For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.353% |
12.829% |
0.816% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.364% |
82.223% |
3.678% |
0.702% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.283% |
4.099% |
80.284% |
12.422% |
|
97.088% |
|
2.556% |
0.349% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.829% |
10.278% |
49.778% |
|
60.885% |
|
23.385% |
11.825% |
3.634% |
0.271% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.017% |
2.749% |
17.795% |
|
20.561% |
|
35.449% |
33.081% |
9.881% |
0.999% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
2.182% |
17.640% |
|
19.825% |
|
31.568% |
32.366% |
12.604% |
3.463% |
0.167% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.011% |
1.460% |
|
1.471% |
|
4.898% |
13.307% |
42.384% |
29.302% |
7.727% |
0.911% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.201% |
|
0.203% |
|
2.105% |
8.911% |
27.481% |
43.154% |
13.953% |
4.185% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.155% |
3.547% |
16.979% |
56.350% |
21.783% |
1.152% |
0.028% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.462% |
5.829% |
21.373% |
69.337% |
2.905% |
0.088% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.394% |
3.457% |
71.320% |
24.826% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.320% |
24.615% |
75.058% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
62.676% |
36.171% |
1.153% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
37.065% |
58.527% |
4.408% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.259% |
5.302% |
94.423% |
0.016% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.016% |
99.984% |
Speculate Pedone 20200125 – Winter 0.7.4 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.982% |
13.191% |
0.823% |
0.004% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.704% |
81.810% |
3.685% |
0.768% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.312% |
4.111% |
80.187% |
12.508% |
|
97.118% |
|
2.522% |
0.352% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.864% |
10.320% |
49.797% |
|
60.983% |
|
23.167% |
11.860% |
3.711% |
0.279% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.019% |
2.676% |
17.730% |
|
20.425% |
|
35.591% |
32.937% |
10.004% |
0.993% |
0.048% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
2.293% |
17.509% |
|
19.807% |
|
31.580% |
32.568% |
12.382% |
3.512% |
0.145% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.015% |
1.489% |
|
1.504% |
|
4.939% |
13.208% |
42.476% |
29.204% |
7.707% |
0.962% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.195% |
|
0.196% |
|
2.166% |
8.933% |
27.362% |
43.167% |
13.925% |
4.244% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.137% |
3.605% |
16.994% |
56.238% |
21.680% |
1.281% |
0.063% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.452% |
5.847% |
21.464% |
68.909% |
3.158% |
0.165% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.458% |
3.583% |
58.041% |
37.914% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.614% |
37.513% |
61.858% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.296% |
47.613% |
2.091% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.226% |
46.568% |
4.206% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.478% |
5.819% |
93.682% |
0.021% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.021% |
99.979% |
Speculate Pedone 20200125 – Winter 0.7.4 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.276% |
12.919% |
0.804% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.442% |
82.229% |
3.591% |
0.706% |
|
99.968% |
|
0.031% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.281% |
4.068% |
80.226% |
12.527% |
|
97.102% |
|
2.516% |
0.376% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.770% |
10.442% |
49.759% |
|
60.972% |
|
23.461% |
11.589% |
3.698% |
0.280% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.012% |
2.689% |
17.759% |
|
20.460% |
|
35.592% |
33.108% |
9.783% |
1.020% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
2.232% |
17.586% |
|
19.820% |
|
31.423% |
32.465% |
12.696% |
3.428% |
0.166% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
1.464% |
|
1.478% |
|
4.877% |
13.385% |
42.741% |
28.966% |
7.569% |
0.984% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.198% |
|
0.200% |
|
2.099% |
8.908% |
27.134% |
43.330% |
14.078% |
4.241% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.158% |
3.523% |
16.993% |
56.352% |
21.757% |
1.203% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.419% |
5.980% |
21.354% |
69.202% |
2.995% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.444% |
3.708% |
77.862% |
17.983% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.106% |
17.930% |
81.964% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
66.436% |
33.017% |
0.547% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
33.446% |
61.699% |
4.855% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.118% |
5.284% |
94.571% |
0.027% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.027% |
99.973% |
Speculate Pedone 20200125 – Winter 0.7.4 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.362% |
12.804% |
0.832% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.318% |
82.164% |
3.752% |
0.737% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.319% |
4.176% |
80.455% |
12.232% |
|
97.182% |
|
2.462% |
0.351% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.830% |
9.976% |
50.040% |
|
60.847% |
|
23.421% |
11.650% |
3.798% |
0.284% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.024% |
2.748% |
17.673% |
|
20.445% |
|
35.248% |
33.335% |
9.932% |
0.992% |
0.045% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
2.222% |
17.593% |
|
19.817% |
|
31.672% |
32.458% |
12.507% |
3.394% |
0.148% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.014% |
1.495% |
|
1.509% |
|
4.953% |
13.229% |
42.562% |
29.163% |
7.664% |
0.920% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.228% |
|
0.229% |
|
2.211% |
8.809% |
27.234% |
43.354% |
14.040% |
4.113% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.161% |
3.577% |
17.053% |
56.764% |
21.297% |
1.144% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.385% |
5.753% |
20.921% |
69.998% |
2.929% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.418% |
3.658% |
85.051% |
10.866% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
10.866% |
89.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
78.985% |
20.894% |
0.121% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
21.015% |
73.999% |
4.986% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
5.107% |
94.857% |
0.036% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.036% |
99.964% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.43 |
0.83 |
1.15 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
15 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.0 |
36.53 |
0.83 |
3.09 |
0 |
4 |
84 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.23 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.33 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
45 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.07 |
0.85 |
5.61 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
30 |
41 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.87 |
0.85 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
50 |
24 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
51 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.84 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
80 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.14 |
0.85 |
11.14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
79 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
25.5 |
27.16 |
0.83 |
11.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
22.35 |
0.84 |
13.29 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
27 |
1 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.73 |
13.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
71 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.73 |
0.73 |
14.98 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
98 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 20:57 |
451 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-26 22:24 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:51 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:17 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:44 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:10 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:37 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:04 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:30 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:57 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:24 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:50 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:17 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:44 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:10 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:37 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:04 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:30 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:57 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:24 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:50 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:17 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:44 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:10 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:37 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:04 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:30 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:57 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:24 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:50 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |