For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.517% |
21.247% |
0.236% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.467% |
78.229% |
0.304% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.016% |
0.524% |
89.832% |
8.054% |
|
98.426% |
|
1.457% |
0.117% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.398% |
36.390% |
|
39.788% |
|
32.346% |
20.465% |
6.899% |
0.502% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
4.853% |
33.449% |
|
38.302% |
|
34.901% |
23.392% |
3.331% |
0.074% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.377% |
21.106% |
|
22.483% |
|
26.659% |
37.146% |
11.394% |
2.318% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.915% |
|
0.915% |
|
3.464% |
10.549% |
46.334% |
34.863% |
3.739% |
0.136% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.086% |
|
0.086% |
|
1.173% |
8.331% |
31.451% |
46.743% |
11.047% |
1.169% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.591% |
13.690% |
67.295% |
17.836% |
0.572% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.810% |
17.747% |
78.224% |
2.172% |
0.047% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.156% |
2.192% |
61.495% |
36.157% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.443% |
35.761% |
63.780% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.520% |
47.311% |
2.169% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
48.953% |
46.948% |
4.099% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
0.527% |
5.741% |
93.732% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – rofChade 2.213 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.430% |
21.319% |
0.251% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.553% |
78.196% |
0.251% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.017% |
0.485% |
93.784% |
5.155% |
|
99.441% |
|
0.519% |
0.040% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.717% |
52.145% |
|
55.862% |
|
23.443% |
14.164% |
6.075% |
0.456% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.638% |
28.266% |
|
29.904% |
|
34.319% |
23.754% |
9.716% |
2.307% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
0.359% |
12.587% |
|
12.946% |
|
34.450% |
42.722% |
9.557% |
0.325% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.603% |
|
1.603% |
|
4.886% |
11.383% |
43.661% |
34.598% |
3.743% |
0.126% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.244% |
|
0.244% |
|
2.383% |
7.937% |
30.364% |
46.642% |
11.251% |
1.179% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.627% |
13.697% |
67.133% |
17.957% |
0.575% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.975% |
17.705% |
78.153% |
2.125% |
0.042% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.151% |
2.163% |
61.373% |
36.313% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.422% |
35.927% |
63.634% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.259% |
43.118% |
6.623% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
47.717% |
41.514% |
10.769% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
2.024% |
15.368% |
82.608% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – rofChade 2.213 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.372% |
21.415% |
0.213% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.615% |
78.112% |
0.273% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.013% |
0.473% |
92.037% |
6.340% |
|
98.863% |
|
1.044% |
0.093% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.602% |
40.917% |
|
44.519% |
|
28.291% |
19.572% |
7.097% |
0.521% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
2.362% |
28.067% |
|
30.429% |
|
39.554% |
27.288% |
2.706% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.513% |
23.535% |
|
25.048% |
|
26.602% |
34.505% |
11.584% |
2.261% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.041% |
|
1.041% |
|
3.350% |
10.237% |
46.539% |
34.937% |
3.769% |
0.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.100% |
|
0.100% |
|
1.159% |
8.305% |
31.433% |
46.765% |
11.050% |
1.188% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.641% |
13.556% |
67.429% |
17.792% |
0.566% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.937% |
17.586% |
78.343% |
2.076% |
0.058% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.151% |
2.126% |
61.173% |
36.550% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.424% |
36.185% |
63.376% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.582% |
47.361% |
2.057% |
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.418% |
46.662% |
3.920% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
5.977% |
94.023% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate PeSTO 2.211 – rofChade 2.213 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.597% |
21.172% |
0.231% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.381% |
78.324% |
0.295% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.022% |
0.504% |
86.687% |
10.352% |
|
97.565% |
|
2.294% |
0.141% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.281% |
46.515% |
|
54.796% |
|
33.008% |
11.762% |
0.434% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.238% |
26.447% |
|
29.685% |
|
38.255% |
24.254% |
7.350% |
0.456% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.268% |
16.204% |
|
17.472% |
|
23.174% |
44.662% |
12.380% |
2.312% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.468% |
|
0.468% |
|
2.600% |
10.439% |
47.696% |
34.917% |
3.724% |
0.156% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.669% |
8.742% |
31.481% |
46.791% |
11.166% |
1.137% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.659% |
13.627% |
67.339% |
17.784% |
0.568% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.897% |
17.591% |
78.386% |
2.077% |
0.049% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.173% |
2.098% |
61.289% |
36.440% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.439% |
36.066% |
63.488% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.677% |
49.323% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.323% |
49.735% |
0.942% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.942% |
99.058% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.25 |
75 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.0 |
38.82 |
0.72 |
1.75 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.05 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
34.76 |
0.73 |
4.73 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
47 |
29 |
18 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
33.0 |
34.62 |
0.74 |
4.86 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
34 |
43 |
19 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.10 |
0.73 |
5.58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
49 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.84 |
0.73 |
7.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
56 |
29 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.0 |
32.32 |
0.73 |
7.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
28 |
54 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
16 |
74 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.5 |
30.13 |
0.74 |
9.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
88 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.19 |
0.73 |
11.22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
74 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.42 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
39 |
2 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.73 |
13.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.72 |
0.73 |
14.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
97 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.11 |
0.71 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 07:12 |
458 |
Fizbo 2 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-27 08:39 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:05 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:32 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 12:59 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:25 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:52 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:19 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:45 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:12 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:39 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:06 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:32 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 01:59 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:26 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:52 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:19 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:46 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:12 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:39 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:06 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:32 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 14:59 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |