For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
83.793% |
15.979% |
0.228% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
16.195% |
83.805% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.012% |
0.216% |
85.381% |
11.269% |
|
96.878% |
|
3.000% |
0.122% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.049% |
44.952% |
|
53.001% |
|
36.615% |
9.843% |
0.541% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.337% |
42.507% |
|
48.844% |
|
47.116% |
3.590% |
0.450% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.694% |
|
0.699% |
|
10.953% |
63.230% |
20.056% |
5.062% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.578% |
|
0.578% |
|
2.316% |
9.254% |
46.163% |
37.081% |
4.234% |
0.374% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.961% |
32.513% |
44.479% |
8.305% |
0.742% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
10.515% |
59.303% |
29.243% |
0.653% |
0.009% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.863% |
28.116% |
68.820% |
0.201% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.042% |
0.754% |
62.703% |
36.501% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
36.443% |
63.490% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.567% |
49.433% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.433% |
49.558% |
1.009% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.009% |
98.991% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
94.572% |
5.428% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
5.428% |
94.572% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.345% |
11.377% |
|
96.722% |
|
3.161% |
0.117% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.142% |
44.829% |
|
52.971% |
|
37.086% |
9.943% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.503% |
43.146% |
|
49.649% |
|
48.607% |
1.744% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.648% |
|
0.658% |
|
11.146% |
69.778% |
15.080% |
3.338% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15.141% |
40.680% |
35.371% |
8.048% |
0.760% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.277% |
43.683% |
44.704% |
7.638% |
0.698% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.557% |
12.888% |
56.558% |
29.310% |
0.674% |
0.013% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.699% |
27.719% |
68.397% |
0.185% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.037% |
0.757% |
62.651% |
36.555% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.078% |
36.490% |
63.432% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.504% |
49.496% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.496% |
49.506% |
0.998% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.998% |
99.002% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.102% |
17.898% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.898% |
82.102% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.638% |
11.285% |
|
96.923% |
|
2.970% |
0.107% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.057% |
44.968% |
|
53.025% |
|
36.855% |
9.658% |
0.462% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.293% |
42.807% |
|
49.100% |
|
46.824% |
3.431% |
0.645% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.649% |
|
0.661% |
|
11.254% |
62.278% |
20.297% |
5.510% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.291% |
|
0.291% |
|
2.097% |
11.146% |
49.863% |
35.025% |
1.578% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.380% |
28.733% |
48.422% |
8.624% |
0.841% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.057% |
60.990% |
29.311% |
0.625% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.986% |
28.777% |
69.037% |
0.200% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.031% |
0.745% |
62.586% |
36.638% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.066% |
36.589% |
63.345% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.408% |
49.592% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.592% |
49.462% |
0.946% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.946% |
99.054% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
63.638% |
35.400% |
0.962% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
36.299% |
63.701% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
0.063% |
0.899% |
84.633% |
11.280% |
|
96.875% |
|
3.016% |
0.109% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.050% |
44.427% |
|
52.477% |
|
35.582% |
10.225% |
1.716% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.354% |
41.773% |
|
48.127% |
|
43.389% |
7.388% |
1.096% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.670% |
|
0.671% |
|
10.714% |
50.268% |
29.929% |
8.418% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
1.850% |
|
1.850% |
|
7.299% |
20.114% |
48.748% |
21.989% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11.896% |
18.511% |
59.998% |
8.759% |
0.836% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.516% |
62.474% |
29.306% |
0.684% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.079% |
28.735% |
69.007% |
0.179% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.032% |
0.778% |
62.602% |
36.588% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.073% |
36.535% |
63.392% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.462% |
49.538% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.538% |
49.537% |
0.925% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.925% |
99.075% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
37.5 |
39.40 |
0.71 |
1.19 |
81 |
19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.5 |
38.74 |
0.57 |
1.81 |
19 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.09 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
34.0 |
35.17 |
0.59 |
4.37 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
56 |
37 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
34.0 |
35.00 |
0.61 |
4.60 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
38 |
56 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
33.69 |
0.59 |
6.18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
75 |
18 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
31.5 |
32.85 |
0.74 |
7.21 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
53 |
29 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.5 |
32.40 |
0.60 |
7.66 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
28 |
57 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
9.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
71 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
29.5 |
30.58 |
0.60 |
9.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
75 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.58 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
40 |
0 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
60 |
0 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.34 |
0.60 |
15.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
15.67 |
0.57 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 13:17 |
462 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-27 14:44 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 16:11 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:37 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 19:04 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:31 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 21:57 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:24 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 00:51 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:18 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 03:44 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 05:11 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:38 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 08:05 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:31 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 10:58 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:25 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 13:51 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:18 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |