Apr 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Separate virtual CPU only DivP

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 92.420% 92.420% 6.978% 0.348% 0.254%
3. Ethereal 12.01 1.139% 1.139% 55.125% 26.403% 16.295% 1.038%
4. Komodo 2503.05 0.274% 0.274% 16.079% 61.870% 21.071% 0.706%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 6.167% 6.167% 21.661% 8.921% 30.405% 32.846%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.157% 2.458% 31.975% 65.410%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 92.420%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 6.167%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.139%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 0.274%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 92.420%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 6.167%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.139%
4. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 0.274%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 96.884% 96.884% 1.137% 1.488% 0.491%
3. Komodo 2503.05 1.814% 1.814% 80.115% 18.071%
4. Ethereal 12.01 1.120% 1.120% 17.061% 64.184% 16.996% 0.639%
5. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.345% 56.558% 43.097%
6. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.182% 0.182% 1.687% 15.912% 25.955% 56.264%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 96.884%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 1.814%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.120%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.182%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 96.884%
2. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 1.814%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.120%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.182%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 92.462% 92.462% 7.214% 0.094% 0.230%
3. Ethereal 12.01 1.159% 1.159% 65.197% 15.045% 17.510% 1.089%
4. Komodo 2503.05 4.478% 76.603% 18.919%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 6.379% 6.379% 22.910% 6.454% 33.090% 31.167%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.201% 1.804% 30.251% 67.744%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 92.462%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 6.379%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.159%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 92.462%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 6.379%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.159%

Speculate Komodo 2503.05 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 100.000% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 81.008% 81.008% 18.181% 0.811%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 17.390% 17.390% 49.577% 18.410% 9.493% 5.130%
4. Ethereal 12.01 1.602% 1.602% 32.072% 64.347% 1.749% 0.230%
5. Komodo 2503.05 4.331% 86.737% 8.932%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.170% 12.101% 2.021% 85.708%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 81.008%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 17.390%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.602%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 81.008%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 17.390%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.602%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5
1 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246/20200407DC 3.0 12.15 1.73 1.79 56 24 11 6 3
2 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 1.5 10.42 1.89 3.09 18 24 20 15 12
3 Fire 021819 1.0 9.86 1.87 3.56 11 19 20 17 16
4 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 1.0 9.46 1.86 3.91 8 15 18 18 19
5 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 1.0 9.13 1.85 4.18 6 12 16 18 20
6 LCZeroCPU v0.24_rc1-n591215/v0.24-n591215 5.5 8.98 1.14 4.46 0 5 16 26 31

Expected start time based on estimate of 4.51h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-23 23:40 15 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-24 04:11 16 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 08:42 17 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-24 13:13 18 Ethereal 12.01 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 17:43 19 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Fire 021819
2020-04-24 22:14 20 Fire 021819 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
Posted inBayesElo