For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 34.252% 26.299% 60.551% 16.751% 9.952% 5.813% 3.549% 1.864% 0.970% 0.435% 0.115%
2. Counter 3.5dev 31.416% 21.791% 53.207% 15.948% 10.656% 7.369% 5.133% 3.507% 2.264% 1.282% 0.634%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 18.994% 20.991% 39.985% 18.918% 14.288% 10.201% 6.933% 4.607% 2.940% 1.465% 0.663%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 4.108% 8.863% 12.971% 13.420% 16.367% 16.034% 14.177% 11.080% 8.103% 5.318% 2.530%
5. Asymptote 0.8 3.579% 6.370% 9.949% 9.013% 11.406% 13.040% 13.353% 12.867% 11.943% 10.304% 8.125%
6. Monolith 2 3.093% 5.489% 8.582% 8.134% 10.339% 12.078% 13.227% 13.551% 12.755% 11.690% 9.644%
7. Weiss 0.10-dev2 1.232% 3.134% 4.366% 5.796% 8.781% 11.261% 12.987% 14.216% 14.463% 14.542% 13.588%
8. FabChess 1.14.2 2.591% 4.732% 7.323% 6.803% 8.737% 9.792% 10.511% 11.600% 12.697% 14.041% 18.496%
9. Bagatur 2.1 0.307% 1.059% 1.366% 2.475% 4.727% 7.238% 10.422% 14.078% 17.941% 20.924% 20.829%
10. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.428% 1.272% 1.700% 2.742% 4.747% 7.174% 9.708% 12.630% 15.924% 19.999% 25.376%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 13.617%
2. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 12.201%
3. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 9.629%
4. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 8.240%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 7.521%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 5.786%
7. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 3.571%
8. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 2.793%
9. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 2.475%
10. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 2.460%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 25.818%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 17.150%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 14.026%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 5.019%
5. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 3.765%
6. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 3.697%
7. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 3.237%
8. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 3.181%
9. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 2.806%
10. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 2.490%

Speculate chess22k 1.14 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 40.265% 28.007% 68.272% 15.946% 8.205% 4.206% 2.018% 0.877% 0.328% 0.115% 0.033%
2. Counter 3.5dev 28.973% 22.785% 51.758% 16.721% 11.496% 7.687% 5.106% 3.416% 2.047% 1.195% 0.574%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 17.597% 20.844% 38.441% 20.005% 14.980% 10.511% 6.967% 4.467% 2.740% 1.335% 0.554%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 3.566% 8.169% 11.735% 13.266% 16.870% 16.730% 14.396% 11.369% 8.144% 5.216% 2.274%
5. Asymptote 0.8 3.216% 5.911% 9.127% 9.174% 11.764% 13.528% 13.996% 13.267% 11.734% 9.930% 7.480%
6. Monolith 2 2.642% 5.149% 7.791% 8.187% 10.910% 12.629% 13.739% 13.674% 13.071% 11.287% 8.712%
7. Weiss 0.10-dev2 1.116% 2.954% 4.070% 5.747% 9.234% 11.776% 13.532% 14.307% 14.795% 14.190% 12.349%
8. FabChess 1.14.2 2.246% 4.694% 6.940% 7.057% 8.927% 10.004% 11.155% 11.990% 12.615% 13.938% 17.374%
9. Bagatur 2.1 0.274% 0.963% 1.237% 2.389% 4.588% 7.594% 11.021% 14.885% 18.301% 20.692% 19.293%
10. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.105% 0.524% 0.629% 1.508% 3.026% 5.335% 8.070% 11.748% 16.225% 22.102% 31.357%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 14.750%
2. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 14.691%
3. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 11.482%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 8.172%
5. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 6.874%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 4.934%
7. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 3.965%
8. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 2.974%
9. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 2.798%
10. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 2.492%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 29.441%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 19.654%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 11.808%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 5.406%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 4.039%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 3.752%
7. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 3.518%
8. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 2.997%
9. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 2.442%
10. ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1 2.008%

Speculate chess22k 1.14 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 35.579% 20.279% 55.858% 14.164% 9.969% 7.068% 5.075% 3.324% 2.339% 1.455% 0.748%
2. chess22k 1.14 22.775% 24.037% 46.812% 18.986% 13.476% 8.788% 5.577% 3.418% 1.800% 0.870% 0.273%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 22.451% 21.010% 43.461% 17.079% 12.969% 9.516% 6.737% 4.757% 2.978% 1.754% 0.749%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 5.644% 10.520% 16.164% 13.828% 15.595% 15.176% 13.194% 10.632% 7.771% 5.054% 2.586%
5. Asymptote 0.8 4.398% 6.797% 11.195% 8.970% 10.780% 12.315% 12.806% 12.597% 11.872% 10.842% 8.623%
6. Monolith 2 3.710% 5.992% 9.702% 8.200% 9.950% 11.446% 12.492% 12.873% 12.895% 12.074% 10.368%
7. Weiss 0.10-dev2 1.488% 3.535% 5.023% 5.905% 8.477% 10.278% 12.024% 13.393% 14.572% 14.963% 15.365%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.818% 2.344% 3.162% 4.390% 7.008% 9.977% 12.643% 14.848% 16.205% 16.888% 14.879%
9. FabChess 1.14.2 2.740% 4.306% 7.046% 5.916% 7.333% 8.638% 9.709% 11.136% 12.482% 14.876% 22.864%
10. Bagatur 2.1 0.397% 1.180% 1.577% 2.562% 4.443% 6.798% 9.743% 13.022% 17.086% 21.224% 23.545%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 12.021%
2. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 10.495%
3. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 7.658%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 7.544%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 7.004%
6. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 6.206%
7. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 4.061%
8. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 2.694%
9. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 2.559%
10. ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1 2.478%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 19.679%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 18.039%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 13.210%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 5.551%
5. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 4.178%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1 3.791%
7. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 3.722%
8. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 3.325%
9. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 2.792%
10. Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3 2.513%

Speculate chess22k 1.14 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 37.686% 19.673% 57.359% 12.933% 9.287% 6.835% 4.977% 3.708% 2.553% 1.575% 0.773%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 24.016% 21.242% 45.258% 16.017% 11.821% 9.110% 6.850% 5.011% 3.254% 1.874% 0.805%
3. chess22k 1.14 14.437% 18.165% 32.602% 16.893% 14.396% 11.863% 9.203% 6.851% 4.539% 2.618% 1.035%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 6.537% 11.183% 17.720% 13.866% 14.594% 14.084% 12.587% 10.417% 8.121% 5.558% 3.053%
5. Asymptote 0.8 4.952% 7.300% 12.252% 8.944% 10.349% 11.304% 12.075% 12.267% 12.187% 11.138% 9.484%
6. Tucano 8.07_dev2 3.036% 6.441% 9.477% 9.239% 11.230% 12.844% 13.629% 13.397% 12.412% 10.808% 6.964%
7. Monolith 2 4.183% 6.327% 10.510% 8.102% 9.441% 10.463% 11.676% 12.694% 13.170% 12.863% 11.081%
8. Weiss 0.10-dev2 1.670% 3.988% 5.658% 6.034% 7.907% 9.464% 11.203% 12.809% 14.530% 16.044% 16.351%
9. FabChess 1.14.2 3.048% 4.324% 7.372% 5.379% 6.729% 7.830% 9.076% 10.463% 12.575% 15.507% 25.069%
10. Bagatur 2.1 0.435% 1.357% 1.792% 2.593% 4.246% 6.203% 8.724% 12.383% 16.659% 22.015% 25.385%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 11.891%
2. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 8.650%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 8.442%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 5.069%
5. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 4.810%
6. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 4.567%
7. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 3.873%
8. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 3.023%
9. ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1 2.888%
10. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 2.605%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 20.333%
2. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 13.217%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 8.942%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 6.660%
5. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 4.460%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1 4.422%
7. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 3.792%
8. Counter 3.5dev Tucano 8.07_dev2 3.373%
9. Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3 2.952%
10. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 2.877%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 chess22k 1.14 1.0 12.42 2.27 2.52 35 26 16 10 6 3 2 1 0
2 Counter 3.5dev 1.0 11.96 2.72 2.99 32 22 15 10 7 5 4 3 2
3 ChessFighter 3.3 1.5 11.10 2.51 3.57 18 20 19 14 10 7 5 3 2
4 Combusken 1.1.1 1.5 8.93 2.33 5.51 3 7 11 14 15 15 13 10 7
5 Asymptote 0.8 1.0 8.37 2.69 6.04 3 6 9 11 12 13 13 12 11
6 Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 0.0 8.24 2.60 6.15 2 5 9 12 13 13 13 12 11
7 Monolith 2 1.0 8.05 2.67 6.32 3 5 8 10 11 12 13 13 13
8 FabChess 1.14.2 0.0 7.83 3.05 6.47 3 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13
9 Bagatur 2.1 0.5 6.80 2.23 7.52 0 1 3 5 8 11 15 18 20
10 Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 0.5 6.29 2.38 7.92 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 16 21

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.20h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-04 05:46 10 Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-04 06:58 11 FabChess 1.14.2 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-04 08:10 12 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-04 09:22 13 Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-04 10:33 14 Bagatur 2.1 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-04 11:45 15 ChessFighter 3.3 Monolith 2
2020-05-04 12:57 16 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Monolith 2
2020-05-04 14:09 17 Combusken 1.1.1 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-04 15:21 18 chess22k 1.14 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-04 16:33 19 Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-04 17:45 20 FabChess 1.14.2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-04 18:56 21 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-04 20:08 22 Asymptote 0.8 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-04 21:20 23 Bagatur 2.1 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-04 22:32 24 ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-04 23:44 25 Monolith 2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-05 00:56 26 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-05 02:07 27 chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2
2020-05-05 03:19 28 Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-05 04:31 29 FabChess 1.14.2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-05 05:43 30 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-05 06:55 31 Asymptote 0.8 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-05 08:07 32 Bagatur 2.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-05 09:19 33 ChessFighter 3.3 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-05 10:30 34 Monolith 2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-05 11:42 35 Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-05 12:54 36 Weiss 0.10-dev2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-05 14:06 37 Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-05 15:18 38 FabChess 1.14.2 Monolith 2
2020-05-05 16:30 39 Tucano 8.07_dev2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-05 17:41 40 Asymptote 0.8 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-05 18:53 41 Bagatur 2.1 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-05 20:05 42 ChessFighter 3.3 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-05 21:17 43 Monolith 2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-05 22:29 44 Combusken 1.1.1 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-05 23:41 45 chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 00:53 46 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 02:04 47 chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 03:16 48 Combusken 1.1.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 04:28 49 Monolith 2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 05:40 50 ChessFighter 3.3 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 06:52 51 ChessFighter 3.3 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 08:04 52 Bagatur 2.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-06 09:15 53 Asymptote 0.8 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 10:27 54 Tucano 8.07_dev2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 11:39 55 FabChess 1.14.2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 12:51 56 Weiss 0.10-dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 14:03 57 Counter 3.5dev Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 15:15 58 chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 16:27 59 Combusken 1.1.1 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 17:38 60 Monolith 2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-06 18:50 61 Monolith 2 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 20:02 62 ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 21:14 63 Bagatur 2.1 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 22:26 64 Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 23:38 65 Tucano 8.07_dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 00:49 66 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 02:01 67 FabChess 1.14.2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 03:13 68 Counter 3.5dev Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 04:25 69 chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 05:37 70 Combusken 1.1.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-07 06:49 71 Combusken 1.1.1 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 08:01 72 Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-07 09:12 73 ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 10:24 74 Bagatur 2.1 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 11:36 75 Asymptote 0.8 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 12:48 76 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 14:00 77 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 15:12 78 FabChess 1.14.2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 16:23 79 Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2
2020-05-07 17:35 80 chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-07 18:47 81 chess22k 1.14 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 19:59 82 Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 21:11 83 Monolith 2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 22:23 84 ChessFighter 3.3 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 23:35 85 Bagatur 2.1 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-08 00:46 86 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-08 01:58 87 Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-08 03:10 88 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Monolith 2
2020-05-08 04:22 89 FabChess 1.14.2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-08 05:34 90 Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14