For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.330% |
12.870% |
0.798% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.361% |
82.109% |
3.794% |
0.713% |
|
99.977% |
|
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.309% |
4.124% |
80.236% |
12.419% |
|
97.088% |
|
2.568% |
0.340% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.874% |
10.231% |
50.095% |
|
61.200% |
|
23.389% |
11.455% |
3.710% |
0.246% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.017% |
2.784% |
17.758% |
|
20.559% |
|
35.555% |
33.047% |
9.826% |
0.968% |
0.043% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.006% |
2.141% |
17.310% |
|
19.457% |
|
31.493% |
32.693% |
12.744% |
3.457% |
0.152% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.015% |
1.480% |
|
1.495% |
|
4.772% |
13.356% |
42.383% |
29.368% |
7.688% |
0.935% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.223% |
|
0.224% |
|
2.197% |
8.935% |
27.372% |
43.015% |
13.845% |
4.324% |
0.088% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.166% |
3.528% |
16.845% |
55.172% |
20.774% |
3.483% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.433% |
5.935% |
20.693% |
64.423% |
8.459% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.166% |
2.401% |
9.459% |
80.511% |
7.463% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.079% |
7.456% |
92.429% |
|
0.030% |
|
0.030% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
67.267% |
29.172% |
3.546% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
|
99.985% |
|
31.361% |
63.716% |
4.908% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.342% |
7.112% |
91.441% |
0.105% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.105% |
99.895% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.347% |
12.792% |
0.857% |
0.004% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.344% |
82.150% |
3.774% |
0.699% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.307% |
4.256% |
80.155% |
12.382% |
|
97.100% |
|
2.567% |
0.326% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.783% |
10.400% |
50.236% |
|
61.421% |
|
22.970% |
11.564% |
3.736% |
0.309% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.017% |
2.693% |
17.606% |
|
20.316% |
|
35.657% |
33.125% |
9.847% |
1.018% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
2.115% |
17.403% |
|
19.520% |
|
31.750% |
32.452% |
12.616% |
3.507% |
0.149% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.006% |
1.443% |
|
1.449% |
|
4.906% |
13.432% |
42.382% |
29.159% |
7.739% |
0.933% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.227% |
|
0.227% |
|
2.116% |
8.948% |
27.370% |
43.132% |
14.112% |
4.089% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.146% |
3.617% |
17.018% |
56.384% |
21.590% |
1.233% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.425% |
5.855% |
21.141% |
69.732% |
2.808% |
0.032% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.434% |
3.542% |
82.042% |
13.980% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.108% |
13.911% |
85.896% |
|
0.081% |
|
0.081% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
|
99.987% |
|
54.000% |
41.659% |
4.328% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.068% |
|
99.932% |
|
45.351% |
53.190% |
1.391% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.568% |
5.151% |
94.198% |
0.083% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.083% |
99.917% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.376% |
12.840% |
0.779% |
0.005% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.333% |
82.174% |
3.762% |
0.685% |
|
99.954% |
|
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.291% |
4.086% |
80.308% |
12.429% |
|
97.114% |
|
2.531% |
0.351% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.872% |
10.182% |
50.210% |
|
61.264% |
|
23.191% |
11.524% |
3.770% |
0.251% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.023% |
2.780% |
17.531% |
|
20.334% |
|
35.528% |
33.183% |
9.877% |
1.027% |
0.050% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
2.170% |
17.444% |
|
19.619% |
|
31.630% |
32.246% |
12.689% |
3.666% |
0.145% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.015% |
1.491% |
|
1.506% |
|
4.957% |
13.508% |
42.449% |
29.042% |
7.547% |
0.991% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.205% |
|
0.209% |
|
2.111% |
9.033% |
27.111% |
43.549% |
13.807% |
4.137% |
0.043% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.148% |
3.651% |
16.632% |
55.649% |
20.978% |
2.920% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.449% |
5.772% |
21.239% |
65.634% |
6.842% |
0.057% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.061% |
1.562% |
8.134% |
82.810% |
7.433% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.120% |
7.385% |
92.471% |
|
0.023% |
|
0.023% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
|
99.977% |
|
67.052% |
29.328% |
3.597% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
31.739% |
64.440% |
3.821% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
1.186% |
6.232% |
92.491% |
0.091% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.091% |
99.909% |
Speculate Winter 0.7.4 – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.225% |
12.929% |
0.843% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.477% |
82.149% |
3.663% |
0.674% |
|
99.963% |
|
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.297% |
4.070% |
80.193% |
12.522% |
|
97.082% |
|
2.582% |
0.325% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.832% |
10.366% |
50.087% |
|
61.286% |
|
23.130% |
11.502% |
3.794% |
0.288% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.019% |
2.692% |
17.595% |
|
20.306% |
|
35.275% |
33.464% |
9.882% |
1.031% |
0.042% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
2.230% |
17.440% |
|
19.671% |
|
31.924% |
32.187% |
12.649% |
3.419% |
0.146% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.012% |
1.456% |
|
1.468% |
|
4.864% |
13.422% |
42.257% |
29.255% |
7.780% |
0.947% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.223% |
|
0.224% |
|
2.187% |
8.953% |
27.405% |
43.060% |
13.718% |
4.281% |
0.172% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.143% |
3.530% |
16.809% |
53.408% |
20.443% |
5.637% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.471% |
5.775% |
20.558% |
59.365% |
13.758% |
0.069% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.363% |
4.344% |
14.883% |
77.808% |
2.601% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.077% |
2.618% |
97.289% |
|
0.012% |
|
0.012% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
|
99.988% |
|
77.876% |
19.113% |
2.999% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
20.091% |
71.632% |
8.277% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
2.021% |
9.255% |
88.629% |
0.095% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.095% |
99.905% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.43 |
0.84 |
1.16 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.37 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
15 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.0 |
36.52 |
0.83 |
3.10 |
0 |
4 |
84 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.32 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
45 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.06 |
0.85 |
5.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
30 |
41 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.87 |
0.86 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
49 |
25 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
51 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.85 |
8.89 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
61 |
14 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
74 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.70 |
0.95 |
10.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
85 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.63 |
0.93 |
11.96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
96 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.38 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
63 |
35 |
2 |
14 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
19.5 |
21.80 |
0.95 |
13.69 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
59 |
5 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.65 |
0.85 |
14.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
93 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 16:18 |
448 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-26 17:44 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:11 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 20:38 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:04 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:31 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 00:58 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:24 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 03:51 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:17 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:44 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:11 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:37 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:04 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:31 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 13:57 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:24 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 16:50 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:17 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:44 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:10 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:37 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:03 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:30 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 02:57 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:23 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 05:50 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:17 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:43 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:10 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:36 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:03 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:30 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |