For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.334% |
20.801% |
1.862% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.141% |
69.926% |
7.014% |
0.849% |
|
99.930% |
|
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.525% |
8.642% |
80.531% |
8.241% |
|
97.939% |
|
1.749% |
0.272% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.584% |
6.351% |
46.271% |
|
53.206% |
|
26.613% |
13.136% |
5.700% |
1.178% |
0.152% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.046% |
2.943% |
28.007% |
|
30.996% |
|
37.446% |
21.275% |
7.970% |
1.881% |
0.406% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
1.006% |
12.836% |
|
13.843% |
|
21.542% |
29.009% |
18.780% |
10.636% |
5.201% |
0.985% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.288% |
3.205% |
|
3.493% |
|
7.586% |
16.508% |
27.950% |
23.025% |
16.894% |
4.493% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.428% |
|
0.433% |
|
2.940% |
12.160% |
23.041% |
30.865% |
20.642% |
9.758% |
0.161% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.159% |
|
0.159% |
|
1.992% |
7.141% |
14.126% |
23.666% |
35.408% |
16.089% |
1.412% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.062% |
0.499% |
2.389% |
8.655% |
20.357% |
62.412% |
5.581% |
0.044% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.094% |
0.938% |
6.156% |
85.309% |
7.499% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.066% |
7.482% |
92.420% |
|
0.030% |
|
0.030% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
67.237% |
29.197% |
3.551% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
31.437% |
63.814% |
4.734% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.296% |
6.989% |
91.618% |
0.097% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.097% |
99.903% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.622% |
20.569% |
1.800% |
0.009% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.903% |
69.862% |
6.889% |
1.254% |
|
99.908% |
|
0.090% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.474% |
8.492% |
77.704% |
10.658% |
|
97.328% |
|
2.264% |
0.374% |
0.034% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
1.039% |
9.838% |
54.715% |
|
65.593% |
|
22.616% |
8.822% |
2.726% |
0.237% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.037% |
2.570% |
21.002% |
|
23.609% |
|
42.201% |
23.496% |
8.528% |
1.862% |
0.300% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
0.942% |
9.664% |
|
10.607% |
|
21.807% |
31.021% |
19.894% |
10.925% |
5.272% |
0.471% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.256% |
2.428% |
|
2.684% |
|
6.704% |
16.468% |
29.845% |
24.129% |
17.671% |
2.468% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.229% |
|
0.230% |
|
2.574% |
12.481% |
24.004% |
33.647% |
20.604% |
6.319% |
0.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.041% |
|
0.041% |
|
1.744% |
7.317% |
14.473% |
24.777% |
39.618% |
10.821% |
1.196% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
0.496% |
4.299% |
15.265% |
71.186% |
8.681% |
0.054% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.124% |
1.263% |
8.666% |
82.476% |
7.471% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.065% |
7.472% |
92.424% |
|
0.038% |
|
0.038% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
67.384% |
28.978% |
3.621% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
31.198% |
63.927% |
4.854% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.380% |
7.095% |
91.439% |
0.086% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.086% |
99.914% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.169% |
21.009% |
1.822% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.319% |
70.175% |
6.873% |
0.567% |
|
99.934% |
|
0.066% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.512% |
8.513% |
82.433% |
6.652% |
|
98.110% |
|
1.555% |
0.288% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.257% |
4.194% |
43.962% |
|
48.413% |
|
29.365% |
14.823% |
6.236% |
1.071% |
0.092% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.043% |
3.174% |
30.646% |
|
33.863% |
|
35.420% |
20.598% |
7.900% |
1.812% |
0.383% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
1.168% |
13.829% |
|
15.000% |
|
21.088% |
28.413% |
18.724% |
10.482% |
5.240% |
1.046% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.331% |
3.730% |
|
4.061% |
|
7.701% |
16.485% |
27.691% |
22.767% |
16.441% |
4.797% |
0.057% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.513% |
|
0.518% |
|
2.948% |
12.029% |
23.062% |
30.335% |
19.867% |
11.055% |
0.186% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.101% |
|
0.101% |
|
1.850% |
7.098% |
14.036% |
23.336% |
34.081% |
17.913% |
1.573% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.266% |
2.303% |
10.118% |
23.048% |
60.419% |
3.831% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.079% |
0.848% |
4.714% |
86.883% |
7.475% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
7.463% |
92.473% |
|
0.032% |
|
0.032% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
99.990% |
|
67.229% |
29.180% |
3.581% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
|
99.978% |
|
31.497% |
63.737% |
4.744% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.242% |
7.083% |
91.595% |
0.080% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.080% |
99.920% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.043% |
21.142% |
1.815% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
22.456% |
70.289% |
6.983% |
0.238% |
|
99.966% |
|
0.034% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.501% |
8.494% |
84.451% |
5.295% |
|
98.741% |
|
1.055% |
0.190% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.042% |
3.598% |
39.591% |
|
43.231% |
|
30.301% |
17.065% |
6.779% |
2.077% |
0.491% |
0.056% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.033% |
1.581% |
30.812% |
|
32.426% |
|
31.753% |
20.658% |
11.248% |
3.255% |
0.608% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.180% |
18.046% |
|
19.226% |
|
21.163% |
25.436% |
17.045% |
9.992% |
5.185% |
1.944% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.384% |
4.813% |
|
5.197% |
|
9.375% |
16.319% |
24.547% |
20.840% |
15.554% |
8.108% |
0.060% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.878% |
|
0.886% |
|
3.909% |
11.827% |
20.938% |
26.269% |
20.557% |
15.425% |
0.189% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.318% |
|
0.318% |
|
2.135% |
6.826% |
12.889% |
20.704% |
29.363% |
25.890% |
1.866% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
0.009% |
|
0.275% |
1.679% |
6.536% |
16.818% |
27.728% |
45.545% |
1.410% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.045% |
0.514% |
2.970% |
89.058% |
7.409% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
7.408% |
92.544% |
|
0.038% |
|
0.038% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
99.984% |
|
67.516% |
29.085% |
3.383% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
|
99.978% |
|
31.183% |
63.842% |
4.953% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.263% |
7.073% |
91.566% |
0.098% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.098% |
99.902% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
36.5 |
39.49 |
0.94 |
1.20 |
81 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
35.5 |
38.31 |
0.95 |
1.89 |
19 |
73 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
33.5 |
36.62 |
0.93 |
3.01 |
0 |
8 |
83 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
32.0 |
34.85 |
0.94 |
4.47 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
57 |
23 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.04 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
25 |
48 |
19 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
31.0 |
33.49 |
0.95 |
6.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
19 |
38 |
21 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
30.5 |
32.77 |
0.95 |
7.21 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
34 |
22 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.90 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
21 |
35 |
25 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.88 |
0.94 |
8.39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
27 |
41 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.56 |
0.96 |
9.79 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
15 |
73 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.69 |
0.96 |
10.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
89 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.63 |
0.94 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.27 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.79 |
0.95 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
59 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.65 |
0.85 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
93 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 10:45 |
444 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-26 12:12 |
445 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-26 13:38 |
446 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-26 15:05 |
447 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-26 16:32 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 17:58 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:25 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 20:51 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:18 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:45 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:11 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:38 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:05 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:31 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:58 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:25 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:51 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:18 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:45 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:11 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:38 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:05 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:31 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:58 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:24 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:51 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:18 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:44 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:11 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:38 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:04 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:31 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:58 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:24 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:51 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:18 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:44 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |