For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 64.932% 31.821% 3.179% 0.068% 100.000%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 34.679% 61.436% 3.707% 0.178% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 0.375% 5.437% 64.972% 24.287% 95.071% 4.929%
4. Ethereal 12.00 0.014% 1.300% 22.808% 49.906% 74.028% 25.965% 0.007%
5. rofChade 2.214 0.006% 5.334% 25.561% 30.901% 67.918% 1.181%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 1.188% 98.812%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – ChessFighter 3.2 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 58.734% 37.709% 3.492% 0.065% 100.000%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 41.110% 57.623% 1.267% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 0.156% 4.218% 66.751% 23.929% 95.054% 4.946%
4. Ethereal 12.00 0.450% 23.228% 50.153% 73.831% 26.169%
5. rofChade 2.214 5.262% 25.853% 31.115% 68.560% 0.325%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.325% 99.675%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – ChessFighter 3.2 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 69.903% 26.893% 3.126% 0.078% 100.000%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 29.589% 65.745% 4.565% 0.101% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 0.490% 5.835% 64.306% 24.452% 95.083% 4.917%
4. Ethereal 12.00 0.018% 1.527% 22.764% 50.341% 74.650% 25.347% 0.003%
5. rofChade 2.214 5.239% 25.028% 30.267% 68.406% 1.327%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 1.330% 98.670%

Speculate KomodoMCTS 2499.00 – ChessFighter 3.2 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6.
1. Fire 021819 79.219% 18.068% 2.640% 0.073% 100.000%
2. KomodoMCTS 2499.00 19.669% 68.548% 10.850% 0.933% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.7 1.032% 9.592% 60.388% 24.150% 95.162% 4.838%
4. Ethereal 12.00 0.080% 3.767% 21.131% 49.601% 74.579% 25.376% 0.045%
5. rofChade 2.214 0.025% 4.991% 25.232% 30.248% 65.452% 4.300%
6. ChessFighter 3.2 0.011% 0.011% 4.334% 95.655%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5
1 Fire 021819 11.0 13.31 0.85 1.31 71 28 1 0 0
2 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00 10.5 12.66 0.84 1.74 29 68 3 0 0
3 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 8.5 10.62 0.89 3.21 0 4 74 19 3
4 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00 7.5 9.57 0.85 3.99 0 0 19 62 19
5 rofChade 2.208AT_debug/2.212/2.213/2.214 6.5 8.52 0.84 4.77 0 0 3 19 78
6 ChessFighter 3.2 4.0 5.32 0.84 5.99 0 0 0 0 1

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.95h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-03-10 22:31 50 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 rofChade 2.214
2020-03-11 00:28 51 Fire 021819 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-11 02:26 52 ChessFighter 3.2 Fire 021819
2020-03-11 04:23 53 Ethereal 12.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-11 06:20 54 rofChade 2.214 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-11 08:17 55 rofChade 2.214 ChessFighter 3.2
2020-03-11 10:14 56 KomodoMCTS 2499.00 Ethereal 12.00
2020-03-11 12:12 57 ScorpioNN 3.0.7 Fire 021819
2020-03-11 14:09 58 ChessFighter 3.2 ScorpioNN 3.0.7
2020-03-11 16:06 59 Fire 021819 KomodoMCTS 2499.00
2020-03-11 18:03 60 Ethereal 12.00 rofChade 2.214