For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
66.942% |
21.661% |
|
88.603% |
|
7.213% |
2.749% |
1.003% |
0.357% |
0.074% |
0.001% |
|
|
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
20.466% |
30.227% |
|
50.693% |
|
19.536% |
12.723% |
8.503% |
5.474% |
2.955% |
0.113% |
0.003% |
|
3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
3.985% |
15.804% |
|
19.789% |
|
23.922% |
20.698% |
16.196% |
11.635% |
7.314% |
0.426% |
0.020% |
|
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
3.182% |
10.988% |
|
14.170% |
|
15.356% |
18.351% |
18.816% |
17.520% |
13.965% |
1.645% |
0.173% |
0.004% |
5. |
Monolith 2 |
|
2.246% |
9.620% |
|
11.866% |
|
13.798% |
16.295% |
18.836% |
20.256% |
16.311% |
2.237% |
0.396% |
0.005% |
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
2.084% |
7.516% |
|
9.600% |
|
12.190% |
17.164% |
19.763% |
20.163% |
18.344% |
2.560% |
0.213% |
0.003% |
7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
1.095% |
4.180% |
|
5.275% |
|
7.946% |
11.816% |
16.161% |
21.937% |
29.468% |
6.189% |
1.192% |
0.016% |
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.028% |
0.153% |
0.536% |
1.890% |
8.051% |
53.181% |
31.849% |
4.310% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.011% |
0.051% |
0.184% |
0.766% |
3.476% |
31.830% |
57.751% |
5.929% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.002% |
0.042% |
1.818% |
8.403% |
89.733% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
26.939% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
14.836% |
3. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
13.305% |
4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
9.010% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
8.476% |
6. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
5.924% |
7. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
3.284% |
8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.118% |
9. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2.100% |
10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.862% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
41.775% |
2. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
15.423% |
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
10.872% |
4. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
9.537% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
7.122% |
6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
3.870% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
3.048% |
8. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2.081% |
9. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.615% |
10. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
1.340% |
Speculate Monolith 2 – Counter 3.5dev 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
74.388% |
15.718% |
|
90.106% |
|
5.882% |
2.405% |
1.059% |
0.428% |
0.118% |
0.002% |
|
|
2. |
Monolith 2 |
|
7.003% |
25.754% |
|
32.757% |
|
20.448% |
17.153% |
13.704% |
10.098% |
5.392% |
0.406% |
0.042% |
|
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
7.420% |
16.049% |
|
23.469% |
|
19.004% |
18.201% |
16.505% |
13.507% |
8.790% |
0.498% |
0.026% |
|
4. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
4.375% |
18.111% |
|
22.486% |
|
18.924% |
18.502% |
17.033% |
13.688% |
8.861% |
0.476% |
0.030% |
|
5. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
3.363% |
11.610% |
|
14.973% |
|
15.914% |
17.370% |
17.922% |
17.407% |
14.683% |
1.569% |
0.161% |
0.001% |
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
2.274% |
8.203% |
|
10.477% |
|
11.799% |
14.749% |
17.454% |
20.939% |
21.556% |
2.788% |
0.235% |
0.003% |
7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
1.177% |
4.552% |
|
5.729% |
|
7.991% |
11.469% |
15.794% |
21.798% |
30.236% |
5.932% |
1.035% |
0.016% |
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.035% |
0.116% |
0.402% |
1.683% |
7.596% |
54.781% |
31.297% |
4.087% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.035% |
0.127% |
0.450% |
2.720% |
31.671% |
58.748% |
6.246% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.048% |
1.877% |
8.426% |
89.647% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
24.015% |
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
16.577% |
3. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
13.155% |
4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
9.919% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
6.994% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.176% |
7. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
3.879% |
8. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
3.725% |
9. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.414% |
10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.115% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
27.894% |
2. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
18.991% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
18.331% |
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
12.034% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
8.437% |
6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
4.416% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
1.950% |
8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.286% |
9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
0.951% |
10. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Monolith 2 |
0.915% |
Speculate Monolith 2 – Counter 3.5dev 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
69.218% |
20.202% |
|
89.420% |
|
6.536% |
2.640% |
0.975% |
0.330% |
0.098% |
0.001% |
|
|
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
18.190% |
31.034% |
|
49.224% |
|
21.075% |
13.550% |
8.478% |
5.162% |
2.421% |
0.085% |
0.005% |
|
3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
4.097% |
16.050% |
|
20.147% |
|
23.172% |
20.421% |
16.369% |
11.953% |
7.432% |
0.476% |
0.028% |
0.002% |
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
3.295% |
11.573% |
|
14.868% |
|
15.193% |
17.795% |
18.546% |
17.446% |
14.386% |
1.594% |
0.171% |
0.001% |
5. |
Monolith 2 |
|
1.892% |
8.956% |
|
10.848% |
|
14.211% |
17.472% |
20.019% |
20.663% |
14.915% |
1.647% |
0.223% |
0.002% |
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
2.212% |
7.740% |
|
9.952% |
|
12.163% |
16.487% |
19.123% |
20.228% |
19.061% |
2.706% |
0.275% |
0.005% |
7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
1.096% |
4.439% |
|
5.535% |
|
7.610% |
11.448% |
15.791% |
21.835% |
30.367% |
6.239% |
1.161% |
0.014% |
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
0.005% |
|
0.005% |
|
0.031% |
0.148% |
0.519% |
1.766% |
8.075% |
53.698% |
31.558% |
4.200% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.009% |
0.039% |
0.179% |
0.616% |
3.203% |
31.628% |
58.410% |
5.915% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.001% |
0.042% |
1.926% |
8.169% |
89.861% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
27.947% |
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
13.845% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
13.207% |
4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
9.744% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
7.856% |
6. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
6.276% |
7. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
3.546% |
8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.184% |
9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.960% |
10. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.817% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
41.154% |
2. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
16.029% |
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
11.704% |
4. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
8.779% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
7.593% |
6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
4.157% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2.726% |
8. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.923% |
9. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.440% |
10. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
1.244% |
Speculate Monolith 2 – Counter 3.5dev 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
55.506% |
31.180% |
|
86.686% |
|
9.008% |
2.984% |
0.956% |
0.301% |
0.064% |
0.001% |
|
|
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
36.083% |
37.200% |
|
73.283% |
|
15.567% |
6.798% |
2.893% |
1.140% |
0.308% |
0.011% |
|
|
3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
3.253% |
12.094% |
|
15.347% |
|
30.260% |
23.224% |
15.340% |
9.858% |
5.545% |
0.397% |
0.028% |
0.001% |
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
2.488% |
8.814% |
|
11.302% |
|
16.499% |
21.291% |
20.367% |
17.016% |
11.816% |
1.518% |
0.190% |
0.001% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
1.614% |
5.590% |
|
7.204% |
|
12.890% |
20.182% |
22.911% |
20.044% |
14.246% |
2.286% |
0.233% |
0.004% |
6. |
Monolith 2 |
|
0.252% |
1.745% |
|
1.997% |
|
7.281% |
12.228% |
18.516% |
26.060% |
28.088% |
4.794% |
1.024% |
0.012% |
7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
0.804% |
3.376% |
|
4.180% |
|
8.448% |
13.053% |
18.057% |
22.100% |
26.701% |
6.153% |
1.290% |
0.018% |
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.038% |
0.187% |
0.699% |
2.424% |
8.738% |
51.700% |
32.007% |
4.206% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.053% |
0.261% |
1.054% |
4.417% |
31.222% |
57.112% |
5.872% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
0.077% |
1.918% |
8.116% |
89.886% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
33.962% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
27.164% |
3. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
8.334% |
4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
6.308% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
3.579% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
3.562% |
7. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2.147% |
8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2.063% |
9. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
1.723% |
10. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.466% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
61.126% |
2. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
9.800% |
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
7.571% |
4. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
4.787% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
4.389% |
6. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
3.085% |
7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.519% |
8. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2.360% |
9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.330% |
10. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.280% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.0 |
13.44 |
1.59 |
1.65 |
64 |
20 |
9 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
4.5 |
11.65 |
1.84 |
3.13 |
19 |
26 |
19 |
14 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
4.5 |
10.72 |
1.75 |
4.04 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
4.0 |
10.44 |
1.65 |
4.32 |
4 |
13 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
Monolith 2 |
3.5 |
10.01 |
1.87 |
4.75 |
4 |
11 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
4.0 |
10.00 |
1.73 |
4.80 |
3 |
9 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
3.5 |
8.92 |
1.75 |
5.87 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
10 |
15 |
21 |
30 |
11 |
3 |
8 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2.0 |
6.27 |
1.61 |
8.10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
13 |
44 |
29 |
9 |
Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 |
2.0 |
5.45 |
1.55 |
8.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
26 |
51 |
10 |
Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 |
0.0 |
3.09 |
1.60 |
9.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.16h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-05-05 10:28 |
35 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-05 11:38 |
36 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-05 12:48 |
37 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-05 13:57 |
38 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-05 15:07 |
39 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-05 16:17 |
40 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-05 17:26 |
41 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-05 18:36 |
42 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-05 19:46 |
43 |
Monolith 2 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-05 20:55 |
44 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-05 22:05 |
45 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-05 23:15 |
46 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-06 00:25 |
47 |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-06 01:34 |
48 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-06 02:44 |
49 |
Monolith 2 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-06 03:54 |
50 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-06 05:03 |
51 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-06 06:13 |
52 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-06 07:23 |
53 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-06 08:32 |
54 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-06 09:42 |
55 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-06 10:52 |
56 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-06 12:01 |
57 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-06 13:11 |
58 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-06 14:21 |
59 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-06 15:30 |
60 |
Monolith 2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-06 16:40 |
61 |
Monolith 2 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-06 17:50 |
62 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-06 18:59 |
63 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-06 20:09 |
64 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-06 21:19 |
65 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-06 22:28 |
66 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-06 23:38 |
67 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-07 00:48 |
68 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 01:57 |
69 |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-07 03:07 |
70 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-07 04:17 |
71 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-07 05:26 |
72 |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-07 06:36 |
73 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-07 07:46 |
74 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-07 08:55 |
75 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-07 10:05 |
76 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-07 11:15 |
77 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 12:24 |
78 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-07 13:34 |
79 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-07 14:44 |
80 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-07 15:53 |
81 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-07 17:03 |
82 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-07 18:13 |
83 |
Monolith 2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-07 19:22 |
84 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-07 20:32 |
85 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-07 21:42 |
86 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 22:51 |
87 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-08 00:01 |
88 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-08 01:11 |
89 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-08 02:20 |
90 |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |