For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.385% |
12.796% |
0.819% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.342% |
82.123% |
3.772% |
0.727% |
|
99.964% |
|
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.272% |
4.185% |
80.044% |
12.674% |
|
97.175% |
|
2.501% |
0.319% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.879% |
10.480% |
50.126% |
|
61.486% |
|
23.039% |
11.628% |
3.575% |
0.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.631% |
17.475% |
|
20.122% |
|
35.373% |
33.551% |
9.897% |
1.010% |
0.046% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
2.241% |
17.339% |
|
19.581% |
|
31.809% |
32.362% |
12.518% |
3.556% |
0.169% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.013% |
1.473% |
|
1.486% |
|
5.017% |
13.268% |
42.632% |
28.988% |
7.650% |
0.959% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.186% |
|
0.186% |
|
2.220% |
8.713% |
27.319% |
43.296% |
14.068% |
4.192% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.153% |
3.594% |
16.915% |
56.134% |
22.001% |
1.185% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.460% |
5.959% |
21.525% |
69.116% |
2.887% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.403% |
3.602% |
82.406% |
13.585% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.124% |
13.516% |
86.262% |
|
0.093% |
|
0.093% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.020% |
|
99.980% |
|
53.968% |
41.802% |
4.210% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.073% |
|
99.927% |
|
45.381% |
53.199% |
1.347% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.558% |
4.999% |
94.337% |
0.106% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.106% |
99.894% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – Pedone 20200125 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.385% |
12.811% |
0.803% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.326% |
82.241% |
3.673% |
0.730% |
|
99.970% |
|
0.030% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.287% |
4.127% |
80.222% |
12.461% |
|
97.097% |
|
2.555% |
0.342% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.802% |
10.346% |
49.979% |
|
61.129% |
|
23.087% |
11.714% |
3.788% |
0.282% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.018% |
2.653% |
17.578% |
|
20.249% |
|
36.018% |
32.818% |
9.884% |
0.983% |
0.047% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
2.282% |
17.561% |
|
19.844% |
|
31.291% |
32.522% |
12.598% |
3.585% |
0.157% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.018% |
1.482% |
|
1.500% |
|
4.897% |
13.519% |
42.276% |
29.316% |
7.544% |
0.948% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.208% |
|
0.211% |
|
2.120% |
8.934% |
27.367% |
43.272% |
13.930% |
4.161% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.145% |
3.623% |
16.612% |
56.535% |
21.864% |
1.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.458% |
5.949% |
21.344% |
69.383% |
2.857% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.443% |
3.638% |
90.241% |
5.677% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
5.678% |
94.125% |
|
0.195% |
|
0.195% |
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.046% |
|
99.954% |
|
68.193% |
30.673% |
1.088% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.149% |
|
99.851% |
|
31.313% |
67.213% |
1.325% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.299% |
2.114% |
97.489% |
0.098% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.098% |
99.902% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – Pedone 20200125 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.291% |
12.878% |
0.827% |
0.004% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.405% |
82.245% |
3.583% |
0.734% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.303% |
4.061% |
80.268% |
12.528% |
|
97.160% |
|
2.478% |
0.354% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.796% |
10.441% |
50.250% |
|
61.488% |
|
23.155% |
11.480% |
3.610% |
0.267% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.015% |
2.659% |
17.516% |
|
20.190% |
|
35.331% |
33.309% |
10.083% |
1.037% |
0.048% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
2.210% |
17.240% |
|
19.455% |
|
31.898% |
32.236% |
12.593% |
3.662% |
0.155% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.010% |
1.522% |
|
1.532% |
|
4.958% |
13.625% |
42.370% |
29.001% |
7.572% |
0.942% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.206% |
|
0.208% |
|
2.142% |
8.853% |
27.215% |
43.256% |
14.181% |
4.136% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.134% |
3.679% |
16.800% |
56.146% |
22.045% |
1.186% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.442% |
5.973% |
21.472% |
69.190% |
2.905% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.426% |
3.644% |
85.509% |
10.417% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.040% |
10.391% |
89.569% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
53.863% |
42.683% |
3.454% |
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
45.590% |
53.051% |
1.359% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.547% |
4.266% |
95.102% |
0.085% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.085% |
99.915% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – Pedone 20200125 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.257% |
12.945% |
0.795% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.436% |
82.054% |
3.761% |
0.707% |
|
99.958% |
|
0.042% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.306% |
4.159% |
80.228% |
12.465% |
|
97.158% |
|
2.464% |
0.372% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.823% |
10.329% |
50.145% |
|
61.298% |
|
23.159% |
11.636% |
3.665% |
0.242% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.702% |
17.479% |
|
20.197% |
|
35.483% |
33.301% |
9.932% |
1.045% |
0.042% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.172% |
17.552% |
|
19.727% |
|
31.811% |
32.371% |
12.499% |
3.437% |
0.153% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.013% |
1.445% |
|
1.458% |
|
4.930% |
13.310% |
42.357% |
29.325% |
7.702% |
0.918% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.204% |
|
0.204% |
|
2.107% |
8.864% |
27.457% |
43.247% |
13.920% |
4.195% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.139% |
3.604% |
16.740% |
56.592% |
21.668% |
1.216% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.480% |
5.958% |
21.164% |
69.287% |
3.027% |
0.077% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.419% |
3.623% |
71.196% |
24.756% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.307% |
24.555% |
75.130% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
60.292% |
38.322% |
1.386% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
38.835% |
52.880% |
8.285% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.873% |
8.798% |
90.226% |
0.103% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.103% |
99.897% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.44 |
0.83 |
1.15 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
15 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.0 |
36.53 |
0.83 |
3.10 |
0 |
4 |
84 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.23 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.32 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
45 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.06 |
0.85 |
5.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
30 |
41 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.86 |
0.85 |
7.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
50 |
25 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.27 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
51 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.84 |
8.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
80 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.13 |
0.85 |
11.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
88 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
24.5 |
26.62 |
0.94 |
11.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
22.35 |
0.85 |
13.49 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
46 |
1 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
22.28 |
0.95 |
13.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
47 |
51 |
2 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.64 |
0.85 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.82 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 18:08 |
449 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-26 19:35 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 21:01 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:28 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:55 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:21 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:48 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:15 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:41 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:08 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:35 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:01 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:28 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:55 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:21 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:48 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:15 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:41 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:08 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:35 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:02 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:28 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:55 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:22 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:48 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:15 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:42 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:08 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:35 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:02 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:28 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:55 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |