For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.146% |
13.403% |
0.451% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.750% |
82.985% |
2.504% |
0.723% |
|
99.962% |
|
0.037% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.102% |
2.674% |
81.413% |
13.699% |
|
97.888% |
|
1.920% |
0.190% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.912% |
11.322% |
48.934% |
|
61.170% |
|
23.405% |
11.472% |
3.679% |
0.274% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.022% |
2.422% |
17.436% |
|
19.880% |
|
35.486% |
33.579% |
9.998% |
1.017% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.004% |
1.877% |
17.504% |
|
19.385% |
|
31.987% |
32.304% |
12.722% |
3.442% |
0.158% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.011% |
1.506% |
|
1.517% |
|
4.991% |
13.460% |
42.453% |
28.970% |
7.691% |
0.918% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.198% |
|
0.198% |
|
2.173% |
8.854% |
27.120% |
43.281% |
14.114% |
4.260% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.134% |
3.579% |
17.229% |
56.258% |
21.677% |
1.069% |
0.053% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.447% |
5.787% |
21.483% |
69.561% |
2.566% |
0.150% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.241% |
2.917% |
60.651% |
36.191% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.665% |
35.714% |
63.606% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.604% |
47.202% |
2.194% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.895% |
46.866% |
4.239% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.501% |
5.932% |
93.537% |
0.030% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.030% |
99.970% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 – Laser 1.8_beta_256th 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.385% |
13.129% |
0.483% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.522% |
83.233% |
2.503% |
0.712% |
|
99.970% |
|
0.029% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.090% |
2.689% |
81.329% |
13.643% |
|
97.751% |
|
2.070% |
0.177% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.003% |
0.925% |
11.300% |
48.004% |
|
60.232% |
|
22.365% |
11.259% |
5.743% |
0.401% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.020% |
2.488% |
17.158% |
|
19.666% |
|
33.970% |
30.065% |
14.853% |
1.427% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.004% |
1.880% |
17.130% |
|
19.014% |
|
30.348% |
29.903% |
15.768% |
4.931% |
0.036% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
0.016% |
3.136% |
|
3.152% |
|
9.210% |
20.779% |
43.709% |
22.966% |
0.184% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.214% |
|
0.215% |
|
2.008% |
7.813% |
19.761% |
57.950% |
9.846% |
2.407% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.065% |
58.492% |
34.037% |
2.242% |
0.164% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.164% |
7.260% |
30.891% |
58.908% |
2.604% |
0.170% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.484% |
3.785% |
59.350% |
36.381% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.048% |
0.863% |
35.804% |
63.285% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.178% |
47.608% |
2.214% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.289% |
46.723% |
3.988% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.533% |
5.669% |
93.775% |
0.023% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.023% |
99.977% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 – Laser 1.8_beta_256th 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.519% |
13.025% |
0.454% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.392% |
83.342% |
2.529% |
0.708% |
|
99.971% |
|
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.087% |
2.638% |
81.335% |
13.785% |
|
97.845% |
|
2.001% |
0.154% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.977% |
11.251% |
49.155% |
|
61.385% |
|
23.581% |
11.387% |
3.392% |
0.255% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.015% |
2.529% |
17.620% |
|
20.164% |
|
36.495% |
34.022% |
8.449% |
0.837% |
0.032% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
1.902% |
17.754% |
|
19.659% |
|
32.358% |
32.973% |
11.743% |
3.131% |
0.131% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.777% |
|
0.777% |
|
3.425% |
12.358% |
46.344% |
32.777% |
4.084% |
0.235% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.199% |
|
0.199% |
|
2.111% |
9.086% |
28.681% |
41.868% |
13.669% |
4.386% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.970% |
15.327% |
63.146% |
20.009% |
0.515% |
0.019% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.421% |
5.805% |
18.805% |
72.242% |
2.571% |
0.150% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.120% |
2.553% |
60.754% |
36.573% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.569% |
36.160% |
63.258% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.500% |
47.376% |
2.124% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.993% |
46.816% |
4.191% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.507% |
5.808% |
93.654% |
0.031% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.031% |
99.969% |
Speculate RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 – Laser 1.8_beta_256th 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.328% |
13.206% |
0.465% |
0.001% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.575% |
83.289% |
2.432% |
0.672% |
|
99.968% |
|
0.032% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.095% |
2.616% |
81.495% |
13.663% |
|
97.869% |
|
1.940% |
0.191% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.867% |
11.306% |
49.455% |
|
61.630% |
|
24.260% |
12.194% |
1.790% |
0.126% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.021% |
2.421% |
17.887% |
|
20.329% |
|
37.214% |
36.284% |
5.439% |
0.658% |
0.072% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.001% |
1.881% |
17.981% |
|
19.863% |
|
33.162% |
35.054% |
9.558% |
2.054% |
0.304% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.200% |
|
0.200% |
|
2.201% |
9.892% |
34.517% |
28.223% |
19.009% |
5.958% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.141% |
|
0.141% |
|
1.185% |
5.949% |
38.201% |
33.155% |
18.840% |
2.529% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.413% |
9.691% |
31.336% |
49.050% |
9.405% |
0.099% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.023% |
0.804% |
4.448% |
12.680% |
79.283% |
2.628% |
0.134% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.045% |
2.280% |
61.385% |
36.290% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.536% |
35.888% |
63.576% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.576% |
47.299% |
2.125% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.913% |
46.956% |
4.131% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.511% |
5.745% |
93.707% |
0.037% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.037% |
99.963% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.42 |
0.84 |
1.16 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.87 |
15 |
82 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.71 |
3.09 |
0 |
2 |
87 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.84 |
4.29 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
62 |
19 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.31 |
0.84 |
5.33 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
46 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.07 |
0.85 |
5.61 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
30 |
41 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.0 |
32.88 |
0.86 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
50 |
24 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
24 |
51 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.0 |
31.30 |
0.84 |
8.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
15 |
80 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
73 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
38 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.72 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-26 23:45 |
453 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 01:12 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:38 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:05 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:32 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 06:58 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:25 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:52 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:18 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:45 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:11 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:38 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:05 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:31 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 19:58 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:25 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:51 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:18 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:45 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:11 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:38 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:05 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:31 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:58 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:25 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:51 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:18 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:45 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |