For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.011% |
17.989% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.989% |
82.011% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.626% |
11.222% |
|
96.848% |
|
3.043% |
0.109% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.045% |
45.263% |
|
53.308% |
|
36.714% |
9.599% |
0.379% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.324% |
42.585% |
|
48.909% |
|
47.133% |
3.340% |
0.618% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.655% |
|
0.660% |
|
11.061% |
62.031% |
20.555% |
5.693% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.275% |
|
0.275% |
|
2.049% |
11.399% |
49.510% |
35.161% |
1.606% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.522% |
28.938% |
48.051% |
8.631% |
0.858% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.116% |
60.799% |
29.386% |
0.685% |
0.014% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.979% |
28.914% |
68.904% |
0.203% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.050% |
0.777% |
62.635% |
36.538% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.075% |
36.477% |
63.448% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.419% |
49.581% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.581% |
49.438% |
0.981% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.981% |
99.019% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1-0
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.539% |
17.461% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.461% |
82.539% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.543% |
11.235% |
|
96.778% |
|
3.099% |
0.123% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.056% |
45.070% |
|
53.126% |
|
36.856% |
9.608% |
0.410% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.394% |
42.704% |
|
49.098% |
|
46.821% |
3.476% |
0.605% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.650% |
|
0.657% |
|
11.069% |
62.213% |
20.549% |
5.512% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.341% |
|
0.341% |
|
2.155% |
11.148% |
49.604% |
33.357% |
3.395% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.432% |
28.832% |
42.748% |
13.585% |
1.403% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.956% |
68.497% |
14.547% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.427% |
14.523% |
84.050% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
51.604% |
48.396% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48.396% |
51.604% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.690% |
49.310% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.310% |
49.713% |
0.977% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.977% |
99.023% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 1/2-1/2
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
82.110% |
17.890% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
17.890% |
82.110% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.513% |
11.202% |
|
96.715% |
|
3.153% |
0.132% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.180% |
45.115% |
|
53.295% |
|
36.658% |
9.637% |
0.410% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.302% |
42.691% |
|
48.993% |
|
46.963% |
3.361% |
0.683% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.678% |
|
0.683% |
|
11.182% |
62.228% |
20.205% |
5.702% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.314% |
|
0.314% |
|
2.044% |
11.246% |
49.898% |
36.498% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.396% |
28.804% |
51.707% |
5.439% |
0.654% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.944% |
64.514% |
31.542% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.149% |
30.047% |
67.804% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68.255% |
31.745% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.745% |
68.255% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.761% |
49.239% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.239% |
49.771% |
0.990% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.990% |
99.010% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Speculate Laser 1.8_beta_256th – Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 0-1
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
|
13-16. |
|
13. |
14. |
15. |
16. |
1. |
Ethereal 11.88 |
|
81.919% |
18.081% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Fire 021819 |
|
18.081% |
81.919% |
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
|
|
|
85.718% |
11.225% |
|
96.943% |
|
2.928% |
0.129% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
rofChade 2.213 |
|
|
|
8.032% |
45.091% |
|
53.123% |
|
36.788% |
9.677% |
0.412% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
6.246% |
42.681% |
|
48.927% |
|
46.978% |
3.439% |
0.656% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.683% |
|
0.687% |
|
11.214% |
62.236% |
20.359% |
5.504% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7. |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
|
|
|
|
0.320% |
|
0.320% |
|
2.092% |
11.236% |
49.941% |
36.411% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8. |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.283% |
28.632% |
55.254% |
2.831% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9. |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.831% |
51.767% |
44.727% |
0.675% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10. |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45.261% |
52.256% |
2.416% |
0.067% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.141% |
2.720% |
82.101% |
15.038% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12. |
Pedone 20200125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.297% |
14.808% |
84.895% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13. |
Winter 0.7.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
50.467% |
49.533% |
|
|
14. |
Nemorino 5.28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
49.533% |
49.511% |
0.956% |
|
15. |
PeSTO 2.211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
0.956% |
99.044% |
|
16. |
Fizbo 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 |
38.0 |
39.27 |
0.58 |
1.22 |
78 |
22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Fire 021819 |
37.5 |
38.75 |
0.57 |
1.78 |
22 |
78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 |
34.5 |
36.48 |
0.70 |
3.09 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 |
34.0 |
35.17 |
0.59 |
4.36 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
56 |
37 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 |
34.0 |
34.99 |
0.61 |
4.60 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
38 |
57 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev |
32.5 |
33.69 |
0.59 |
6.19 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
74 |
19 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
32.0 |
32.97 |
0.61 |
7.15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
58 |
26 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
31.5 |
32.40 |
0.60 |
7.71 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
24 |
61 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
29.5 |
31.33 |
0.72 |
9.07 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
73 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c |
29.5 |
30.58 |
0.60 |
9.83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
27.0 |
28.18 |
0.73 |
11.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
75 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 |
26.5 |
27.59 |
0.71 |
11.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
20.5 |
21.92 |
0.72 |
13.40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
40 |
0 |
14 |
Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 |
20.5 |
21.66 |
0.72 |
13.60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
60 |
0 |
15 |
PeSTO 2.210/2.211 |
18.5 |
19.34 |
0.60 |
15.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
16 |
Fizbo 2 |
15.0 |
15.67 |
0.56 |
16.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-02-27 15:04 |
463 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-27 16:30 |
464 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-27 17:57 |
465 |
Winter 0.7.4 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
2020-02-27 19:24 |
466 |
Nemorino 5.28 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
2020-02-27 20:51 |
467 |
Pedone 20200125 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
2020-02-27 22:17 |
468 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
2020-02-27 23:44 |
469 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
2020-02-28 01:11 |
470 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
2020-02-28 02:38 |
471 |
Fire 021819 |
Fizbo 2 |
2020-02-28 04:04 |
472 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
rofChade 2.213 |
2020-02-28 05:31 |
473 |
PeSTO 2.211 |
Arasan 22.0_f928f5c |
2020-02-28 06:58 |
474 |
rofChade 2.213 |
Fire 021819 |
2020-02-28 08:25 |
475 |
Fizbo 2 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev |
2020-02-28 09:52 |
476 |
Andscacs 0.95123 |
RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 |
2020-02-28 11:18 |
477 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 |
2020-02-28 12:45 |
478 |
Ethereal 11.88 |
Pedone 20200125 |
2020-02-28 14:12 |
479 |
Laser 1.8_beta_256th |
Nemorino 5.28 |
2020-02-28 15:39 |
480 |
KomodoMCTS 2484.00 |
Winter 0.7.4 |