For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post


Separate virtual CPU only DivP

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.812% 0.188% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.004% 74.349% 74.353% 21.248% 3.584% 0.810% 0.005%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.184% 19.804% 19.988% 24.418% 14.262% 21.104% 20.228%
4. Ethereal 12.01 3.727% 3.727% 37.961% 35.959% 21.079% 1.274%
5. Komodo 2503.05 1.932% 1.932% 16.200% 44.254% 35.295% 2.319%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.173% 1.941% 21.712% 76.174%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 74.349%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 19.804%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 3.727%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 1.932%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.184%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.004%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 74.353%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 19.988%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 3.727%
4. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 1.932%

Speculate Ethereal 12.01 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.923% 0.077% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.007% 76.125% 76.132% 15.475% 6.845% 1.544% 0.004%
3. Ethereal 12.01 16.722% 16.722% 69.023% 12.211% 2.039% 0.005%
4. Komodo 2503.05 0.769% 0.769% 5.378% 59.365% 32.442% 2.046%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.070% 6.307% 6.377% 10.111% 19.246% 30.233% 34.033%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.013% 2.333% 33.742% 63.912%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 76.125%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 16.722%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 6.307%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 0.769%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.070%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.007%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 76.132%
2. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 16.722%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 6.377%
4. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 0.769%

Speculate Ethereal 12.01 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.809% 0.191% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.010% 75.392% 75.402% 20.656% 3.204% 0.736% 0.002%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.181% 20.359% 20.540% 25.234% 13.490% 21.251% 19.485%
4. Ethereal 12.01 1.949% 1.949% 36.351% 41.305% 19.535% 0.860%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.109% 2.109% 17.607% 40.293% 37.584% 2.407%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.152% 1.708% 20.894% 77.246%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 75.392%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 20.359%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 2.109%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.949%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.181%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.010%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 75.402%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 20.540%
3. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 2.109%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.949%

Speculate Ethereal 12.01 – LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.341% 0.659% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.006% 61.349% 61.355% 35.392% 3.056% 0.195% 0.002%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.653% 35.262% 35.915% 35.524% 15.491% 8.162% 4.908%
4. Komodo 2503.05 2.497% 2.497% 21.891% 55.189% 19.186% 1.237%
5. Ethereal 12.01 0.233% 0.233% 6.623% 23.233% 63.766% 6.145%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.570% 3.031% 8.691% 87.708%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 61.349%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 35.262%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 2.497%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.653%
5. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 0.233%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.006%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 61.355%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 35.915%
3. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 2.497%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 0.233%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5
1 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246/20200407DC 1.5 11.76 1.85 2.10 47 23 14 9 5
2 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 1.0 10.41 1.96 3.15 20 22 18 16 14
3 Fire 021819 0.0 9.90 1.98 3.56 13 18 18 17 17
4 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 0.5 9.47 1.91 3.91 9 14 17 18 20
5 LCZeroCPU v0.24_rc1-n591215/v0.24-n591215 3.0 9.33 1.60 4.08 5 12 18 22 23
6 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 1.0 9.14 1.87 4.20 6 11 15 18 22

Expected start time based on estimate of 5.69h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-23 06:03 9 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Fire 021819
2020-04-23 11:45 10 Fire 021819 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-23 17:26 11 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-23 23:08 12 Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 04:50 13 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-24 10:31 14 Komodo 2503.05 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 16:13 15 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-24 21:55 16 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-25 03:36 17 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-25 09:18 18 Ethereal 12.01 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-25 15:00 19 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Fire 021819
2020-04-25 20:41 20 Fire 021819 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215