Apr 07 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 93.805% 6.195% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 6.195% 93.791% 99.986% 0.014%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.014% 0.014% 98.529% 1.408% 0.049%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 71.303% 15.232% 13.465%
5. Ethereal 12.01 14.793% 72.968% 12.239%
6. Komodo 2503.05 1.457% 12.496% 11.751% 68.838% 5.458% 5.458%
7. Fire 021819 5.458% 94.542% 94.542%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 98.501% 1.499%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 1.499% 98.501%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 93.791%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 6.195%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.014%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.986%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.014%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 100.000% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 99.892% 99.892% 0.108%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.108% 0.108% 98.398% 1.448% 0.046%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 71.504% 15.221% 13.275%
5. Ethereal 12.01 14.545% 73.189% 12.266%
6. Komodo 2503.05 1.494% 12.503% 11.544% 68.923% 5.536% 5.536%
7. Fire 021819 5.536% 94.464% 94.464%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 98.579% 1.421%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 1.421% 98.579%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.892%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.108%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.892%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.108%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 100.000% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 98.472% 1.472% 0.056%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 70.944% 15.549% 13.507%
5. Ethereal 12.01 14.830% 72.728% 12.442%
6. Komodo 2503.05 1.528% 12.754% 11.667% 68.443% 5.608% 5.608%
7. Fire 021819 5.608% 94.392% 94.392%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 98.551% 1.449%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 1.449% 98.551%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 84.934% 15.066% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 15.066% 84.934% 100.000%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 98.393% 1.545% 0.062%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 70.646% 15.636% 13.718%
5. Ethereal 12.01 14.934% 72.353% 12.713%
6. Komodo 2503.05 1.607% 12.875% 11.949% 68.134% 5.435% 5.435%
7. Fire 021819 5.435% 94.565% 94.565%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 98.628% 1.372%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 1.372% 98.628%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 84.934%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 15.066%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Manually selected ratings by alchemist888

Rank Name Elo + – games score
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 3600 0 0 24 60%
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 3600 0 0 81 64%
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 3600 0 0 24 58%
4 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 3500 0 0 47 53%
5 Stoofvlees II a14 3470 0 0 24 50%
6 Fire 021819 3450 0 0 124 60%
7 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 3420 0 0 182 55%
8 Houdini 6.03 3420 0 0 928 52%
9 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 3420 0 0 151 56%
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 3420 0 0 43 47%

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 92.699% 7.301% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 7.301% 92.678% 99.979% 0.021%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.021% 0.021% 99.472% 0.501% 0.006%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 67.764% 14.965% 17.271%
5. Ethereal 12.01 22.381% 69.806% 7.813%
6. Komodo 2503.05 0.507% 9.354% 15.223% 65.052% 9.864% 9.864%
7. Fire 021819 9.864% 90.136% 90.136%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 97.169% 2.831%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 2.831% 97.169%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 92.678%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 7.301%
3. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.021%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.979%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.021%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 100.000% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 99.821% 99.821% 0.179%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.179% 0.179% 99.294% 0.520% 0.007%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 67.886% 14.775% 17.339%
5. Ethereal 12.01 22.502% 69.944% 7.554%
6. Komodo 2503.05 0.527% 9.092% 15.274% 65.115% 9.992% 9.992%
7. Fire 021819 9.992% 90.008% 90.008%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 97.159% 2.841%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 2.841% 97.159%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.821%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 0.179%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 99.821%
2. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 0.179%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 100.000% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 99.473% 0.523% 0.004%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 67.680% 14.948% 17.372%
5. Ethereal 12.01 22.527% 69.777% 7.696%
6. Komodo 2503.05 0.527% 9.270% 15.271% 64.993% 9.939% 9.939%
7. Fire 021819 9.939% 90.061% 90.061%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 97.107% 2.893%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 2.893% 97.107%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Speculate LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 – Stockfish 202003092246 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-10. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 86.048% 13.952% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 13.952% 86.048% 100.000%
3. AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 99.378% 0.612% 0.010%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 67.826% 14.955% 17.219%
5. Ethereal 12.01 22.258% 69.955% 7.787%
6. Komodo 2503.05 0.622% 9.304% 15.080% 65.046% 9.948% 9.948%
7. Fire 021819 9.948% 90.052% 90.052%
8. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 100.000% 100.000%
9. Houdini 6.03 100.000% 97.044% 2.956%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 100.000% 2.956% 97.044%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 86.048%
2. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 13.952%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 Stockfish 202003092246 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010 21.5 22.63 0.60 1.12 88 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246 20.5 21.51 0.59 1.88 12 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.6_8158ed5-n14.0/v0.5_timefix-n14.0 18.5 19.58 0.61 3.04 0 0 96 4 0 0 0 0 0
4 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 18.0 18.00 0.00 4.77 0 0 0 38 47 15 0 0 0
5 Stoofvlees II a14 17.5 17.90 0.42 5.13 0 0 0 28 30 41 0 0 0
6 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 17.0 17.90 0.61 5.29 0 0 4 30 22 21 23 0 0
7 Fire 021819 17.5 17.50 0.00 6.77 0 0 0 0 0 23 77 0 0
8 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 15.5 15.97 0.43 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0
9 Houdini 6.03 14.5 14.98 0.43 9.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
10 ScorpioNN 3.0.7/3.0.7.1 13.5 14.03 0.43 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.88h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-07 17:34 176 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-07 20:27 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.7.1 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-07 23:20 178 Houdini 6.03 AllieStein v0.5_timefix-n14.0
2020-04-08 02:12 179 Komodo 2503.05 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010
2020-04-08 05:05 180 Stockfish 202003092246 Stoofvlees II a14
Posted inBayesElo