For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.416% |
21.369% |
0.215% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.568% |
78.150% |
0.282% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.016% |
0.481% |
86.906% |
10.258% |
|
97.661% |
|
2.194% |
0.145% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.225% |
46.191% |
|
54.416% |
|
33.368% |
11.791% |
0.425% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.112% |
26.521% |
|
29.633% |
|
38.154% |
24.224% |
7.527% |
0.462% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.260% |
16.547% |
|
17.807% |
|
23.004% |
44.776% |
12.076% |
2.337% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.467% |
|
0.467% |
|
2.629% |
10.560% |
47.746% |
34.722% |
3.749% |
0.127% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
|
0.016% |
|
0.651% |
8.504% |
31.576% |
46.924% |
11.139% |
1.190% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.650% |
13.706% |
67.493% |
17.596% |
0.538% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.849% |
17.452% |
78.513% |
2.135% |
0.051% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.148% |
2.126% |
61.242% |
36.484% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
0.448% |
36.085% |
63.448% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.442% |
49.558% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.558% |
49.472% |
0.970% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.970% |
99.030% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.830% |
20.980% |
0.190% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.156% |
78.537% |
0.307% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.014% |
0.483% |
86.971% |
10.195% |
|
97.663% |
|
2.180% |
0.157% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.206% |
47.002% |
|
55.208% |
|
32.937% |
11.465% |
0.390% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.103% |
26.363% |
|
29.466% |
|
38.622% |
24.132% |
7.320% |
0.460% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.223% |
15.940% |
|
17.163% |
|
22.940% |
45.028% |
12.457% |
2.412% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.483% |
|
0.483% |
|
2.662% |
10.467% |
47.729% |
35.100% |
3.559% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
|
0.017% |
|
0.659% |
8.751% |
31.499% |
48.118% |
10.956% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.605% |
13.910% |
79.701% |
5.390% |
0.388% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.457% |
89.149% |
5.240% |
0.154% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.297% |
4.538% |
58.778% |
36.387% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.030% |
0.923% |
35.594% |
63.453% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.669% |
49.331% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.331% |
49.724% |
0.945% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.945% |
99.055% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.568% |
21.199% |
0.233% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.410% |
78.295% |
0.295% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.022% |
0.506% |
86.776% |
10.342% |
|
97.646% |
|
2.191% |
0.163% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.401% |
46.174% |
|
54.575% |
|
33.088% |
11.927% |
0.410% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.076% |
26.722% |
|
29.798% |
|
38.338% |
23.920% |
7.463% |
0.481% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.219% |
16.250% |
|
17.469% |
|
23.070% |
44.714% |
12.415% |
2.332% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.488% |
|
0.488% |
|
2.663% |
10.667% |
47.518% |
35.119% |
3.545% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.024% |
|
0.024% |
|
0.650% |
8.609% |
31.567% |
47.531% |
10.923% |
0.696% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.627% |
13.937% |
70.918% |
13.936% |
0.560% |
0.022% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.600% |
14.464% |
83.480% |
1.439% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.132% |
1.509% |
62.075% |
36.284% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.018% |
0.379% |
35.926% |
63.677% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.315% |
49.685% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.685% |
49.319% |
0.996% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.996% |
99.004% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Fizbo 2 – Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
78.487% |
21.308% |
0.205% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
21.499% |
78.255% |
0.246% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.014% |
0.437% |
86.983% |
10.242% |
|
97.676% |
|
2.174% |
0.150% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.174% |
46.081% |
|
54.255% |
|
33.378% |
11.963% |
0.404% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.144% |
26.796% |
|
29.940% |
|
38.119% |
24.160% |
7.359% |
0.422% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.248% |
16.396% |
|
17.644% |
|
23.095% |
44.753% |
12.224% |
2.284% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.471% |
|
0.471% |
|
2.590% |
10.557% |
47.684% |
34.248% |
4.118% |
0.332% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
0.014% |
|
0.014% |
|
0.644% |
8.417% |
31.648% |
45.244% |
11.674% |
2.359% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.681% |
13.540% |
55.939% |
29.185% |
0.640% |
0.015% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.262% |
28.225% |
67.312% |
0.201% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.044% |
0.734% |
62.580% |
36.642% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.078% |
36.579% |
63.343% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.612% |
49.388% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.388% |
49.684% |
0.928% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.928% |
99.072% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.25 |
75 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.0 |
38.82 |
0.72 |
1.75 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.71 |
3.07 |
0 |
0 |
94 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
34.0 |
35.00 |
0.61 |
4.49 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
52 |
38 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
34.76 |
0.73 |
4.90 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
34 |
39 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.10 |
0.73 |
5.73 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
21 |
57 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
57 |
28 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.0 |
32.32 |
0.73 |
7.76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
27 |
55 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
8.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
75 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
28.5 |
30.12 |
0.74 |
9.93 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
89 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
73 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.93 |
0.72 |
13.40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
40 |
0 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.73 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
60 |
0 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.34 |
0.60 |
15.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
16.12 |
0.71 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 08:43 |
459 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-27 10:10 |
460 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-27 11:36 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 13:03 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:30 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 15:56 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:23 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:50 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:16 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:43 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:10 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:37 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:03 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:30 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 04:57 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:23 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:50 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:17 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:43 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:10 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:37 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:03 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |