For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
86.087% |
13.476% |
0.434% |
0.003% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
13.828% |
82.914% |
2.545% |
0.687% |
|
99.974% |
|
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.085% |
2.674% |
81.539% |
13.487% |
|
97.785% |
|
2.061% |
0.154% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.912% |
11.065% |
49.447% |
|
61.424% |
|
23.412% |
11.430% |
3.495% |
0.239% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.021% |
2.471% |
17.604% |
|
20.096% |
|
36.457% |
34.026% |
8.527% |
0.854% |
0.038% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.003% |
1.946% |
17.816% |
|
19.765% |
|
32.330% |
32.695% |
11.838% |
3.213% |
0.154% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.762% |
|
0.762% |
|
3.533% |
12.322% |
46.329% |
32.746% |
4.051% |
0.257% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.194% |
|
0.194% |
|
2.180% |
9.354% |
28.446% |
42.008% |
13.550% |
4.268% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.941% |
15.216% |
63.269% |
19.968% |
0.584% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.011% |
0.424% |
5.724% |
18.769% |
72.342% |
2.538% |
0.191% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.154% |
2.557% |
60.913% |
36.376% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.601% |
35.965% |
63.419% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.614% |
47.190% |
2.196% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.894% |
46.938% |
4.168% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.492% |
5.872% |
93.600% |
0.036% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.036% |
99.964% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Ethereal 11.88 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
75.252% |
23.658% |
1.085% |
0.005% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
24.543% |
72.207% |
2.498% |
0.699% |
|
99.947% |
|
0.051% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.199% |
3.236% |
79.121% |
14.598% |
|
97.154% |
|
2.517% |
0.329% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
0.006% |
0.877% |
10.731% |
43.714% |
|
55.328% |
|
25.119% |
15.222% |
4.026% |
0.305% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
0.010% |
4.357% |
27.722% |
|
32.089% |
|
38.816% |
23.855% |
4.783% |
0.457% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.012% |
2.208% |
12.688% |
|
14.908% |
|
29.203% |
45.962% |
9.085% |
0.797% |
0.045% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.432% |
|
0.432% |
|
2.665% |
9.058% |
49.893% |
33.789% |
3.944% |
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.142% |
|
0.142% |
|
1.629% |
5.561% |
30.941% |
43.546% |
13.767% |
4.414% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.912% |
15.241% |
63.148% |
20.125% |
0.553% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.360% |
5.865% |
18.912% |
72.073% |
2.651% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.174% |
2.628% |
60.815% |
36.383% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.541% |
35.981% |
63.468% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.828% |
47.027% |
2.145% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.689% |
47.180% |
4.131% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.483% |
5.793% |
93.696% |
0.028% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.028% |
99.972% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Ethereal 11.88 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
87.377% |
12.425% |
0.198% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
12.564% |
84.282% |
2.489% |
0.638% |
|
99.973% |
|
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.059% |
2.390% |
82.399% |
13.080% |
|
97.928% |
|
1.934% |
0.138% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.886% |
11.171% |
49.431% |
|
61.488% |
|
23.187% |
11.620% |
3.447% |
0.258% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.017% |
2.480% |
17.821% |
|
20.318% |
|
35.463% |
34.459% |
8.871% |
0.858% |
0.031% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.262% |
18.077% |
|
19.339% |
|
33.826% |
33.977% |
10.701% |
2.157% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.732% |
|
0.732% |
|
3.413% |
11.118% |
47.303% |
33.228% |
3.966% |
0.240% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.221% |
|
0.222% |
|
2.150% |
8.681% |
28.378% |
42.504% |
13.696% |
4.369% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.885% |
15.337% |
63.442% |
19.775% |
0.543% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.415% |
5.658% |
18.705% |
72.503% |
2.578% |
0.135% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.145% |
2.566% |
61.240% |
36.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.547% |
35.639% |
63.799% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.501% |
47.220% |
2.279% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.961% |
46.857% |
4.182% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.538% |
5.923% |
93.507% |
0.032% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.032% |
99.968% |
Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev – Ethereal 11.88 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
95.047% |
4.953% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
4.953% |
91.877% |
2.476% |
0.667% |
|
99.973% |
|
0.027% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
2.264% |
83.373% |
12.661% |
|
98.298% |
|
1.656% |
0.046% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.896% |
11.238% |
54.315% |
|
66.449% |
|
22.254% |
8.205% |
2.867% |
0.225% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.010% |
2.650% |
21.983% |
|
24.643% |
|
43.613% |
23.267% |
7.578% |
0.858% |
0.039% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.263% |
9.075% |
|
9.338% |
|
25.323% |
40.270% |
18.576% |
6.131% |
0.346% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.067% |
|
1.067% |
|
4.495% |
15.692% |
42.792% |
31.591% |
4.091% |
0.272% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.232% |
|
0.232% |
|
2.632% |
12.501% |
26.647% |
40.178% |
13.489% |
4.321% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
1.063% |
15.182% |
62.885% |
20.269% |
0.576% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.477% |
5.835% |
18.975% |
71.980% |
2.581% |
0.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.169% |
2.573% |
60.839% |
36.419% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.567% |
36.004% |
63.423% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.307% |
47.545% |
2.148% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.238% |
46.614% |
4.148% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.455% |
5.841% |
93.674% |
0.030% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.030% |
99.970% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.0 |
39.42 |
0.84 |
1.15 |
85 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.36 |
0.84 |
1.88 |
15 |
82 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.49 |
0.71 |
3.09 |
0 |
3 |
87 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
63 |
19 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.31 |
0.84 |
5.31 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
46 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.0 |
34.07 |
0.85 |
5.59 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
30 |
42 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
55 |
27 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
25 |
50 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
8.91 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
69 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
73 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
38 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.72 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.82 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 01:13 |
454 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-27 02:40 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:06 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:33 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:00 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:26 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 09:53 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:20 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:46 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:13 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:40 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:06 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:33 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:00 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:26 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 22:53 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:20 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:46 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:13 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:39 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:06 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:33 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 08:59 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:26 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 11:53 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:19 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:46 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |