Apr 05 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 62.463% 35.916% 98.379% 1.621%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 36.971% 60.963% 97.934% 2.066%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.566% 3.121% 3.687% 90.152% 4.335% 1.552% 0.258% 0.016% 0.016%
4. Ethereal 12.01 2.546% 47.494% 23.309% 14.151% 12.500% 12.314% 0.186%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.703% 22.893% 49.571% 16.340% 8.493% 8.354% 0.139%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.912% 24.687% 17.211% 21.538% 35.652% 26.361% 8.893% 0.397% 0.001%
7. Fire 021819 0.577% 8.306% 47.380% 43.737% 43.567% 0.170%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.014% 0.050% 0.293% 99.643% 9.080% 85.346% 5.005% 0.212%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.040% 99.959% 0.308% 4.872% 51.259% 43.520%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.394% 43.339% 56.267%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 60.700%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 35.613%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.763%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.358%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.303%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.263%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 96.313%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 2.066%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 1.621%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.689% 17.901% 99.590% 0.410%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 18.051% 79.823% 97.874% 2.126%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.260% 2.276% 2.536% 91.354% 4.246% 1.577% 0.268% 0.019% 0.019%
4. Ethereal 12.01 2.540% 47.757% 23.565% 13.721% 12.417% 12.402% 0.015%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.703% 23.273% 49.428% 16.105% 8.491% 8.472% 0.019%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.867% 24.184% 17.305% 22.241% 35.403% 30.167% 4.953% 0.281% 0.002%
7. Fire 021819 0.540% 8.124% 47.605% 43.731% 43.696% 0.035%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.023% 99.977% 4.878% 83.083% 11.123% 0.893%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.037% 99.962% 0.364% 10.791% 45.410% 43.397%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.002% 1.104% 43.186% 55.708%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 79.725%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.739%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.964%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.312%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.162%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.098%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 97.464%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 2.126%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.410%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 57.300% 40.836% 98.136% 1.864%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 42.005% 55.981% 97.986% 2.014%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.695% 3.183% 3.878% 89.900% 4.345% 1.596% 0.259% 0.022% 0.022%
4. Ethereal 12.01 2.577% 47.599% 23.366% 13.970% 12.488% 12.288% 0.200%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.742% 23.179% 49.549% 16.140% 8.390% 8.260% 0.130%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.902% 24.292% 17.160% 21.581% 36.065% 26.054% 9.603% 0.405% 0.003%
7. Fire 021819 0.001% 0.585% 8.295% 47.778% 43.341% 43.221% 0.120%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.034% 0.238% 99.728% 9.894% 86.208% 3.570% 0.056%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.034% 99.966% 0.261% 3.522% 52.833% 43.350%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.217% 43.192% 56.591%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 55.643%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 40.479%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.657%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.526%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.357%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.338%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 96.122%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 2.014%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 1.864%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 56.518% 41.803% 98.321% 1.679%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 42.318% 52.800% 95.118% 4.881% 0.001%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.164% 5.391% 6.555% 87.189% 4.406% 1.564% 0.260% 0.026% 0.023% 0.003%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.003% 0.003% 2.666% 47.233% 22.287% 14.754% 13.057% 11.922% 1.135%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.003% 0.003% 2.681% 22.817% 47.855% 17.253% 9.391% 8.557% 0.834%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.903% 24.042% 15.870% 18.889% 40.296% 23.133% 16.684% 0.478% 0.001%
7. Fire 021819 1.190% 11.742% 46.209% 40.859% 39.155% 1.704%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.001% 0.310% 0.681% 2.602% 96.406% 17.097% 78.611% 0.698%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.001% 0.033% 99.965% 0.113% 1.024% 55.538% 43.290%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.005% 43.286% 56.709%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 52.222%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 41.217%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.290%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.101%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.586%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.578%
7. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 0.003%
8. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 0.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 93.439%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 4.876%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 1.679%
4. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 0.003%
5. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 0.003%

Manually selected ratings by alchemist888

Rank Name Elo + – games score
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 3600 0 0 24 60%
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 3600 0 0 81 64%
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 3600 0 0 24 58%
4 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 3500 0 0 47 53%
5 Stoofvlees II a14 3470 0 0 24 50%
6 Fire 021819 3450 0 0 124 60%
7 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 3420 0 0 182 55%
8 Houdini 6.03 3420 0 0 928 52%
9 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 3420 0 0 151 56%
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 3420 0 0 43 47%

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 66.155% 31.252% 97.407% 2.593%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 32.530% 62.928% 95.458% 4.542%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.315% 5.820% 7.135% 91.417% 1.142% 0.268% 0.038%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.536% 42.552% 22.113% 15.243% 19.556% 19.217% 0.339%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.713% 29.350% 45.577% 14.250% 10.110% 9.973% 0.137%
6. Fire 021819 1.256% 13.395% 52.555% 32.794% 32.709% 0.085%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 0.199% 25.689% 18.599% 17.637% 37.876% 29.909% 7.704% 0.262% 0.001%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.011% 0.047% 0.261% 99.681% 7.999% 86.954% 4.497% 0.231%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.016% 99.983% 0.193% 4.532% 49.327% 45.931%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.249% 45.914% 53.837%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 62.294%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 30.571%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 3.861%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.959%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.681%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.634%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 92.865%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 4.542%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 2.593%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.690% 17.571% 99.261% 0.739%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.662% 77.516% 95.178% 4.822%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.648% 4.913% 5.561% 92.985% 1.146% 0.286% 0.020% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.511% 42.266% 22.678% 15.132% 19.413% 19.390% 0.023%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.753% 29.399% 45.578% 14.427% 9.843% 9.824% 0.019%
6. Fire 021819 1.124% 12.951% 52.190% 33.735% 33.724% 0.011%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 0.190% 26.065% 18.507% 18.198% 37.040% 32.387% 4.439% 0.213% 0.001%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.020% 99.980% 4.377% 86.402% 8.596% 0.605%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.013% 99.987% 0.296% 8.559% 45.322% 45.810%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.547% 45.869% 53.584%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 77.256%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.183%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.434%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.479%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.388%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.260%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 94.439%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 4.822%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.739%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 60.132% 36.713% 96.845% 3.155%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 38.271% 57.380% 95.651% 4.349%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.597% 5.907% 7.504% 91.115% 1.096% 0.250% 0.034% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.509% 42.192% 22.699% 15.261% 19.339% 18.945% 0.394%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.694% 29.495% 45.282% 14.649% 9.880% 9.740% 0.140%
6. Fire 021819 0.001% 1.241% 13.222% 52.617% 32.919% 32.850% 0.069%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 0.177% 25.973% 18.517% 17.155% 38.178% 29.054% 8.848% 0.275% 0.001%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.003% 0.030% 0.263% 99.704% 9.240% 87.748% 2.686% 0.030%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.021% 99.979% 0.170% 2.697% 51.141% 45.971%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.104% 45.898% 53.998%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 56.612%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 35.884%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 3.520%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 2.387%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.829%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.768%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 92.496%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 4.349%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 3.155%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 51.018% 45.216% 96.234% 3.766%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 46.437% 45.973% 92.410% 7.589% 0.001%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 2.545% 8.810% 11.355% 87.222% 1.129% 0.264% 0.029% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.001% 0.001% 0.496% 41.343% 21.513% 15.902% 20.745% 18.423% 2.322%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.721% 29.017% 43.496% 15.741% 11.025% 9.969% 1.056%
6. Fire 021819 2.438% 17.148% 50.034% 30.380% 29.086% 1.294%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 0.206% 25.663% 16.915% 15.603% 41.613% 24.090% 17.184% 0.338% 0.001%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.409% 0.663% 2.683% 96.245% 18.365% 77.411% 0.469%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.008% 99.991% 0.066% 0.730% 53.147% 46.048%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.003% 46.046% 53.951%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 44.670%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 43.974%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 6.347%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 2.463%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 1.303%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 1.242%
7. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 88.644%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 7.589%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 3.766%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 0.001%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 18.0 22.20 1.16 1.40 66 28 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 20.0 21.59 0.73 1.77 31 61 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 16.0 19.74 1.17 3.10 3 11 72 8 4 2 1 0 0
4 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 17.0 17.90 0.61 4.94 0 0 5 35 31 19 9 0 0
5 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 16.5 17.78 0.73 5.27 0 0 5 29 24 20 18 3 0
6 Fire 021819 17.0 17.50 0.43 5.84 0 0 0 9 26 39 25 2 0
7 Stoofvlees II a14 14.5 17.33 1.08 6.11 0 0 4 18 14 15 26 18 3
8 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 15.0 16.33 0.73 7.79 0 0 0 0 2 4 19 62 12
9 Houdini 6.03 14.0 14.96 0.60 9.35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 55
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 12.0 14.68 1.05 9.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 30

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.87h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-06 00:24 162 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-06 03:16 163 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 06:09 164 Ethereal 12.01 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-06 09:01 165 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-06 11:53 166 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-06 14:46 167 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-06 17:38 168 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-06 20:30 169 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 23:23 170 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-07 02:15 171 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Fire 021819
2020-04-07 05:07 172 Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-07 08:00 173 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-07 10:52 174 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-07 13:44 175 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-07 16:37 176 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-07 19:29 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-07 22:21 178 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-08 01:14 179 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-08 04:06 180 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14
Posted inBayesElo