Apr 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Separate virtual CPU only DivP

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.814% 0.186% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.007% 75.321% 75.328% 20.764% 3.132% 0.772% 0.004%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.179% 20.460% 20.639% 25.298% 13.539% 20.863% 19.661%
4. Ethereal 12.01 1.952% 1.952% 36.213% 41.510% 19.386% 0.939%
5. Komodo 2503.05 2.081% 2.081% 17.556% 40.063% 37.880% 2.420%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.169% 1.756% 21.099% 76.976%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 75.321%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 20.460%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 2.081%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.952%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.179%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.007%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 75.328%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 20.639%
3. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 2.081%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.952%

Speculate LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 – Fire 021819 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.461% 0.539% 100.000%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.539% 48.148% 48.687% 23.232% 9.912% 11.062% 7.107%
3. Fire 021819 41.305% 41.305% 44.797% 10.099% 3.766% 0.033%
4. Ethereal 12.01 4.805% 4.805% 19.070% 51.360% 24.093% 0.672%
5. Komodo 2503.05 5.199% 5.199% 12.737% 28.023% 51.320% 2.721%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.004% 0.004% 0.164% 0.606% 9.759% 89.467%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 48.148%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 41.305%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 5.199%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 4.805%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.539%
6. Stockfish 202003092246 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.004%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 48.687%
2. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 41.305%
3. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 5.199%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 4.805%
5. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 0.004%

Speculate LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.856% 0.144% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.001% 78.755% 78.756% 18.585% 2.310% 0.348% 0.001%
3. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.143% 17.789% 17.932% 25.905% 14.228% 21.944% 19.991%
4. Ethereal 12.01 1.678% 1.678% 37.620% 40.376% 19.393% 0.933%
5. Komodo 2503.05 1.634% 1.634% 17.700% 41.255% 36.991% 2.420%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.190% 1.831% 21.324% 76.655%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 78.755%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 17.789%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 1.678%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 1.634%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.143%
6. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 78.756%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 17.932%
3. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 1.678%
4. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 1.634%

Speculate LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 – Fire 021819 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 99.929% 0.071% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 0.041% 96.386% 96.427% 3.348% 0.210% 0.015%
3. Ethereal 12.01 0.123% 0.123% 48.290% 36.770% 13.817% 1.000%
4. Komodo 2503.05 0.147% 0.147% 22.917% 50.667% 24.506% 1.763%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 0.030% 3.273% 3.303% 25.305% 9.746% 26.980% 34.666%
6. KomodoMCTS 2503.05 0.140% 2.607% 34.682% 62.571%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202003092246 Fire 021819 96.386%
2. Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 3.273%
3. Stockfish 202003092246 Komodo 2503.05 0.147%
4. Stockfish 202003092246 Ethereal 12.01 0.123%
5. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 0.041%
6. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 0.030%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Stockfish 202003092246 96.427%
2. LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246 3.303%
3. Komodo 2503.05 Stockfish 202003092246 0.147%
4. Ethereal 12.01 Stockfish 202003092246 0.123%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5
1 Stockfish 2019121008/202003040717/202003092246/20200407DC 1.5 11.77 1.84 2.09 47 23 13 8 5
2 Komodo 2428.00/2503.00/2503.05 1.0 10.38 1.96 3.16 20 22 18 16 13
3 Fire 021819 0.0 9.89 1.97 3.56 13 18 18 17 16
4 Ethereal 11.78_attack_tables/11.78_ttbucket_lock/11.86/11.88/12.00/12.01 1.0 9.45 1.86 3.94 8 14 17 19 20
5 LCZeroCPU v0.24_rc1-n591215/v0.24-n591215 3.5 9.36 1.53 4.06 4 12 18 23 24
6 KomodoMCTS 2428.00/2484.00/2499.00/2503.05 1.0 9.14 1.87 4.19 7 12 15 18 22

Expected start time based on estimate of 5.27h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-04-23 07:58 10 Fire 021819 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-23 13:14 11 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Stockfish 202003092246
2020-04-23 18:30 12 Stockfish 202003092246 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-23 23:47 13 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Komodo 2503.05
2020-04-24 05:03 14 Komodo 2503.05 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 10:20 15 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 KomodoMCTS 2503.05
2020-04-24 15:36 16 KomodoMCTS 2503.05 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-24 20:52 17 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Ethereal 12.01
2020-04-25 02:09 18 Ethereal 12.01 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
2020-04-25 07:25 19 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215 Fire 021819
2020-04-25 12:42 20 Fire 021819 LCZeroCPU v0.24-n591215
Posted inBayesElo