For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.488% |
21.296% |
0.216% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.491% |
78.234% |
0.275% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.021% |
0.470% |
91.303% |
7.064% |
|
98.858% |
|
1.070% |
0.072% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.560% |
42.901% |
|
46.461% |
|
29.129% |
17.665% |
6.318% |
0.427% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
3.144% |
24.642% |
|
27.786% |
|
32.424% |
30.909% |
8.104% |
0.756% |
0.021% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.502% |
24.057% |
|
25.559% |
|
30.947% |
30.817% |
10.495% |
2.182% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.172% |
|
1.172% |
|
4.436% |
11.855% |
43.813% |
34.919% |
3.660% |
0.145% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.164% |
|
0.164% |
|
1.994% |
8.678% |
30.579% |
46.484% |
10.893% |
1.208% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.691% |
13.375% |
67.561% |
17.803% |
0.549% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.857% |
17.686% |
78.374% |
2.028% |
0.055% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.165% |
2.052% |
61.578% |
36.205% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
0.418% |
35.845% |
63.723% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.394% |
47.379% |
2.227% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.059% |
46.837% |
4.104% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.547% |
5.784% |
93.640% |
0.029% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.029% |
99.971% |
Speculate rofChade 2.213 – Fizbo 2 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.639% |
21.152% |
0.209% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.345% |
78.347% |
0.308% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.016% |
0.501% |
89.892% |
7.964% |
|
98.373% |
|
1.528% |
0.099% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.460% |
36.358% |
|
39.818% |
|
31.968% |
20.616% |
7.113% |
0.485% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
4.696% |
33.619% |
|
38.315% |
|
35.301% |
23.124% |
3.173% |
0.087% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.435% |
21.139% |
|
22.574% |
|
26.622% |
36.907% |
11.542% |
2.355% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.821% |
|
0.821% |
|
3.402% |
10.835% |
46.294% |
34.766% |
3.729% |
0.153% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.099% |
|
0.099% |
|
1.179% |
8.419% |
31.277% |
46.791% |
11.068% |
1.167% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.601% |
13.657% |
67.408% |
17.754% |
0.564% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.859% |
17.619% |
78.309% |
2.151% |
0.062% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.161% |
2.183% |
61.292% |
36.364% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.434% |
35.993% |
63.558% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.548% |
47.294% |
2.158% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.968% |
46.908% |
4.124% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.484% |
5.798% |
93.718% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate rofChade 2.213 – Fizbo 2 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.456% |
21.328% |
0.216% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.523% |
78.188% |
0.289% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.021% |
0.484% |
92.868% |
5.864% |
|
99.237% |
|
0.726% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.906% |
47.828% |
|
51.734% |
|
25.952% |
15.687% |
6.152% |
0.475% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.537% |
26.613% |
|
28.150% |
|
32.381% |
27.217% |
10.017% |
2.235% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
1.184% |
18.039% |
|
19.223% |
|
33.702% |
36.319% |
10.154% |
0.602% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.433% |
|
1.433% |
|
4.940% |
12.313% |
42.878% |
34.499% |
3.798% |
0.139% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.223% |
|
0.223% |
|
2.299% |
8.427% |
30.127% |
46.718% |
11.064% |
1.142% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.672% |
13.628% |
67.284% |
17.851% |
0.550% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.843% |
17.666% |
78.302% |
2.132% |
0.057% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.173% |
2.125% |
61.520% |
36.182% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.441% |
35.798% |
63.746% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.485% |
47.376% |
2.139% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.989% |
46.883% |
4.128% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.526% |
5.741% |
93.733% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate rofChade 2.213 – Fizbo 2 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.428% |
21.352% |
0.220% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.557% |
78.149% |
0.294% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.015% |
0.499% |
93.632% |
5.436% |
|
99.582% |
|
0.396% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
4.033% |
55.653% |
|
59.686% |
|
23.906% |
11.182% |
4.817% |
0.409% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.619% |
29.509% |
|
31.128% |
|
40.539% |
18.728% |
7.732% |
1.873% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
0.202% |
7.084% |
|
7.286% |
|
24.765% |
44.654% |
20.291% |
2.842% |
0.162% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.890% |
|
1.890% |
|
6.466% |
15.681% |
38.623% |
33.455% |
3.732% |
0.153% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.428% |
|
0.428% |
|
3.928% |
9.703% |
27.682% |
45.996% |
11.102% |
1.161% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.030% |
0.855% |
13.422% |
67.333% |
17.765% |
0.575% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.003% |
17.491% |
78.340% |
2.106% |
0.060% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.164% |
2.125% |
61.382% |
36.329% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.456% |
35.937% |
63.591% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.535% |
47.261% |
2.204% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.957% |
46.829% |
4.214% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.508% |
5.910% |
93.459% |
0.123% |
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
0.123% |
99.877% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.25 |
75 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.0 |
38.82 |
0.72 |
1.75 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.04 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
34.76 |
0.73 |
4.60 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
55 |
26 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
32.0 |
34.30 |
0.84 |
5.19 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
23 |
40 |
28 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.10 |
0.73 |
5.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
30 |
41 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
11 |
53 |
28 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.0 |
32.32 |
0.73 |
7.73 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
27 |
54 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
75 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.5 |
30.13 |
0.74 |
9.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
89 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.72 |
11.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
74 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.58 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
38 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.62 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.73 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.44 |
0.81 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 05:48 |
457 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-27 07:15 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:41 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:08 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:35 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 13:01 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:28 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:55 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:22 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:48 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:15 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:42 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:08 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:35 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:02 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:28 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:55 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:22 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:48 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:15 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:42 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:08 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:35 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:02 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |