180% |
|
0.180% |
|
2.538% |
6.359% |
11.838% |
20.420% |
39.310% |
17.900% |
1.448% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
|
0.004% |
|
0.109% |
0.554% |
1.936% |
6.242% |
19.817% |
65.647% |
5.660% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.049% |
0.917% |
6.201% |
85.447% |
7.386% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.057% |
7.366% |
92.542% |
|
0.034% |
|
0.034% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
99.988% |
|
67.389% |
29.081% |
3.518% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
|
99.978% |
|
31.274% |
63.912% |
4.792% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.303% |
7.007% |
91.595% |
0.095% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.095% |
99.905% |
Speculate Andscacs 0.95123 – rofChade 2.213 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.146% |
20.997% |
1.852% |
0.005% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.364% |
69.687% |
7.069% |
0.803% |
|
99.923% |
|
0.076% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.489% |
8.639% |
80.446% |
8.246% |
|
97.820% |
|
1.843% |
0.293% |
0.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.626% |
6.297% |
46.111% |
|
53.035% |
|
26.800% |
13.175% |
5.662% |
1.151% |
0.163% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.050% |
2.973% |
28.114% |
|
31.137% |
|
37.410% |
21.286% |
7.892% |
1.859% |
0.387% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
1.016% |
12.816% |
|
13.833% |
|
21.462% |
28.746% |
18.933% |
10.751% |
5.296% |
0.971% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.344% |
3.283% |
|
3.627% |
|
7.602% |
16.558% |
27.585% |
23.041% |
17.056% |
4.484% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.492% |
|
0.495% |
|
2.846% |
12.228% |
23.285% |
30.895% |
20.512% |
9.564% |
0.175% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.127% |
|
0.127% |
|
1.890% |
7.229% |
14.171% |
23.521% |
35.321% |
16.278% |
1.457% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.071% |
0.484% |
2.427% |
8.671% |
20.292% |
62.277% |
5.741% |
0.034% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.111% |
0.973% |
6.333% |
85.107% |
7.475% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
7.465% |
92.450% |
|
0.035% |
|
0.035% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
99.986% |
|
67.232% |
29.085% |
3.669% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
31.394% |
63.783% |
4.802% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.339% |
7.132% |
91.438% |
0.091% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.091% |
99.909% |
Speculate Andscacs 0.95123 – rofChade 2.213 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.088% |
21.082% |
1.820% |
0.010% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.395% |
69.536% |
6.833% |
1.032% |
|
99.796% |
|
0.202% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.517% |
8.476% |
75.993% |
11.420% |
|
96.406% |
|
3.055% |
0.480% |
0.059% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.340% |
8.582% |
40.903% |
|
49.825% |
|
34.160% |
12.931% |
2.756% |
0.300% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.564% |
5.663% |
34.899% |
|
41.126% |
|
36.004% |
15.834% |
6.145% |
0.783% |
0.096% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
0.891% |
9.501% |
|
10.394% |
|
18.483% |
36.343% |
20.395% |
9.508% |
4.159% |
0.713% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.218% |
2.143% |
|
2.361% |
|
6.376% |
18.742% |
33.821% |
20.623% |
14.186% |
3.841% |
0.050% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
|
0.024% |
|
0.580% |
6.941% |
17.063% |
29.756% |
26.893% |
17.988% |
0.755% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
|
0.067% |
|
1.109% |
8.239% |
16.790% |
27.126% |
31.191% |
14.072% |
1.398% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.031% |
0.487% |
2.967% |
11.695% |
22.342% |
56.791% |
5.655% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.004% |
0.209% |
1.105% |
6.530% |
84.674% |
7.477% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.053% |
7.463% |
92.446% |
|
0.038% |
|
0.038% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
67.338% |
29.153% |
3.492% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
31.333% |
63.931% |
4.715% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.291% |
6.916% |
91.697% |
0.096% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.096% |
99.904% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
36.5 |
39.49 |
0.94 |
1.20 |
81 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
35.5 |
38.30 |
0.95 |
1.89 |
19 |
73 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
33.5 |
36.62 |
0.94 |
3.02 |
0 |
8 |
83 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
32.0 |
34.85 |
0.95 |
4.50 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
55 |
25 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
31.5 |
34.33 |
0.95 |
5.06 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
27 |
44 |
18 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
31.0 |
33.50 |
0.95 |
6.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
19 |
38 |
21 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
30.5 |
32.76 |
0.96 |
7.21 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
34 |
22 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.0 |
32.24 |
0.95 |
7.88 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
20 |
33 |
25 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.87 |
0.94 |
8.37 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
28 |
40 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.56 |
0.96 |
9.78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
15 |
72 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.70 |
0.95 |
10.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
89 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.62 |
0.94 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.79 |
0.95 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
60 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.64 |
0.85 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
94 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 09:28 |
443 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-26 10:55 |
444 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-26 12:21 |
445 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-26 13:48 |
446 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-26 15:15 |
447 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-26 16:41 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 18:08 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:35 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 21:01 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:28 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:55 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:21 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:48 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:15 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:41 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:08 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:35 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:01 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:28 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:55 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:21 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:48 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:15 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:42 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:08 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:35 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:02 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:28 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:55 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:22 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:48 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:15 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:42 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:08 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:35 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:02 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:28 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:55 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |