For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.012% |
12.633% |
1.353% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.261% |
80.293% |
5.657% |
0.761% |
|
99.972% |
|
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.726% |
6.326% |
79.542% |
10.790% |
|
97.384% |
|
2.213% |
0.348% |
0.055% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.725% |
9.694% |
54.917% |
|
65.337% |
|
22.915% |
8.774% |
2.692% |
0.272% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.023% |
2.618% |
21.209% |
|
23.850% |
|
42.220% |
23.203% |
8.532% |
1.875% |
0.314% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.887% |
9.641% |
|
10.528% |
|
21.610% |
31.166% |
20.080% |
10.985% |
5.188% |
0.441% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.248% |
2.402% |
|
2.650% |
|
6.684% |
16.513% |
29.774% |
24.146% |
17.760% |
2.443% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.235% |
|
0.236% |
|
2.533% |
12.677% |
23.980% |
33.381% |
20.788% |
6.281% |
0.124% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.043% |
|
0.043% |
|
1.797% |
7.306% |
14.392% |
24.981% |
39.419% |
10.892% |
1.162% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.495% |
4.238% |
15.324% |
71.182% |
8.692% |
0.056% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.122% |
1.194% |
8.663% |
82.490% |
7.531% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.092% |
7.500% |
92.361% |
|
0.044% |
|
0.044% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
|
99.979% |
|
67.151% |
29.274% |
3.554% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
|
99.977% |
|
31.439% |
63.770% |
4.768% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.366% |
6.956% |
91.571% |
0.107% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.107% |
99.893% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.025% |
12.645% |
1.330% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.217% |
80.289% |
5.663% |
0.802% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.757% |
6.316% |
80.037% |
10.488% |
|
97.598% |
|
2.115% |
0.249% |
0.038% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.740% |
9.826% |
57.523% |
|
68.090% |
|
23.083% |
6.563% |
1.969% |
0.277% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.010% |
2.720% |
23.915% |
|
26.645% |
|
46.722% |
16.565% |
7.341% |
2.286% |
0.438% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.146% |
4.232% |
|
4.378% |
|
13.614% |
27.585% |
24.422% |
17.987% |
11.068% |
0.942% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.274% |
2.680% |
|
2.954% |
|
7.680% |
19.511% |
24.468% |
21.184% |
21.503% |
2.667% |
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
0.088% |
|
0.088% |
|
4.056% |
14.594% |
21.038% |
27.668% |
28.038% |
4.294% |
0.224% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.272% |
|
0.276% |
|
2.700% |
14.906% |
20.312% |
27.501% |
26.920% |
7.242% |
0.143% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.027% |
0.410% |
3.009% |
11.352% |
76.297% |
8.848% |
0.056% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.088% |
0.663% |
8.473% |
83.128% |
7.646% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.082% |
7.620% |
92.257% |
|
0.041% |
|
0.041% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
|
99.982% |
|
66.950% |
29.480% |
3.552% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
|
99.977% |
|
31.687% |
63.475% |
4.815% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.322% |
7.045% |
91.539% |
0.094% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.094% |
99.906% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.847% |
12.838% |
1.314% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.422% |
80.171% |
5.581% |
0.797% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.729% |
6.252% |
79.907% |
10.520% |
|
97.408% |
|
2.193% |
0.359% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.726% |
9.613% |
55.122% |
|
65.463% |
|
22.502% |
9.005% |
2.795% |
0.229% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.013% |
2.651% |
21.235% |
|
23.899% |
|
41.809% |
23.531% |
8.695% |
1.747% |
0.315% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.655% |
9.573% |
|
10.228% |
|
23.614% |
34.989% |
20.578% |
8.514% |
1.937% |
0.139% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.278% |
2.527% |
|
2.805% |
|
6.780% |
16.315% |
29.732% |
24.089% |
17.712% |
2.537% |
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.225% |
|
0.226% |
|
2.588% |
12.485% |
24.619% |
34.504% |
19.109% |
6.361% |
0.108% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.485% |
3.299% |
13.089% |
26.555% |
45.072% |
10.580% |
0.920% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.449% |
4.239% |
14.666% |
71.854% |
8.727% |
0.048% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.123% |
1.182% |
8.450% |
82.593% |
7.649% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.075% |
7.621% |
92.268% |
|
0.035% |
|
0.035% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
|
99.982% |
|
67.227% |
29.231% |
3.524% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
99.983% |
|
31.401% |
63.652% |
4.930% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.337% |
7.117% |
91.446% |
0.100% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.100% |
99.900% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Defenchess 2.3_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.868% |
12.842% |
1.289% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.422% |
80.170% |
5.596% |
0.775% |
|
99.963% |
|
0.036% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.709% |
6.263% |
78.840% |
10.985% |
|
96.797% |
|
2.590% |
0.536% |
0.076% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.711% |
9.415% |
51.039% |
|
61.166% |
|
23.125% |
11.808% |
3.627% |
0.274% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.013% |
2.390% |
17.766% |
|
20.169% |
|
35.388% |
32.724% |
10.225% |
1.339% |
0.153% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
2.214% |
17.299% |
|
19.514% |
|
31.452% |
32.641% |
12.880% |
3.352% |
0.157% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.256% |
1.932% |
|
2.188% |
|
5.233% |
12.751% |
37.186% |
27.611% |
12.900% |
2.102% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.203% |
|
0.203% |
|
2.159% |
8.994% |
28.914% |
40.962% |
13.726% |
4.958% |
0.084% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.536% |
6.525% |
20.333% |
49.677% |
20.133% |
2.750% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.566% |
5.982% |
21.271% |
63.692% |
8.429% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.146% |
2.112% |
9.003% |
81.101% |
7.637% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.106% |
7.607% |
92.253% |
|
0.030% |
|
0.030% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
67.264% |
29.082% |
3.639% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
31.385% |
63.734% |
4.866% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.321% |
7.184% |
91.399% |
0.096% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.096% |
99.904% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.43 |
0.83 |
1.16 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.91 |
15 |
79 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
33.5 |
36.62 |
0.93 |
3.07 |
0 |
6 |
82 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.23 |
0.85 |
4.20 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
66 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.31 |
0.84 |
5.16 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
55 |
20 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
31.0 |
33.49 |
0.95 |
6.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
18 |
40 |
22 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
30.5 |
32.76 |
0.96 |
7.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
19 |
35 |
23 |
16 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.27 |
0.85 |
7.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
22 |
37 |
26 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.87 |
0.95 |
8.33 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
28 |
45 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
80 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.70 |
0.95 |
10.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
86 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.62 |
0.94 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.79 |
0.94 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
60 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.64 |
0.84 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
94 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 13:38 |
446 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-26 15:05 |
447 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-26 16:32 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 17:58 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:25 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 20:52 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:18 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:45 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:12 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:38 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:05 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:32 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:58 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:25 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:52 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:18 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:45 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:12 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:38 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:05 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:31 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:58 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:25 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:51 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:18 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:45 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:11 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:38 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:05 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:31 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:58 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:25 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:51 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:18 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:45 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |