For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 34.314% 26.490% 20.726% 12.690% 94.220% 5.153% 0.627%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 26.037% 25.980% 24.013% 15.836% 91.866% 7.080% 1.054%
3. Ethereal 12.00 24.202% 26.876% 23.884% 16.265% 91.227% 7.777% 0.996%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 12.205% 12.584% 15.305% 22.410% 62.504% 26.675% 10.821%
5. rofChade 2.214 2.894% 7.188% 14.236% 27.941% 52.259% 39.053% 8.688%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.348% 0.882% 1.836% 4.858% 7.924% 14.262% 77.814%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – Fire 021819 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 36.753% 27.821% 19.831% 11.007% 95.412% 4.147% 0.441%
2. Ethereal 12.00 25.049% 26.048% 23.799% 16.274% 91.170% 7.883% 0.947%
3. Fire 021819 22.795% 25.905% 25.141% 17.289% 91.130% 7.839% 1.031%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 12.086% 12.455% 15.488% 22.627% 62.656% 26.614% 10.730%
5. rofChade 2.214 2.916% 6.987% 13.876% 27.987% 51.766% 39.334% 8.900%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.401% 0.784% 1.865% 4.816% 7.866% 14.183% 77.951%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 34.324% 26.996% 20.729% 12.402% 94.451% 4.952% 0.597%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 24.838% 26.504% 24.716% 16.119% 92.177% 6.920% 0.903%
3. Ethereal 12.00 25.054% 26.155% 23.602% 16.177% 90.988% 7.968% 1.044%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 12.458% 12.421% 15.087% 22.617% 62.583% 26.820% 10.597%
5. rofChade 2.214 3.006% 7.040% 14.010% 27.903% 51.959% 39.324% 8.717%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.320% 0.884% 1.856% 4.782% 7.842% 14.016% 78.142%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – Fire 021819 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 46.932% 26.794% 15.557% 7.749% 97.032% 2.688% 0.280%
2. Ethereal 12.00 23.160% 27.970% 23.975% 16.249% 91.354% 7.670% 0.976%
3. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 14.917% 24.124% 28.089% 20.911% 88.041% 10.383% 1.576%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 11.936% 12.886% 15.897% 22.467% 63.186% 26.370% 10.444%
5. rofChade 2.214 2.725% 7.403% 14.571% 27.712% 52.411% 38.944% 8.645%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.330% 0.823% 1.911% 4.912% 7.976% 13.945% 78.079%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5
1 Fire 021819 3.0 12.09 1.80 2.24 36 27 21 12 5
2 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00 3.0 11.65 1.78 2.54 26 26 24 16 7
3 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00 2.5 11.63 1.77 2.55 24 28 24 16 7
4 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 2.5 9.83 2.37 3.73 11 12 16 23 28
5 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213/2.214 1.0 9.15 1.79 4.24 2 6 13 29 40
6 ChessFighter 3.2 1.0 5.65 2.10 5.69 0 1 2 4 13

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.11h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-03-08 04:19 15 rofChade 2.214 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-08 06:25 16 ChessFighter 3.2 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-08 08:31 17 rofChade 2.214 Fire 021819
2020-03-08 10:38 18 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-08 12:44 19 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-08 14:51 20 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-08 16:57 21 Fire 021819 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-08 19:03 22 ChessFighter 3.2 Fire 021819
2020-03-08 21:10 23 Ethereal 12.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-08 23:16 24 rofChade 2.214 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-09 01:22 25 rofChade 2.214 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-09 03:29 26 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-09 05:35 27 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 Fire 021819
2020-03-09 07:41 28 ChessFighter 3.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-09 09:48 29 Fire 021819 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-09 11:54 30 Ethereal 12.00 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-09 14:01 31 Ethereal 12.00 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-09 16:07 32 Fire 021819 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-09 18:13 33 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-09 20:20 34 ChessFighter 3.2 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-09 22:26 35 rofChade 2.214 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-10 00:32 36 Ethereal 12.00 Fire 021819
2020-03-10 02:39 37 Fire 021819 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-10 04:45 38 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-10 06:52 39 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-10 08:58 40 ChessFighter 3.2 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-10 11:04 41 Ethereal 12.00 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-10 13:11 42 Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-10 15:17 43 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-10 17:23 44 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 Fire 021819
2020-03-10 19:30 45 rofChade 2.214 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-10 21:36 46 ChessFighter 3.2 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-10 23:43 47 rofChade 2.214 Fire 021819
2020-03-11 01:49 48 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-11 03:55 49 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-11 06:02 50 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-11 08:08 51 Fire 021819 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-11 10:14 52 ChessFighter 3.2 Fire 021819
2020-03-11 12:21 53 Ethereal 12.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-11 14:27 54 rofChade 2.214 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-11 16:33 55 rofChade 2.214 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-11 18:40 56 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-11 20:46 57 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 Fire 021819
2020-03-11 22:53 58 ChessFighter 3.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-12 00:59 59 Fire 021819 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-12 03:05 60 Ethereal 12.00 rofChade 2.214