Mar 24 2020
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Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 58.434% 14.879% 73.313% 7.064% 4.326% 3.148% 2.451% 9.698% 2.243% 2.161% 2.576% 2.718%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 15.010% 38.738% 53.748% 28.975% 11.702% 3.810% 1.275% 0.490% 0.376% 0.093% 0.019% 0.002%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 16.332% 19.069% 35.401% 11.447% 7.984% 6.332% 5.717% 33.119% 5.591% 6.123% 8.913% 12.492%
4. Fire 021819 0.746% 4.923% 5.669% 13.981% 21.296% 21.051% 16.762% 21.241% 11.358% 6.301% 2.771% 0.811%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.763% 4.398% 5.161% 12.187% 18.290% 19.570% 17.427% 27.365% 13.258% 8.539% 4.229% 1.339%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.255% 2.065% 2.320% 7.391% 14.459% 19.301% 19.992% 36.537% 17.259% 11.498% 5.946% 1.834%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 2.390% 6.879% 9.269% 9.854% 10.615% 10.057% 10.081% 50.124% 10.486% 11.322% 14.479% 13.837%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.015% 0.216% 0.231% 1.133% 3.027% 6.432% 11.432% 77.745% 17.768% 23.434% 23.576% 12.967%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.007% 0.137% 0.144% 0.704% 2.194% 4.886% 9.558% 82.514% 16.139% 23.761% 26.613% 16.001%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 6.048% 8.696% 14.744% 7.264% 6.107% 5.413% 5.305% 61.167% 5.522% 6.768% 10.878% 37.999%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – Stoofvlees II a14 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 59.327% 14.221% 73.548% 6.758% 4.228% 3.163% 2.581% 9.722% 2.443% 2.293% 2.692% 2.294%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.047% 41.748% 58.795% 27.108% 9.480% 3.225% 1.045% 0.347% 0.268% 0.067% 0.012%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 16.364% 18.650% 35.014% 10.854% 7.900% 6.423% 5.826% 33.983% 5.856% 6.770% 10.180% 11.177%
4. Komodo 2503.05 1.150% 6.348% 7.498% 16.463% 22.099% 20.352% 15.808% 17.780% 10.054% 5.199% 2.097% 0.430%
5. Fire 021819 0.867% 5.400% 6.267% 15.084% 21.470% 21.189% 16.664% 19.326% 10.645% 5.739% 2.382% 0.560%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.280% 2.145% 2.425% 8.017% 14.888% 19.635% 20.522% 34.513% 17.031% 10.752% 5.284% 1.446%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 2.360% 6.552% 8.912% 9.233% 10.065% 9.627% 10.016% 52.147% 10.786% 12.398% 16.768% 12.195%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.030% 0.261% 0.291% 1.254% 3.198% 6.912% 12.307% 76.038% 19.582% 24.332% 22.402% 9.722%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.013% 0.115% 0.128% 0.753% 2.313% 5.194% 10.651% 80.961% 17.961% 25.471% 25.681% 11.848%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 2.562% 4.560% 7.122% 4.476% 4.359% 4.280% 4.580% 75.183% 5.374% 6.979% 12.502% 50.328%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – Stoofvlees II a14 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 58.677% 15.086% 73.763% 7.042% 4.285% 3.071% 2.372% 9.467% 2.124% 2.093% 2.297% 2.953%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 14.258% 38.713% 52.971% 29.477% 11.978% 3.746% 1.343% 0.485% 0.380% 0.087% 0.017% 0.001%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 16.800% 19.254% 36.054% 11.534% 8.026% 6.236% 5.618% 32.532% 5.460% 5.876% 8.061% 13.135%
4. Fire 021819 0.730% 4.707% 5.437% 14.045% 20.974% 20.890% 16.831% 21.823% 11.370% 6.613% 2.922% 0.918%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.505% 3.310% 3.815% 10.419% 17.403% 19.967% 18.383% 30.013% 14.569% 9.272% 4.684% 1.488%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.263% 1.946% 2.209% 7.413% 14.273% 18.728% 19.517% 37.860% 17.187% 12.034% 6.398% 2.241%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 2.144% 6.241% 8.385% 9.216% 10.298% 9.703% 9.619% 52.779% 9.918% 11.284% 14.676% 16.901%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.019% 0.260% 0.279% 1.195% 3.181% 6.434% 11.097% 77.814% 16.983% 22.580% 23.399% 14.852%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.006% 0.138% 0.144% 0.743% 2.163% 4.835% 9.163% 82.952% 15.784% 22.829% 26.417% 17.922%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 6.598% 10.345% 16.943% 8.916% 7.419% 6.390% 6.057% 54.275% 6.225% 7.332% 11.129% 29.589%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – Stoofvlees II a14 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 56.423% 16.886% 73.309% 7.772% 4.547% 3.075% 2.269% 9.028% 2.026% 1.908% 2.152% 2.942%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 11.395% 34.051% 45.446% 32.158% 15.628% 4.801% 1.438% 0.529% 0.398% 0.110% 0.018% 0.003%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 15.605% 19.015% 34.620% 12.572% 8.971% 6.582% 5.592% 31.663% 5.163% 5.515% 7.052% 13.933%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 13.775% 16.994% 30.769% 11.934% 8.866% 6.696% 5.606% 36.129% 5.401% 5.787% 7.635% 17.306%
5. Fire 021819 0.556% 3.811% 4.367% 12.236% 20.477% 21.510% 17.784% 23.626% 12.143% 7.065% 3.314% 1.104%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.217% 1.681% 1.898% 6.411% 13.294% 18.695% 19.977% 39.725% 17.522% 12.666% 7.027% 2.510%
7. Komodo 2503.05 0.201% 1.564% 1.765% 6.055% 12.637% 18.016% 19.125% 42.402% 17.723% 13.327% 8.099% 3.253%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 1.809% 5.688% 7.497% 9.222% 10.714% 10.306% 9.739% 52.522% 9.650% 10.620% 13.569% 18.683%
9. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.016% 0.189% 0.205% 1.001% 2.884% 5.933% 10.159% 79.818% 15.843% 21.594% 24.149% 18.232%
10. Houdini 6.03 0.003% 0.121% 0.124% 0.639% 1.982% 4.386% 8.311% 84.558% 14.131% 21.408% 26.985% 22.034%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.0 26.90 5.62 2.48 59 14 7 4 3 2 2 2 2 2
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 13.5 23.48 2.12 2.75 13 36 28 13 6 2 1 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.0 21.24 5.61 5.16 16 18 11 8 6 5 5 5 6 8
4 Fire 021819 10.5 20.12 2.14 5.48 1 4 12 18 19 17 13 9 5 2
5 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 10.0 19.92 2.28 5.70 1 4 11 16 17 16 13 10 7 4
6 LCZeroCPU v0.24_rc1-n591215/v0.24-n591215 0.0 19.40 3.14 6.28 2 7 10 12 12 11 11 10 10 9
7 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 10.0 19.15 2.11 6.50 0 2 6 11 15 17 17 14 10 6
8 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 0.5 18.57 3.61 6.95 2 6 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 14
9 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 8.5 17.33 2.11 8.36 0 0 1 2 5 9 13 17 21 20
10 Houdini 6.03 8.0 17.07 2.07 8.62 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 17 22 23
11 Stoofvlees II a14 0.0 16.81 6.01 7.72 6 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 10

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.71h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-03-24 17:54 63 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-24 20:37 64 Fire 021819 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-24 23:19 65 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Ethereal 12.01
2020-03-25 02:02 66 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-03-25 04:44 67 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Fire 021819
2020-03-25 07:27 68 Stoofvlees II a14 Houdini 6.03
2020-03-25 10:09 69 Komodo 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-25 12:52 70 Fire 021819 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-25 15:34 71 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-25 18:17 72 Ethereal 12.01 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-25 20:59 73 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-25 23:42 74 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Ethereal 12.01
2020-03-26 02:24 75 Stoofvlees II a14 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-03-26 05:07 76 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-26 07:49 77 Ethereal 12.01 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-26 10:32 78 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-26 13:14 79 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-26 15:57 80 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-26 18:39 81 Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-26 21:22 82 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-03-27 00:04 83 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-27 02:47 84 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-27 05:29 85 Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-27 08:12 86 Komodo 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-27 10:54 87 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-27 13:37 88 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Houdini 6.03
2020-03-27 16:19 89 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Komodo 2503.05
2020-03-27 19:02 90 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-03-27 21:44 91 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-03-28 00:27 92 Stoofvlees II a14 Komodo 2503.05
2020-03-28 03:09 93 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Houdini 6.03
2020-03-28 05:52 94 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Fire 021819
2020-03-28 08:34 95 Ethereal 12.01 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-28 11:17 96 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-28 13:59 97 Fire 021819 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-28 16:42 98 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-28 19:24 99 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Komodo 2503.05
2020-03-28 22:07 100 Stoofvlees II a14 Fire 021819
2020-03-29 00:49 101 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-03-29 03:32 102 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Ethereal 12.01
2020-03-29 06:14 103 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-29 08:57 104 Ethereal 12.01 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-29 11:39 105 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-29 14:22 106 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Houdini 6.03
2020-03-29 17:04 107 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.01
2020-03-29 19:47 108 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-29 22:29 109 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-30 01:12 110 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-30 03:54 111 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Fire 021819
2020-03-30 06:37 112 Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-30 09:19 113 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-30 12:02 114 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-30 14:44 115 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-03-30 17:27 116 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-03-30 20:09 117 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-03-30 22:52 118 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-31 01:34 119 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-31 04:17 120 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-31 06:59 121 Stockfish 202003092246 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-03-31 09:42 122 Komodo 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-03-31 12:24 123 Houdini 6.03 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-03-31 15:07 124 Fire 021819 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-03-31 17:49 125 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Ethereal 12.01
2020-03-31 20:32 126 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-03-31 23:14 127 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Fire 021819
2020-04-01 01:57 128 Stoofvlees II a14 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-01 04:39 129 Komodo 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-01 07:22 130 Fire 021819 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-01 10:04 131 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-01 12:47 132 Ethereal 12.01 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-01 15:29 133 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-01 18:12 134 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-01 20:54 135 Stoofvlees II a14 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-01 23:37 136 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-02 02:19 137 Ethereal 12.01 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-02 05:02 138 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-02 07:44 139 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-02 10:27 140 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-02 13:09 141 Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-02 15:52 142 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-02 18:34 143 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-02 21:17 144 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-02 23:59 145 Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-03 02:42 146 Komodo 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-03 05:24 147 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-03 08:07 148 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-03 10:49 149 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-03 13:32 150 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-03 16:14 151 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-03 18:57 152 Stoofvlees II a14 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-03 21:39 153 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-04 00:22 154 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Fire 021819
2020-04-04 03:04 155 Ethereal 12.01 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-04 05:47 156 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-04 08:29 157 Fire 021819 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-04 11:12 158 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-04 13:54 159 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-04 16:37 160 Stoofvlees II a14 Fire 021819
2020-04-04 19:19 161 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-04 22:02 162 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-05 00:44 163 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-05 03:27 164 Ethereal 12.01 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-05 06:09 165 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-05 08:52 166 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-05 11:34 167 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-05 14:17 168 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-05 16:59 169 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-05 19:42 170 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-05 22:24 171 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Fire 021819
2020-04-06 01:07 172 Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-06 03:49 173 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-06 06:32 174 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 09:14 175 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-06 11:57 176 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-06 14:39 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-06 17:22 178 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-06 20:04 179 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-06 22:47 180 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14
Posted inBayesElo