For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 54.810% 32.173% 86.983% 11.026% 1.732% 0.218% 0.036% 0.005% 0.005%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 21.527% 25.862% 47.389% 21.560% 10.823% 7.009% 5.028% 8.191% 3.423% 2.394% 1.597% 0.777%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 21.249% 24.725% 45.974% 20.828% 11.376% 7.558% 5.492% 8.772% 3.755% 2.552% 1.672% 0.793%
4. Fire 021819 0.371% 6.389% 6.760% 17.893% 26.832% 21.446% 14.353% 12.716% 7.986% 3.476% 1.062% 0.192%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.158% 3.599% 3.757% 10.750% 18.307% 22.291% 20.299% 24.596% 13.794% 7.241% 2.842% 0.719%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.039% 1.558% 1.597% 5.801% 11.884% 17.142% 20.350% 43.226% 19.507% 13.486% 7.618% 2.615%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 1.754% 4.888% 6.642% 9.237% 12.190% 11.378% 11.331% 49.222% 11.439% 11.461% 13.052% 13.270%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.002% 0.161% 0.163% 0.899% 2.611% 5.573% 10.460% 80.294% 17.653% 24.114% 23.787% 14.740%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.025% 0.025% 0.203% 0.928% 2.732% 6.377% 89.735% 13.169% 22.446% 30.218% 23.902%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.090% 0.620% 0.710% 1.803% 3.317% 4.653% 6.274% 83.243% 9.269% 12.830% 18.152% 42.992%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 21.022%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 18.975%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 15.779%
4. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 15.039%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 5.806%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 5.240%
7. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.393%
8. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 3.476%
9. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 3.367%
10. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.477%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 36.061%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 34.754%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 9.633%
4. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 5.988%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 4.512%
6. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 3.423%
7. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.493%
8. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 1.044%
9. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14 1.006%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stockfish 202003092246 0.576%

Speculate ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 – Ethereal 12.01 1-0

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 52.215% 33.326% 85.541% 12.312% 1.868% 0.255% 0.021% 0.003% 0.003%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 24.440% 26.722% 51.162% 21.378% 10.514% 6.306% 4.095% 6.545% 2.676% 1.823% 1.283% 0.763%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 20.930% 24.262% 45.192% 21.860% 11.900% 7.714% 5.020% 8.314% 3.529% 2.376% 1.530% 0.879%
4. Fire 021819 0.335% 5.714% 6.049% 17.947% 27.719% 21.929% 14.038% 12.318% 7.468% 3.410% 1.210% 0.230%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.169% 3.348% 3.517% 10.726% 19.118% 23.062% 20.075% 23.502% 12.723% 6.950% 3.005% 0.824%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 1.742% 4.948% 6.690% 9.296% 12.778% 12.192% 11.806% 47.238% 10.801% 10.535% 11.436% 14.466%
7. Ethereal 12.01 0.005% 0.494% 0.499% 2.463% 6.867% 12.602% 18.402% 59.167% 22.002% 19.109% 12.599% 5.457%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.006% 0.151% 0.157% 0.877% 2.728% 5.902% 10.746% 79.590% 16.801% 21.944% 23.599% 17.246%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.030% 0.030% 0.201% 1.067% 2.871% 6.681% 89.150% 12.597% 20.208% 28.117% 28.228%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.158% 1.005% 1.163% 2.940% 5.441% 7.167% 9.116% 74.173% 11.400% 13.645% 17.221% 31.907%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 21.384%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.763%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 16.912%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 15.029%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 6.032%
6. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 5.152%
7. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.872%
8. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 3.394%
9. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 3.096%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202003092246 1.051%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 38.296%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 32.792%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 10.904%
4. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 5.302%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 4.445%
6. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 3.173%
7. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14 1.214%
8. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 0.957%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stockfish 202003092246 0.879%
10. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 0.483%

Speculate ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 – Ethereal 12.01 1/2-1/2

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 52.445% 33.163% 85.608% 12.329% 1.790% 0.235% 0.034% 0.004% 0.004%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 23.934% 26.641% 50.575% 21.750% 10.384% 6.295% 4.153% 6.843% 2.954% 1.995% 1.249% 0.645%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 21.280% 24.460% 45.740% 21.494% 11.657% 7.483% 5.144% 8.482% 3.643% 2.553% 1.539% 0.747%
4. Fire 021819 0.360% 5.789% 6.149% 17.346% 27.464% 21.868% 14.342% 12.831% 8.041% 3.515% 1.084% 0.191%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.166% 3.313% 3.479% 10.413% 18.378% 22.513% 20.550% 24.667% 13.548% 7.356% 3.043% 0.720%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.020% 1.151% 1.171% 4.922% 11.520% 17.595% 22.014% 42.778% 21.116% 13.273% 6.571% 1.818%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 1.735% 4.880% 6.615% 9.157% 12.367% 11.745% 11.242% 48.874% 11.319% 11.622% 12.824% 13.109%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.136% 0.136% 0.836% 2.535% 5.482% 10.170% 80.841% 17.350% 24.571% 23.769% 15.151%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.015% 0.015% 0.201% 0.949% 2.550% 6.125% 90.160% 12.935% 22.225% 30.910% 24.090%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.060% 0.452% 0.512% 1.552% 2.956% 4.234% 6.226% 84.520% 9.090% 12.890% 19.011% 43.529%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 21.225%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 18.014%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 16.566%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 15.313%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 5.991%
6. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 5.177%
7. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.923%
8. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 3.381%
9. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 3.032%
10. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.106%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 37.791%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 33.327%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 10.914%
4. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 5.322%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 4.397%
6. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 3.107%
7. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14 1.153%
8. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.113%
9. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 0.993%
10. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Fire 021819 0.452%

Speculate ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 – Ethereal 12.01 0-1

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 52.561% 33.056% 85.617% 12.243% 1.868% 0.238% 0.032% 0.002% 0.001% 0.001%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 24.160% 26.529% 50.689% 20.947% 10.016% 6.425% 4.790% 7.133% 3.336% 2.042% 1.288% 0.467%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 20.996% 24.246% 45.242% 21.033% 11.246% 7.754% 5.719% 9.006% 4.129% 2.658% 1.537% 0.682%
4. Fire 021819 0.348% 5.458% 5.806% 16.460% 26.094% 21.826% 15.928% 13.886% 9.135% 3.546% 1.048% 0.157%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.133% 3.164% 3.297% 9.875% 17.130% 21.452% 21.777% 26.469% 15.591% 7.595% 2.728% 0.555%
6. Ethereal 12.01 0.100% 2.537% 2.637% 8.958% 17.247% 21.632% 21.641% 27.885% 16.893% 8.012% 2.607% 0.373%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 1.679% 4.653% 6.332% 8.900% 11.898% 11.260% 11.078% 50.532% 12.309% 12.473% 14.235% 11.515%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.002% 0.141% 0.143% 0.709% 2.191% 4.834% 9.650% 82.473% 18.520% 27.201% 24.305% 12.447%
9. Houdini 6.03 0.015% 0.015% 0.186% 0.771% 2.203% 5.566% 91.259% 13.187% 24.902% 33.489% 19.681%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.021% 0.201% 0.222% 0.689% 1.539% 2.376% 3.819% 91.355% 6.899% 11.570% 18.763% 54.123%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 21.268%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.677%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 16.701%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 15.085%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 6.076%
6. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.844%
7. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 4.842%
8. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 3.181%
9. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 2.897%
10. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 2.393%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 37.969%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 32.762%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 10.920%
4. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 4.991%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14 4.192%
6. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 2.953%
7. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 2.428%
8. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14 1.079%
9. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 0.996%
10. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Fire 021819 0.445%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 18.0 21.74 1.15 1.58 56 32 11 1 0 0 0 0 0
2 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 11.0 20.37 2.04 2.87 24 28 22 10 6 4 3 2 1
3 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 10.5 20.04 2.03 3.17 18 26 24 12 7 5 3 2 1
4 Fire 021819 15.0 18.45 1.14 4.58 0 5 18 29 22 14 7 3 1
5 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 14.5 17.97 1.18 5.22 0 3 11 20 24 20 13 6 2
6 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 13.5 17.24 1.22 6.31 0 1 4 10 16 22 21 15 8
7 Stoofvlees II a14 9.0 17.10 2.05 6.46 1 4 8 11 11 12 13 12 13
8 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 12.5 16.14 1.23 7.88 0 0 1 2 5 10 18 25 24
9 Houdini 6.03 12.5 15.79 1.13 8.36 0 0 0 1 3 6 14 24 31
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 7.5 15.17 1.93 8.57 0 0 1 3 4 6 9 12 18

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.87h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-01 16:36 126 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-01 19:28 127 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Fire 021819
2020-04-01 22:21 128 Stoofvlees II a14 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-02 01:13 129 Komodo 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-02 04:05 130 Fire 021819 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-02 06:57 131 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-02 09:49 132 Ethereal 12.01 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-02 12:41 133 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-02 15:33 134 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-02 18:26 135 Stoofvlees II a14 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-02 21:18 136 Houdini 6.03 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-03 00:10 137 Ethereal 12.01 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-03 03:02 138 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-03 05:54 139 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-03 08:46 140 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-03 11:38 141 Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-03 14:30 142 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-03 17:23 143 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-03 20:15 144 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-03 23:07 145 Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-04 01:59 146 Komodo 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-04 04:51 147 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-04 07:43 148 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-04 10:35 149 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-04 13:28 150 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-04 16:20 151 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-04 19:12 152 Stoofvlees II a14 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-04 22:04 153 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-05 00:56 154 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Fire 021819
2020-04-05 03:48 155 Ethereal 12.01 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-05 06:40 156 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-05 09:32 157 Fire 021819 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-05 12:25 158 Houdini 6.03 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-05 15:17 159 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-05 18:09 160 Stoofvlees II a14 Fire 021819
2020-04-05 21:01 161 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-05 23:53 162 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-06 02:45 163 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 05:37 164 Ethereal 12.01 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-06 08:30 165 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-06 11:22 166 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-06 14:14 167 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-06 17:06 168 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-06 19:58 169 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 22:50 170 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-07 01:42 171 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Fire 021819
2020-04-07 04:34 172 Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-07 07:27 173 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-07 10:19 174 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-07 13:11 175 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-07 16:03 176 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-07 18:55 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-07 21:47 178 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-08 00:39 179 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-08 03:32 180 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14