For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.139% |
13.023% |
0.838% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.559% |
82.043% |
3.692% |
0.676% |
|
99.970% |
|
0.029% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.301% |
4.095% |
80.255% |
12.452% |
|
97.103% |
|
2.506% |
0.383% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.821% |
10.205% |
50.206% |
|
61.233% |
|
23.079% |
11.615% |
3.769% |
0.304% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.749% |
17.589% |
|
20.354% |
|
35.467% |
33.304% |
9.847% |
0.983% |
0.045% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.002% |
2.244% |
17.440% |
|
19.686% |
|
31.909% |
32.141% |
12.557% |
3.538% |
0.163% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.017% |
1.450% |
|
1.467% |
|
4.930% |
13.413% |
42.550% |
29.282% |
7.437% |
0.921% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.187% |
|
0.187% |
|
2.078% |
8.983% |
27.187% |
43.141% |
14.079% |
4.340% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.152% |
3.677% |
16.736% |
56.392% |
21.699% |
1.277% |
0.065% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.405% |
6.013% |
21.414% |
68.818% |
3.198% |
0.144% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.451% |
3.588% |
58.078% |
37.880% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
0.628% |
37.442% |
61.911% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.692% |
47.148% |
2.160% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.790% |
46.964% |
4.246% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.518% |
5.888% |
93.572% |
0.022% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.022% |
99.978% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – KomodoMCTS 2484.00 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.372% |
13.560% |
0.067% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.616% |
84.690% |
1.293% |
0.383% |
|
99.982% |
|
0.017% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.008% |
0.622% |
71.797% |
21.031% |
|
93.458% |
|
5.597% |
0.921% |
0.024% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.004% |
1.099% |
17.156% |
43.571% |
|
61.830% |
|
22.557% |
11.688% |
3.645% |
0.280% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.028% |
5.267% |
16.809% |
|
22.104% |
|
33.948% |
32.965% |
9.867% |
1.070% |
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
4.385% |
16.479% |
|
20.865% |
|
30.859% |
32.010% |
12.573% |
3.521% |
0.170% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.030% |
1.517% |
|
1.547% |
|
4.797% |
13.490% |
42.785% |
28.972% |
7.460% |
0.949% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.209% |
|
0.214% |
|
2.222% |
8.780% |
27.160% |
43.113% |
14.205% |
4.279% |
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.138% |
3.511% |
16.968% |
55.801% |
20.872% |
2.609% |
0.098% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.435% |
6.062% |
21.211% |
65.752% |
6.229% |
0.304% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
1.090% |
7.557% |
72.876% |
18.463% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.589% |
18.259% |
81.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.486% |
47.306% |
2.208% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.984% |
46.669% |
4.347% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.530% |
6.025% |
93.420% |
0.025% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.025% |
99.975% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – KomodoMCTS 2484.00 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.281% |
13.278% |
0.439% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.633% |
83.224% |
2.438% |
0.676% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.085% |
2.579% |
81.597% |
13.542% |
|
97.803% |
|
2.037% |
0.158% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.001% |
0.898% |
11.172% |
48.949% |
|
61.020% |
|
23.292% |
11.707% |
3.723% |
0.258% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.458% |
17.447% |
|
19.921% |
|
35.663% |
33.356% |
9.960% |
1.061% |
0.039% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.005% |
1.889% |
17.653% |
|
19.547% |
|
31.902% |
32.470% |
12.554% |
3.370% |
0.152% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.007% |
1.513% |
|
1.520% |
|
4.941% |
13.255% |
42.448% |
29.278% |
7.617% |
0.941% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.218% |
|
0.218% |
|
2.135% |
8.894% |
27.248% |
43.278% |
14.018% |
4.209% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.153% |
3.603% |
16.912% |
56.330% |
21.902% |
1.036% |
0.063% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.462% |
5.843% |
21.593% |
69.412% |
2.541% |
0.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.230% |
2.853% |
60.394% |
36.523% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.678% |
36.029% |
63.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.570% |
47.251% |
2.179% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.926% |
46.829% |
4.245% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.504% |
5.920% |
93.546% |
0.030% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.030% |
99.970% |
Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – KomodoMCTS 2484.00 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
85.863% |
12.481% |
1.652% |
0.004% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.476% |
78.977% |
6.490% |
1.008% |
|
99.951% |
|
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.659% |
7.952% |
85.982% |
4.971% |
|
99.564% |
|
0.415% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.587% |
4.348% |
56.096% |
|
61.033% |
|
23.554% |
11.545% |
3.609% |
0.259% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.002% |
0.852% |
18.201% |
|
19.055% |
|
36.676% |
33.401% |
9.817% |
1.006% |
0.043% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
0.676% |
18.032% |
|
18.709% |
|
32.288% |
32.684% |
12.520% |
3.639% |
0.156% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.485% |
|
1.485% |
|
4.852% |
13.315% |
42.765% |
29.062% |
7.605% |
0.916% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.203% |
|
0.203% |
|
2.162% |
8.872% |
27.206% |
43.551% |
13.884% |
4.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.154% |
3.618% |
16.692% |
56.987% |
22.156% |
0.364% |
0.025% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.465% |
5.791% |
21.282% |
71.216% |
1.165% |
0.073% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.715% |
53.633% |
45.630% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.869% |
44.838% |
54.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.577% |
47.230% |
2.193% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.919% |
46.882% |
4.199% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.504% |
5.888% |
93.583% |
0.025% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.025% |
99.975% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.42 |
0.84 |
1.16 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
15 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.0 |
36.53 |
0.83 |
3.09 |
0 |
4 |
84 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.23 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
62 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.31 |
0.84 |
5.32 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
46 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.06 |
0.85 |
5.62 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
30 |
42 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.87 |
0.85 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
50 |
24 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
50 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.31 |
0.84 |
8.86 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
80 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
26.5 |
28.13 |
0.85 |
11.25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
68 |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
72 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
38 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.73 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 22:18 |
452 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-26 23:45 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:11 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:38 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:05 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:31 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:58 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:25 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:51 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:18 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:45 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:11 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:38 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:05 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:31 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:58 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:25 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:51 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:18 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:44 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:11 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:38 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:04 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:31 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:58 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:24 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:51 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:18 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:44 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |