Feb 28 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 100.000% 100.000%
4. rofChade 2.213 100.000% 100.000%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 100.000%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 100.000%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 100.000%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 78.762% 21.238%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 21.238% 78.762%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 57.834% 42.166%
12. Pedone 20200125 42.166% 57.834%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.559% 10.441%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.441% 89.559%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Pedone 20200125 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 100.000% 100.000%
4. rofChade 2.213 100.000% 100.000%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 100.000%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 100.000%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 100.000%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 78.585% 21.415%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 21.415% 78.585%
11. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000%
12. Pedone 20200125 100.000%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.835% 10.165%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.165% 89.835%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Pedone 20200125 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 100.000% 100.000%
4. rofChade 2.213 100.000% 100.000%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 100.000%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 100.000%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 100.000%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 78.813% 21.187%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 21.187% 78.813%
11. Pedone 20200125 100.000%
12. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.612% 10.388%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.388% 89.612%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Speculate Ethereal 11.88 – Pedone 20200125 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13-16. 13. 14. 15. 16.
1. Ethereal 11.88 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
3. KomodoMCTS 2484.00 100.000% 100.000%
4. rofChade 2.213 100.000% 100.000%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 100.000%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev 100.000%
7. RubiChess 1.7-dev_20200124193649 100.000%
8. Andscacs 0.95123 100.000%
9. Laser 1.8_beta_256th 78.700% 21.300%
10. Arasan 22.0_f928f5c 21.300% 78.700%
11. Pedone 20200125 100.000%
12. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 100.000%
13. Nemorino 5.28 100.000% 89.689% 10.311%
14. Winter 0.7.4 100.000% 10.311% 89.689%
15. PeSTO 2.211 100.000% 100.000%
16. Fizbo 2 100.000% 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88 39.0 39.69 0.40 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Fire 021819 39.0 39.00 0.00 2.00 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00 35.5 36.20 0.39 3.00 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Xiphos 0.6 256th/0.6.1 35.0 35.00 0.00 4.00 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213 35.0 35.00 0.00 5.00 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Defenchess 2.2_dev/2.3_dev 34.0 34.00 0.00 6.00 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 RubiChess 1.7-dev2/1.6.1.1/1.7-dev_20200124193649 33.0 33.00 0.00 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Andscacs 0.95123 32.5 32.50 0.00 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Laser 1.8_beta_256th 30.5 31.17 0.40 9.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 Arasan 22.0_005f8a1/22.0_f928f5c 30.5 30.50 0.00 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0
11 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 28.0 28.00 0.00 11.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 25 0 0 0
12 Pedone 1.9/2.0/20200125 27.5 27.81 0.40 11.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 75 0 0 0
13 Nemorino 5.26_256th/5.27/5.28 21.5 21.83 0.40 13.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87 13 0
14 Winter 0.7.4 21.0 21.30 0.39 13.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 87 0
15 PeSTO 2.210/2.211 20.0 20.00 0.00 15.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
16 Fizbo 2 15.0 15.00 0.00 16.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.44h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-02-28 13:38 479 Laser 1.8_beta_256th Nemorino 5.28
2020-02-28 15:05 480 KomodoMCTS 2484.00 Winter 0.7.4
Posted inBayesElo