For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.295% |
12.873% |
0.829% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.426% |
82.311% |
3.485% |
0.740% |
|
99.962% |
|
0.036% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.275% |
4.008% |
80.338% |
12.431% |
|
97.052% |
|
2.552% |
0.389% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.004% |
0.787% |
10.396% |
50.146% |
|
61.333% |
|
23.177% |
11.573% |
3.646% |
0.271% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.018% |
2.658% |
17.691% |
|
20.367% |
|
35.596% |
33.265% |
9.721% |
1.008% |
0.040% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.274% |
17.335% |
|
19.612% |
|
31.618% |
32.328% |
12.717% |
3.553% |
0.169% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.016% |
1.451% |
|
1.467% |
|
4.945% |
13.397% |
42.581% |
29.131% |
7.557% |
0.922% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.203% |
|
0.207% |
|
2.073% |
8.896% |
27.227% |
43.279% |
14.115% |
4.194% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.139% |
3.664% |
16.864% |
56.339% |
21.752% |
1.199% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.437% |
5.890% |
21.363% |
69.269% |
2.937% |
0.093% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.412% |
3.500% |
71.170% |
24.914% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.357% |
24.685% |
74.953% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
60.072% |
38.499% |
1.429% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
39.057% |
52.717% |
8.226% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.871% |
8.784% |
90.233% |
0.112% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.112% |
99.888% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – PeSTO 2.211 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.292% |
12.909% |
0.798% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.436% |
82.189% |
3.645% |
0.702% |
|
99.972% |
|
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.270% |
4.081% |
80.076% |
12.597% |
|
97.024% |
|
2.600% |
0.370% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.797% |
10.451% |
49.910% |
|
61.160% |
|
23.250% |
11.641% |
3.697% |
0.252% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.020% |
2.806% |
17.768% |
|
20.594% |
|
35.514% |
33.001% |
9.793% |
1.049% |
0.047% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.004% |
2.207% |
17.318% |
|
19.529% |
|
31.475% |
32.522% |
12.750% |
3.568% |
0.153% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.016% |
1.494% |
|
1.510% |
|
4.970% |
13.349% |
42.575% |
29.103% |
7.619% |
0.874% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.210% |
|
0.211% |
|
2.161% |
8.968% |
27.195% |
43.202% |
14.022% |
4.232% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.144% |
3.510% |
16.876% |
56.480% |
21.735% |
1.214% |
0.039% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.474% |
5.948% |
21.237% |
69.250% |
2.984% |
0.102% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.434% |
3.579% |
71.301% |
24.684% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.325% |
24.492% |
75.175% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
51.694% |
48.306% |
|
|
14. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.306% |
51.487% |
0.207% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.207% |
99.592% |
0.201% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.201% |
99.799% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – PeSTO 2.211 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.015% |
13.184% |
0.801% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.682% |
81.894% |
3.685% |
0.710% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.302% |
4.075% |
80.261% |
12.505% |
|
97.143% |
|
2.487% |
0.365% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.836% |
10.291% |
50.154% |
|
61.282% |
|
23.221% |
11.560% |
3.685% |
0.252% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.008% |
2.668% |
17.414% |
|
20.090% |
|
35.435% |
33.435% |
9.992% |
1.003% |
0.044% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.279% |
17.484% |
|
19.766% |
|
31.857% |
32.237% |
12.513% |
3.476% |
0.143% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.015% |
1.506% |
|
1.521% |
|
4.856% |
13.412% |
42.588% |
29.015% |
7.681% |
0.927% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.227% |
|
0.227% |
|
2.113% |
8.824% |
27.097% |
43.461% |
14.088% |
4.185% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.162% |
3.710% |
16.774% |
56.249% |
21.853% |
1.231% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.410% |
6.016% |
21.331% |
69.105% |
3.051% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.458% |
3.622% |
71.281% |
24.636% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.299% |
24.432% |
75.263% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
62.882% |
35.953% |
1.165% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
36.876% |
58.620% |
4.504% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.242% |
5.427% |
94.302% |
0.029% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.029% |
99.971% |
Speculate Nemorino 5.28 – PeSTO 2.211 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.336% |
12.837% |
0.826% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.363% |
82.251% |
3.625% |
0.728% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.298% |
4.090% |
80.676% |
12.172% |
|
97.236% |
|
2.446% |
0.315% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.003% |
0.799% |
10.052% |
50.326% |
|
61.180% |
|
23.072% |
11.791% |
3.662% |
0.295% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.020% |
2.660% |
17.583% |
|
20.263% |
|
35.399% |
33.367% |
9.928% |
0.991% |
0.052% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.148% |
17.527% |
|
19.678% |
|
31.887% |
32.154% |
12.627% |
3.503% |
0.147% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.013% |
1.476% |
|
1.489% |
|
5.012% |
13.390% |
42.683% |
28.911% |
7.604% |
0.911% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.187% |
|
0.187% |
|
2.148% |
8.838% |
27.199% |
43.433% |
14.029% |
4.162% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.135% |
3.484% |
17.017% |
56.488% |
21.613% |
1.226% |
0.034% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.414% |
5.850% |
21.240% |
69.415% |
2.993% |
0.078% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.428% |
3.574% |
71.450% |
24.548% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.321% |
24.327% |
75.340% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
76.016% |
20.377% |
3.607% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
21.213% |
54.633% |
24.154% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
2.771% |
24.990% |
72.239% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.43 |
0.84 |
1.15 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.37 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
15 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.0 |
36.53 |
0.83 |
3.09 |
0 |
4 |
84 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.32 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
45 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.07 |
0.85 |
5.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
30 |
41 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.87 |
0.86 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
49 |
24 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
51 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.84 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
80 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.14 |
0.85 |
11.13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
79 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
25.5 |
27.15 |
0.83 |
11.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
22.35 |
0.84 |
13.32 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
69 |
30 |
1 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.0 |
21.74 |
0.84 |
13.73 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
31 |
65 |
4 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.0 |
19.65 |
0.85 |
14.94 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
95 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 19:35 |
450 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
2020-02-26 21:02 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:28 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:55 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:22 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:48 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:15 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:42 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:08 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:35 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:02 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:28 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:55 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:22 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:48 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:15 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:42 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:08 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:35 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:02 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:28 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:55 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:22 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:48 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:15 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:42 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:08 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:35 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:02 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:28 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:55 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |