For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
87.430% |
12.392% |
0.178% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
12.521% |
84.191% |
2.548% |
0.707% |
|
99.967% |
|
0.033% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.049% |
2.455% |
82.259% |
13.185% |
|
97.948% |
|
1.910% |
0.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
0.946% |
11.249% |
49.833% |
|
62.028% |
|
22.774% |
11.395% |
3.519% |
0.284% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.016% |
2.541% |
17.548% |
|
20.105% |
|
35.507% |
34.703% |
8.781% |
0.863% |
0.040% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.225% |
17.852% |
|
19.077% |
|
34.165% |
34.152% |
10.442% |
2.164% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.687% |
|
0.687% |
|
3.394% |
11.035% |
47.464% |
33.269% |
3.921% |
0.230% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.188% |
|
0.188% |
|
2.217% |
8.563% |
28.499% |
42.439% |
13.743% |
4.351% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.881% |
15.127% |
63.472% |
19.975% |
0.524% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.414% |
5.854% |
18.650% |
72.339% |
2.563% |
0.175% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.159% |
2.485% |
60.773% |
36.583% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.619% |
36.140% |
63.226% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.373% |
47.422% |
2.205% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.157% |
46.666% |
4.177% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.470% |
5.912% |
93.590% |
0.028% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.028% |
99.972% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.509% |
21.298% |
0.193% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.478% |
78.247% |
0.275% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.013% |
0.455% |
91.523% |
6.865% |
|
98.856% |
|
1.055% |
0.089% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.634% |
42.628% |
|
46.262% |
|
29.107% |
17.481% |
6.576% |
0.574% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.947% |
24.803% |
|
27.750% |
|
32.303% |
30.724% |
8.350% |
0.841% |
0.028% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.427% |
24.100% |
|
25.527% |
|
30.920% |
31.019% |
10.369% |
2.165% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.239% |
|
1.239% |
|
4.304% |
12.095% |
45.348% |
32.776% |
3.971% |
0.267% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.365% |
|
0.366% |
|
2.311% |
8.580% |
28.105% |
42.375% |
13.858% |
4.405% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.859% |
15.534% |
63.375% |
19.670% |
0.547% |
0.010% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.393% |
5.735% |
18.622% |
72.532% |
2.551% |
0.160% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.138% |
2.557% |
61.058% |
36.247% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.565% |
35.844% |
63.583% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.142% |
47.653% |
2.205% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.316% |
46.528% |
4.156% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.542% |
5.819% |
93.605% |
0.034% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.034% |
99.966% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
90.588% |
9.190% |
0.222% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
9.372% |
89.062% |
1.566% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.040% |
1.748% |
85.968% |
10.338% |
|
98.094% |
|
1.749% |
0.157% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
8.412% |
55.368% |
|
63.780% |
|
23.134% |
10.536% |
2.468% |
0.082% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.507% |
16.308% |
|
18.815% |
|
35.883% |
35.398% |
9.017% |
0.850% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.324% |
17.246% |
|
18.570% |
|
34.197% |
34.626% |
10.442% |
2.165% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.599% |
|
0.599% |
|
2.998% |
10.757% |
48.340% |
33.153% |
3.888% |
0.265% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.141% |
|
0.142% |
|
2.039% |
8.519% |
28.527% |
42.543% |
13.866% |
4.364% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.794% |
15.436% |
63.263% |
19.965% |
0.528% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.412% |
5.771% |
18.797% |
72.257% |
2.603% |
0.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.137% |
2.575% |
60.885% |
36.403% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.574% |
35.984% |
63.430% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.504% |
47.300% |
2.196% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.967% |
46.986% |
4.047% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.529% |
5.714% |
93.725% |
0.032% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.032% |
99.968% |
Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
96.395% |
3.438% |
0.167% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
3.509% |
87.992% |
6.297% |
2.113% |
|
99.911% |
|
0.089% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.096% |
5.722% |
67.396% |
23.459% |
|
96.673% |
|
3.097% |
0.230% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
2.800% |
23.258% |
53.530% |
|
79.588% |
|
14.854% |
5.020% |
0.538% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
0.048% |
1.896% |
10.155% |
|
12.099% |
|
39.154% |
38.595% |
9.219% |
0.886% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.986% |
10.561% |
|
11.547% |
|
38.488% |
36.911% |
10.772% |
2.282% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.149% |
|
0.149% |
|
2.313% |
10.638% |
49.246% |
33.326% |
4.058% |
0.270% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.033% |
|
0.033% |
|
2.005% |
8.593% |
28.922% |
42.527% |
13.555% |
4.365% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.894% |
15.146% |
63.414% |
20.002% |
0.518% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.409% |
5.833% |
18.745% |
72.245% |
2.617% |
0.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.159% |
2.527% |
60.798% |
36.516% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.022% |
0.591% |
36.067% |
63.320% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.520% |
47.305% |
2.175% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.948% |
46.880% |
4.172% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.532% |
5.815% |
93.620% |
0.033% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.033% |
99.967% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.14 |
86 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
36.0 |
38.37 |
0.84 |
1.89 |
14 |
83 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.09 |
0 |
2 |
87 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
35.22 |
0.85 |
4.28 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
64 |
18 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.31 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
46 |
31 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.09 |
0.73 |
5.56 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
32 |
44 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
56 |
27 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
25 |
51 |
15 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
69 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.72 |
11.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
73 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.91 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
39 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.67 |
0.72 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.73 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.82 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 02:54 |
455 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-27 04:21 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:48 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:14 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:41 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:08 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:34 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 13:01 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:28 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:54 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:21 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:48 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:14 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:41 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:08 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:34 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:01 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:28 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:55 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:21 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:48 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:15 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:41 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:08 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:35 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:01 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |