For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
83.617% |
16.150% |
0.233% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
16.369% |
83.631% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.014% |
0.219% |
87.091% |
10.285% |
|
97.609% |
|
2.224% |
0.167% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.233% |
46.201% |
|
54.434% |
|
33.220% |
11.994% |
0.352% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
3.191% |
26.621% |
|
29.812% |
|
38.417% |
24.046% |
7.407% |
0.318% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
1.252% |
16.397% |
|
17.649% |
|
23.193% |
43.977% |
12.513% |
2.668% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.496% |
|
0.496% |
|
2.651% |
10.366% |
44.863% |
37.131% |
4.146% |
0.347% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.295% |
9.450% |
34.618% |
46.418% |
8.396% |
0.823% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.247% |
10.575% |
59.397% |
29.131% |
0.632% |
0.018% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.890% |
28.014% |
68.877% |
0.219% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.047% |
0.755% |
62.743% |
36.455% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
36.406% |
63.527% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.713% |
49.287% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.287% |
49.717% |
0.996% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.996% |
99.004% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
83.947% |
15.823% |
0.230% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
16.041% |
83.959% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.012% |
0.218% |
85.137% |
11.403% |
|
96.770% |
|
3.123% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.196% |
44.791% |
|
52.987% |
|
36.488% |
9.966% |
0.559% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.429% |
42.628% |
|
49.057% |
|
46.942% |
3.574% |
0.427% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.008% |
0.633% |
|
0.641% |
|
11.090% |
62.985% |
20.067% |
5.217% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.545% |
|
0.545% |
|
2.357% |
9.554% |
46.186% |
36.769% |
4.253% |
0.336% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.814% |
32.453% |
44.891% |
8.099% |
0.743% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.308% |
10.327% |
59.326% |
29.360% |
0.662% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.796% |
28.272% |
68.730% |
0.202% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.757% |
62.811% |
36.382% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.074% |
36.325% |
63.601% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.631% |
49.369% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.369% |
49.699% |
0.932% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.932% |
99.068% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
83.876% |
15.904% |
0.220% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
16.111% |
83.889% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.013% |
0.207% |
89.524% |
8.831% |
|
98.575% |
|
1.178% |
0.247% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.966% |
51.555% |
|
60.521% |
|
21.313% |
17.741% |
0.425% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
0.690% |
21.657% |
|
22.347% |
|
43.369% |
26.805% |
7.341% |
0.138% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.600% |
17.277% |
|
17.877% |
|
30.142% |
41.638% |
9.618% |
0.725% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.680% |
|
0.680% |
|
3.590% |
6.897% |
46.377% |
37.877% |
4.218% |
0.361% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.408% |
6.672% |
35.984% |
47.802% |
8.350% |
0.784% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.255% |
10.499% |
59.240% |
29.328% |
0.666% |
0.012% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.959% |
28.147% |
68.684% |
0.210% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.045% |
0.762% |
62.708% |
36.485% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.081% |
36.416% |
63.503% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.716% |
49.284% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.284% |
49.721% |
0.995% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.995% |
99.005% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Defenchess 2.3_dev 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
83.635% |
16.128% |
0.237% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
16.345% |
83.655% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.020% |
0.217% |
87.758% |
10.106% |
|
98.101% |
|
1.777% |
0.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
7.924% |
43.307% |
|
51.231% |
|
39.071% |
9.672% |
0.026% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
4.041% |
42.179% |
|
46.220% |
|
37.502% |
13.773% |
2.505% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
0.040% |
4.189% |
|
4.229% |
|
18.909% |
56.996% |
18.758% |
1.108% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.219% |
|
0.219% |
|
2.125% |
15.219% |
40.957% |
37.123% |
4.041% |
0.316% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.616% |
4.218% |
37.476% |
48.572% |
8.338% |
0.780% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.278% |
10.352% |
59.266% |
29.456% |
0.632% |
0.016% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.845% |
28.305% |
68.666% |
0.184% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.720% |
62.840% |
36.390% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.062% |
36.344% |
63.594% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.811% |
49.189% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.189% |
49.872% |
0.939% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.939% |
99.061% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.20 |
80 |
20 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.5 |
38.74 |
0.57 |
1.80 |
20 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.49 |
0.70 |
3.07 |
0 |
0 |
94 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
34.0 |
35.00 |
0.60 |
4.49 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
51 |
39 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
33.0 |
34.76 |
0.73 |
4.89 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
35 |
38 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
34.10 |
0.73 |
5.72 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
21 |
58 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
55 |
30 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.5 |
32.40 |
0.60 |
7.70 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
31 |
57 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.32 |
0.72 |
9.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
71 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
29.5 |
30.57 |
0.60 |
9.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
75 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
76 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
40 |
0 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
60 |
0 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.34 |
0.60 |
15.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
15.67 |
0.57 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 11:44 |
461 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-27 13:11 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:38 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 16:04 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:31 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 18:58 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:25 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:51 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:18 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:45 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:11 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:38 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 05:05 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:31 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 07:58 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:25 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:52 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:18 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:45 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:12 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |