For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 82.114% 17.886% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 17.886% 82.114% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 84.163% 13.940% 98.103% 1.897%
4. rofChade 2.213 8.572% 44.032% 52.604% 37.348% 9.623% 0.425%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 7.265% 41.109% 48.374% 47.610% 3.380% 0.636%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.574% 0.574% 11.096% 62.318% 20.376% 5.636%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.345% 0.345% 2.049% 11.267% 49.809% 36.530%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 13.412% 28.754% 54.965% 2.869%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 66.987% 33.013%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 2.869% 30.144% 66.987%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 60.189% 39.811%
12. Pedone 20200125 39.811% 60.189%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.764% 10.236%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.236% 89.764%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Ethereal 11.88 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 59.049% 40.951% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 40.951% 59.049% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 84.229% 13.801% 98.030% 1.970%
4. rofChade 2.213 8.586% 44.415% 53.001% 36.917% 9.664% 0.418%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 7.185% 40.909% 48.094% 47.710% 3.544% 0.652%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.547% 0.547% 11.258% 62.308% 20.266% 5.621%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.328% 0.328% 2.145% 11.257% 49.916% 36.354%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 13.227% 28.748% 55.237% 2.788%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 67.188% 32.812%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 2.788% 30.024% 67.188%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 90.035% 9.965%
12. Pedone 20200125 9.965% 90.035%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.550% 10.450%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.450% 89.550%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Ethereal 11.88 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 84.976% 15.024% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 15.024% 84.976% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 84.307% 13.851% 98.158% 1.842%
4. rofChade 2.213 8.436% 44.111% 52.547% 37.307% 9.711% 0.435%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 7.257% 41.111% 48.368% 47.531% 3.411% 0.690%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.597% 0.597% 11.230% 62.159% 20.437% 5.577%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.330% 0.330% 2.090% 11.284% 49.525% 36.771%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 13.435% 28.913% 54.859% 2.793%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 66.957% 33.043%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 2.793% 30.250% 66.957%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 73.385% 26.615%
12. Pedone 20200125 26.615% 73.385%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.735% 10.265%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.265% 89.735%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 – Ethereal 11.88 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 95.399% 4.601% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 4.601% 95.399% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 84.441% 13.694% 98.135% 1.865%
4. rofChade 2.213 8.350% 44.166% 52.516% 37.311% 9.756% 0.417%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 7.209% 41.278% 48.487% 47.523% 3.309% 0.681%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 0.573% 0.573% 11.258% 62.253% 20.397% 5.519%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 0.289% 0.289% 2.043% 11.348% 49.738% 36.582%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 13.334% 28.767% 55.128% 2.771%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 66.966% 33.034%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 2.771% 30.263% 66.966%
11. Pedone 20200125 67.144% 32.856%
12. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 32.856% 67.144%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.692% 10.308%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.308% 89.692%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 38.0 39.26 0.58 1.22 78 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Fire 021819 37.5 38.74 0.57 1.78 22 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 35.5 36.20 0.39 3.07 0 0 94 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 34.0 35.17 0.59 4.37 0 0 4 56 38 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 34.0 35.00 0.61 4.61 0 0 2 38 57 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 32.5 33.69 0.59 6.19 0 0 0 0 4 74 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 32.0 32.98 0.61 7.14 0 0 0 0 0 14 58 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Andscacs 0.95123 31.5 32.40 0.60 7.62 0 0 0 0 0 7 24 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Laser 1.8_beta_256th 30.5 31.17 0.40 9.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 15 0 0 0 0 0
10 Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c 29.5 30.57 0.60 9.85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 85 0 0 0 0 0
11 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 27.5 28.28 0.59 11.19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 19 0 0 0
12 Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 27.5 27.81 0.40 11.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 81 0 0 0
13 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 21.5 21.83 0.40 13.12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 12 0
14 Winter 0.7.4 21.0 21.30 0.39 13.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 88 0
15 PeSTO 2.210/2.211 19.5 19.92 0.42 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
16 Fizbo 2 15.0 15.67 0.56 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-02-27 23:14 469 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-02-28 00:41 470 Defenchess 2.3_dev Andscacs 0.95123
2020-02-28 02:07 471 Fire 021819 Fizbo 2
2020-02-28 03:34 472 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c rofChade 2.213
2020-02-28 05:01 473 PeSTO 2.211 Arasan 22.0_f928f5c
2020-02-28 06:28 474 rofChade 2.213 Fire 021819
2020-02-28 07:54 475 Fizbo 2 Defenchess 2.3_dev
2020-02-28 09:21 476 Andscacs 0.95123 RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649
2020-02-28 10:48 477 Xiphos 0.6.1 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17
2020-02-28 12:14 478 Ethereal 11.88 Pedone 20200125
2020-02-28 13:41 479 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-28 15:08 480 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Winter 0.7.4