For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.674% |
21.106% |
0.220% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.307% |
78.429% |
0.264% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.019% |
0.465% |
91.217% |
7.136% |
|
98.837% |
|
1.090% |
0.073% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.663% |
42.945% |
|
46.608% |
|
28.782% |
17.616% |
6.455% |
0.539% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
3.153% |
24.027% |
|
27.180% |
|
32.801% |
30.715% |
8.437% |
0.833% |
0.032% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.483% |
24.282% |
|
25.765% |
|
30.751% |
31.047% |
10.295% |
2.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.238% |
|
1.238% |
|
4.309% |
12.084% |
45.500% |
32.744% |
3.895% |
0.230% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.372% |
|
0.372% |
|
2.267% |
8.453% |
28.012% |
42.552% |
13.893% |
4.451% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.872% |
15.254% |
63.253% |
20.056% |
0.542% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.429% |
5.936% |
18.769% |
72.002% |
2.700% |
0.158% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.145% |
2.672% |
60.874% |
36.309% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.587% |
35.884% |
63.516% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.441% |
47.436% |
2.123% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.058% |
46.684% |
4.258% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.501% |
5.880% |
93.586% |
0.033% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.033% |
99.967% |
Speculate Arasan 22.0_f928f5c – Andscacs 0.95123 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.388% |
21.400% |
0.212% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.602% |
78.097% |
0.301% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.010% |
0.503% |
91.376% |
6.944% |
|
98.833% |
|
1.095% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.638% |
42.937% |
|
46.575% |
|
29.658% |
17.621% |
6.007% |
0.139% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.990% |
24.648% |
|
27.638% |
|
32.679% |
32.040% |
7.192% |
0.400% |
0.045% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.483% |
24.218% |
|
25.701% |
|
31.597% |
33.449% |
8.134% |
1.119% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.235% |
|
1.235% |
|
4.354% |
12.648% |
54.353% |
22.613% |
4.276% |
0.521% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
|
0.018% |
|
0.617% |
4.152% |
21.831% |
41.160% |
22.444% |
9.778% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
1.498% |
22.082% |
45.415% |
30.306% |
0.677% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.985% |
12.487% |
27.770% |
58.313% |
0.432% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.048% |
0.963% |
62.707% |
36.282% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.113% |
36.184% |
63.701% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.335% |
47.498% |
2.167% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.152% |
46.702% |
4.146% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.513% |
5.800% |
93.664% |
0.023% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.023% |
99.977% |
Speculate Arasan 22.0_f928f5c – Andscacs 0.95123 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.307% |
21.459% |
0.234% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.677% |
78.043% |
0.280% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.016% |
0.498% |
91.277% |
7.046% |
|
98.837% |
|
1.080% |
0.083% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.749% |
42.923% |
|
46.672% |
|
29.209% |
17.254% |
6.373% |
0.492% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
3.018% |
24.493% |
|
27.511% |
|
32.680% |
30.781% |
8.256% |
0.743% |
0.029% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.442% |
24.086% |
|
25.528% |
|
30.732% |
31.167% |
10.347% |
2.226% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.257% |
|
1.257% |
|
4.275% |
12.114% |
44.086% |
34.433% |
3.702% |
0.133% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.195% |
|
0.195% |
|
2.024% |
8.598% |
30.260% |
46.649% |
11.133% |
1.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.678% |
13.590% |
67.400% |
17.729% |
0.585% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.867% |
17.571% |
78.373% |
2.142% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.150% |
2.201% |
61.140% |
36.509% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.423% |
36.133% |
63.429% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.625% |
47.263% |
2.112% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.885% |
46.975% |
4.140% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.490% |
5.762% |
93.717% |
0.031% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.031% |
99.969% |
Speculate Arasan 22.0_f928f5c – Andscacs 0.95123 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.659% |
21.121% |
0.220% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.329% |
78.397% |
0.274% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.012% |
0.482% |
91.454% |
6.914% |
|
98.862% |
|
1.059% |
0.079% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.503% |
42.702% |
|
46.205% |
|
28.508% |
17.105% |
6.963% |
1.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
3.112% |
24.341% |
|
27.453% |
|
32.044% |
28.645% |
10.224% |
1.584% |
0.050% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.435% |
23.783% |
|
25.218% |
|
29.054% |
28.736% |
13.357% |
3.635% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
0.002% |
1.033% |
|
1.035% |
|
5.140% |
14.764% |
35.408% |
40.048% |
3.605% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.227% |
|
1.227% |
|
4.195% |
10.669% |
33.880% |
46.294% |
3.735% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.168% |
7.220% |
84.163% |
8.017% |
0.413% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.158% |
85.204% |
6.204% |
0.434% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.259% |
5.462% |
58.272% |
36.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.030% |
1.317% |
35.111% |
63.542% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.524% |
47.323% |
2.153% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.981% |
46.771% |
4.248% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.495% |
5.906% |
93.560% |
0.039% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.039% |
99.961% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.72 |
1.26 |
74 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.0 |
38.83 |
0.72 |
1.75 |
26 |
74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.04 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
34.76 |
0.73 |
4.61 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
55 |
26 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.19 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
23 |
40 |
28 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.10 |
0.73 |
5.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
30 |
40 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
54 |
27 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
30.5 |
32.26 |
0.85 |
7.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
25 |
51 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.32 |
0.72 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
69 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.0 |
30.18 |
0.86 |
9.87 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
83 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
73 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
39 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.73 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.43 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 04:29 |
456 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-27 05:56 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:23 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:49 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:16 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:43 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 13:09 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:36 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 16:03 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:29 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:56 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:23 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:50 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:16 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:43 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:10 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:36 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 05:03 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:30 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:56 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:23 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:50 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:17 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:43 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:10 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |