Apr 06 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.791% 17.796% 99.587% 0.413%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.937% 79.809% 97.746% 2.254%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.272% 2.394% 2.666% 91.121% 4.272% 1.648% 0.269% 0.024% 0.024%
4. Ethereal 12.01 2.544% 47.866% 23.368% 13.801% 12.421% 12.406% 0.015%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.759% 23.168% 49.602% 16.004% 8.467% 8.453% 0.014%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.001% 0.001% 0.909% 24.189% 17.343% 22.269% 35.289% 30.140% 4.802% 0.346% 0.001%
7. Fire 021819 0.505% 8.039% 47.606% 43.850% 43.814% 0.036%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.022% 99.978% 4.750% 83.291% 11.037% 0.900%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.029% 99.971% 0.412% 10.816% 45.449% 43.294%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.001% 1.026% 43.168% 55.805%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 79.703%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.630%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 2.087%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.307%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.166%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.106%
7. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 97.333%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 2.253%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.413%
4. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stoofvlees II a14 0.001%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.713% 17.251% 98.964% 1.036%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.481% 76.777% 94.258% 5.742%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.806% 5.972% 6.778% 92.349% 0.768% 0.105%
4. Komodo 2503.05 0.703% 51.241% 31.832% 9.061% 7.163% 7.155% 0.008%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.170% 30.787% 26.386% 11.736% 30.921% 25.909% 4.715% 0.294% 0.003%
6. Fire 021819 1.632% 17.731% 55.946% 24.691% 24.664% 0.027%
7. Ethereal 12.01 15.572% 23.946% 23.202% 37.280% 37.208% 0.072%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.023% 99.977% 4.668% 83.592% 10.874% 0.843%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.032% 99.968% 0.395% 10.551% 45.474% 43.548%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.001% 1.035% 43.358% 55.606%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 76.461%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 16.761%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 5.252%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.720%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.490%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.316%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 93.222%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 5.742%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 1.036%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.845% 17.878% 99.723% 0.277%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 18.025% 80.463% 98.488% 1.512%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.130% 1.659% 1.789% 93.204% 3.620% 1.200% 0.172% 0.015% 0.015%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.888% 53.813% 24.700% 12.657% 7.942% 7.936% 0.006%
5. Komodo 2503.05 3.159% 18.002% 52.686% 17.388% 8.765% 8.758% 0.007%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.960% 24.247% 15.048% 23.680% 36.065% 30.962% 4.789% 0.310% 0.004%
7. Fire 021819 0.318% 6.365% 46.058% 47.259% 47.213% 0.046%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.013% 99.987% 4.691% 83.369% 11.013% 0.914%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.032% 99.967% 0.424% 10.782% 45.475% 43.286%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.001% 1.001% 43.202% 55.796%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 80.411%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.800%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.434%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.225%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.078%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.052%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 98.211%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 1.512%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.277%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.807% 18.125% 99.932% 0.068%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 18.177% 81.546% 99.723% 0.277%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.016% 0.329% 0.345% 67.483% 20.138% 9.616% 2.255% 0.163% 0.163%
4. Ethereal 12.01 25.974% 59.464% 9.180% 4.526% 0.856% 0.856%
5. Komodo 2503.05 3.738% 9.203% 58.611% 19.279% 9.169% 9.159% 0.010%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 2.460% 11.155% 19.556% 29.789% 37.040% 31.804% 4.928% 0.306% 0.002%
7. Fire 021819 0.039% 3.035% 44.095% 52.831% 52.788% 0.043%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.018% 99.982% 4.831% 83.232% 10.950% 0.969%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.002% 0.038% 99.959% 0.398% 10.677% 45.467% 43.417%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.001% 1.110% 43.277% 55.612%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 81.539%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 18.116%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.268%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.061%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.009%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.007%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.655%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.277%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.068%

Manually selected ratings by alchemist888

Rank Name Elo + – games score
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 3600 0 0 24 60%
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 3600 0 0 81 64%
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 3600 0 0 24 58%
4 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 3500 0 0 47 53%
5 Stoofvlees II a14 3470 0 0 24 50%
6 Fire 021819 3450 0 0 124 60%
7 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 3420 0 0 182 55%
8 Houdini 6.03 3420 0 0 928 52%
9 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 3420 0 0 151 56%
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 3420 0 0 43 47%

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.772% 17.463% 99.235% 0.765%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.585% 77.564% 95.149% 4.851%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.643% 4.973% 5.616% 92.952% 1.108% 0.298% 0.024% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.547% 42.381% 22.493% 14.947% 19.632% 19.598% 0.034%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.705% 29.446% 45.374% 14.577% 9.898% 9.882% 0.016%
6. Fire 021819 1.138% 13.033% 52.387% 33.442% 33.425% 0.017%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 0.180% 25.927% 18.801% 18.033% 37.059% 32.565% 4.305% 0.189%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.018% 99.982% 4.235% 86.247% 8.834% 0.666%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.001% 0.014% 99.985% 0.293% 8.835% 45.430% 45.427%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.546% 45.547% 53.907%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 77.298%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.086%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 4.474%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.499%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.377%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.266%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 94.384%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 4.851%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.765%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 81.445% 17.019% 98.464% 1.536%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.078% 73.791% 90.869% 9.131%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 1.477% 9.190% 10.667% 89.146% 0.171% 0.016%
4. Komodo 2503.05 0.158% 51.844% 29.994% 9.840% 8.164% 8.149% 0.015%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.029% 30.732% 24.038% 12.441% 32.760% 28.102% 4.451% 0.207%
6. Fire 021819 2.268% 22.653% 55.994% 19.085% 19.073% 0.012%
7. Ethereal 12.01 14.985% 23.299% 21.678% 40.038% 39.952% 0.086%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.030% 99.970% 4.453% 86.156% 8.718% 0.643%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.017% 99.983% 0.271% 8.760% 45.110% 45.842%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.520% 45.965% 53.515%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 73.202%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 16.131%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 8.243%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.947%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.888%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.589%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 89.333%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 9.131%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 1.536%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 82.310% 17.228% 99.538% 0.462%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.421% 79.786% 97.207% 2.793%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.269% 2.986% 3.255% 95.310% 1.151% 0.266% 0.016% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Ethereal 12.01 0.201% 53.486% 23.102% 12.304% 10.907% 10.894% 0.013%
5. Komodo 2503.05 0.961% 20.378% 51.735% 16.508% 10.418% 10.400% 0.018%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.273% 24.388% 15.996% 20.203% 39.140% 34.505% 4.427% 0.208%
7. Fire 021819 0.597% 8.901% 50.930% 39.572% 39.550% 0.022%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.019% 99.981% 4.346% 86.118% 8.851% 0.666%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.020% 99.980% 0.303% 8.825% 45.116% 45.736%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.577% 45.825% 53.598%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 79.651%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.094%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 2.659%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.327%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.135%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.134%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 96.745%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 2.793%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.462%

Speculate AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 – Ethereal 12.01 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 82.166% 17.734% 99.900% 0.100%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 17.796% 81.553% 99.349% 0.651%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.038% 0.713% 0.751% 84.733% 10.471% 3.402% 0.630% 0.013% 0.013%
4. Ethereal 12.01 11.696% 71.541% 10.246% 5.049% 1.468% 1.468%
5. Komodo 2503.05 1.941% 5.333% 62.265% 18.735% 11.726% 11.712% 0.014%
6. Stoofvlees II a14 0.879% 12.614% 19.603% 26.532% 40.372% 35.620% 4.518% 0.231% 0.003%
7. Fire 021819 0.041% 4.484% 49.022% 46.453% 46.436% 0.017%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.015% 99.985% 4.463% 86.157% 8.692% 0.673%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 0.017% 99.983% 0.287% 8.741% 45.129% 45.826%
10. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 0.001% 0.553% 45.948% 53.498%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 81.539%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 17.710%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.627%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.086%
5. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.024%
6. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.014%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.249%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.651%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stockfish 202003092246 0.100%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 19.0 22.56 1.07 1.27 76 21 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 20.0 21.59 0.74 1.86 22 70 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 16.0 19.73 1.17 3.13 2 9 74 8 4 2 1 0 0
4 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 17.0 17.90 0.60 4.91 0 0 5 35 32 20 8 0 0
5 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 16.5 17.77 0.73 5.23 0 0 5 29 24 21 19 1 0
6 Fire 021819 17.0 17.50 0.43 5.80 0 0 0 9 26 41 24 0 0
7 Stoofvlees II a14 14.5 17.33 1.08 6.02 0 0 4 18 15 15 31 13 3
8 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 15.0 15.99 0.61 8.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 66 17
9 Houdini 6.03 14.0 14.96 0.60 9.32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 53
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 12.0 14.67 1.05 9.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 27

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.87h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-06 03:33 163 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 06:25 164 Ethereal 12.01 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-06 09:18 165 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-06 12:10 166 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Houdini 6.03
2020-04-06 15:02 167 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-06 17:55 168 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-06 20:47 169 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-06 23:40 170 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-04-07 02:32 171 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 Fire 021819
2020-04-07 05:25 172 Stockfish 202003092246 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-07 08:17 173 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-07 11:09 174 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1
2020-04-07 14:02 175 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-07 16:54 176 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-07 19:47 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-07 22:39 178 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-08 01:32 179 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-08 04:24 180 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14
Posted inBayesElo