For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
77.583% |
20.618% |
1.793% |
0.006% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.927% |
69.791% |
6.947% |
1.243% |
|
99.908% |
|
0.092% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.489% |
8.541% |
77.619% |
10.698% |
|
97.347% |
|
2.246% |
0.349% |
0.057% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
1.007% |
9.762% |
54.660% |
|
65.430% |
|
22.897% |
8.794% |
2.624% |
0.252% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.038% |
2.674% |
21.078% |
|
23.790% |
|
41.943% |
23.361% |
8.677% |
1.883% |
0.340% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
0.961% |
9.663% |
|
10.629% |
|
21.809% |
31.183% |
19.891% |
10.911% |
5.150% |
0.423% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.242% |
2.389% |
|
2.631% |
|
6.678% |
16.404% |
29.849% |
24.198% |
17.833% |
2.377% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.231% |
|
0.233% |
|
2.473% |
12.552% |
24.131% |
33.401% |
20.810% |
6.271% |
0.129% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
|
0.032% |
|
1.861% |
7.337% |
14.282% |
24.908% |
39.304% |
11.094% |
1.180% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.020% |
0.487% |
4.323% |
15.278% |
71.129% |
8.701% |
0.061% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.123% |
1.281% |
8.613% |
82.429% |
7.552% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.087% |
7.527% |
92.357% |
|
0.028% |
|
0.028% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
|
99.982% |
|
67.164% |
29.206% |
3.612% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
99.990% |
|
31.475% |
63.724% |
4.791% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.333% |
7.070% |
91.492% |
0.105% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.105% |
99.895% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Fire 021819 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
97.488% |
2.354% |
0.158% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
2.127% |
83.651% |
11.667% |
2.350% |
|
99.795% |
|
0.201% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.385% |
12.115% |
74.383% |
10.395% |
|
97.278% |
|
2.278% |
0.395% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
1.809% |
9.891% |
53.854% |
|
65.554% |
|
22.845% |
8.732% |
2.623% |
0.241% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.061% |
2.756% |
21.301% |
|
24.118% |
|
42.195% |
23.068% |
8.479% |
1.828% |
0.307% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.010% |
0.883% |
9.478% |
|
10.371% |
|
21.574% |
31.378% |
19.889% |
11.099% |
5.243% |
0.443% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.261% |
2.363% |
|
2.624% |
|
6.677% |
16.608% |
29.570% |
24.055% |
17.860% |
2.570% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.234% |
|
0.235% |
|
2.447% |
12.581% |
24.400% |
33.245% |
20.757% |
6.206% |
0.129% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.025% |
|
0.025% |
|
1.783% |
7.225% |
14.531% |
25.074% |
39.091% |
11.100% |
1.166% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.459% |
4.340% |
15.515% |
70.967% |
8.662% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.118% |
1.220% |
8.619% |
82.496% |
7.547% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.090% |
7.508% |
92.364% |
|
0.036% |
|
0.036% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
|
99.991% |
|
67.189% |
29.294% |
3.508% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.027% |
|
99.973% |
|
31.476% |
63.688% |
4.809% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.299% |
7.018% |
91.570% |
0.113% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.113% |
99.887% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.015% |
12.722% |
1.261% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.216% |
80.276% |
5.740% |
0.742% |
|
99.974% |
|
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.766% |
6.283% |
79.734% |
10.532% |
|
97.315% |
|
2.247% |
0.393% |
0.044% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.003% |
0.705% |
9.598% |
55.141% |
|
65.447% |
|
22.791% |
8.748% |
2.760% |
0.246% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.014% |
2.498% |
21.179% |
|
23.691% |
|
41.973% |
23.392% |
8.691% |
1.929% |
0.321% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.910% |
9.674% |
|
10.584% |
|
21.903% |
31.181% |
19.850% |
10.862% |
5.193% |
0.424% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.257% |
2.442% |
|
2.699% |
|
6.631% |
16.579% |
29.782% |
24.140% |
17.728% |
2.416% |
0.025% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.255% |
|
0.257% |
|
2.605% |
12.362% |
24.118% |
33.204% |
20.889% |
6.414% |
0.151% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
|
0.033% |
|
1.823% |
7.332% |
14.287% |
25.166% |
39.008% |
11.100% |
1.241% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.013% |
0.468% |
4.356% |
15.580% |
70.922% |
8.610% |
0.050% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.096% |
1.269% |
8.649% |
82.547% |
7.439% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.072% |
7.423% |
92.466% |
|
0.035% |
|
0.035% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
|
99.990% |
|
67.251% |
29.411% |
3.328% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.025% |
|
99.975% |
|
31.405% |
63.774% |
4.796% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.309% |
6.815% |
91.779% |
0.097% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.097% |
99.903% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Fire 021819 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
56.679% |
41.292% |
1.863% |
0.166% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
42.835% |
52.614% |
4.513% |
0.038% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.483% |
5.874% |
80.340% |
10.661% |
|
97.358% |
|
2.212% |
0.383% |
0.046% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.003% |
0.220% |
9.482% |
55.506% |
|
65.211% |
|
22.896% |
8.820% |
2.826% |
0.240% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.632% |
21.108% |
|
23.740% |
|
41.739% |
23.492% |
8.819% |
1.833% |
0.376% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.902% |
9.826% |
|
10.728% |
|
21.891% |
31.359% |
19.748% |
10.715% |
5.131% |
0.426% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.267% |
2.413% |
|
2.680% |
|
6.802% |
16.544% |
29.787% |
24.138% |
17.569% |
2.448% |
0.032% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.244% |
|
0.245% |
|
2.507% |
12.251% |
23.832% |
33.400% |
21.139% |
6.480% |
0.146% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.038% |
|
0.038% |
|
1.953% |
7.136% |
14.459% |
25.193% |
38.964% |
11.034% |
1.214% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.482% |
4.357% |
15.565% |
70.814% |
8.703% |
0.064% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.123% |
1.245% |
8.715% |
82.414% |
7.502% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.082% |
7.489% |
92.383% |
|
0.042% |
|
0.042% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
|
99.978% |
|
67.095% |
29.257% |
3.626% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
|
99.980% |
|
31.534% |
63.517% |
4.929% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.329% |
7.226% |
91.348% |
0.097% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.097% |
99.903% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
36.5 |
39.50 |
0.94 |
1.19 |
81 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
35.5 |
38.30 |
0.95 |
1.90 |
18 |
73 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
33.5 |
36.63 |
0.93 |
3.05 |
0 |
8 |
80 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.23 |
0.85 |
4.20 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
66 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.31 |
0.84 |
5.15 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
56 |
20 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
31.0 |
33.48 |
0.95 |
6.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
18 |
40 |
22 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
30.5 |
32.76 |
0.95 |
7.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
19 |
35 |
23 |
16 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.27 |
0.85 |
7.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
22 |
37 |
26 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.88 |
0.94 |
8.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
28 |
45 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.19 |
0.86 |
9.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
80 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.69 |
0.95 |
10.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
86 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.62 |
0.94 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.79 |
0.94 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
60 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.64 |
0.85 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
94 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.45 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 12:22 |
445 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-26 13:49 |
446 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-26 15:15 |
447 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-26 16:42 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 18:09 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:35 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 21:02 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:29 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:55 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:22 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:49 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:15 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:42 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:09 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:35 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:02 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:29 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:55 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:22 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:49 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:15 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:42 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:09 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:35 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:02 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:29 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:55 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:22 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:49 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:15 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:42 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:09 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:36 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:02 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:29 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:56 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |