For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 60.488% 23.520% 84.008% 9.456% 4.023% 1.716% 0.626% 0.166% 0.005%
2. Counter 3.5dev 20.810% 26.345% 47.155% 20.352% 14.154% 9.378% 5.908% 2.971% 0.081% 0.001%
3. FabChess 1.14.2 4.717% 14.283% 19.000% 20.241% 20.211% 17.551% 13.848% 8.759% 0.355% 0.035%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 5.419% 11.907% 17.326% 13.971% 15.465% 16.380% 17.019% 17.966% 1.702% 0.169% 0.002%
5. Monolith 2 2.985% 9.479% 12.464% 14.436% 17.310% 19.406% 19.081% 15.855% 1.313% 0.135%
6. Asymptote 0.8 3.692% 8.197% 11.889% 11.137% 14.480% 16.797% 19.403% 23.178% 2.862% 0.254%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 1.889% 6.263% 8.152% 10.356% 14.212% 18.285% 22.424% 23.683% 2.584% 0.300% 0.004%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.006% 0.006% 0.040% 0.105% 0.354% 1.210% 5.112% 54.868% 31.707% 6.598%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.011% 0.040% 0.133% 0.476% 2.276% 33.118% 54.862% 9.084%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.005% 0.034% 3.112% 12.537% 84.312%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 21.457%
2. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 13.864%
3. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 11.394%
4. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 9.193%
5. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 7.742%
6. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 6.011%
7. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 4.686%
8. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 3.078%
9. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 2.229%
10. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 2.221%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 35.321%
2. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 13.615%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 12.271%
4. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 9.000%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 8.106%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 5.690%
7. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 3.296%
8. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 2.900%
9. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 2.225%
10. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 1.943%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – ChessFighter 3.3 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 62.903% 23.485% 86.388% 8.595% 3.303% 1.196% 0.428% 0.084% 0.006%
2. Counter 3.5dev 22.340% 30.490% 52.830% 20.667% 12.380% 7.541% 4.373% 2.100% 0.105% 0.004%
3. FabChess 1.14.2 4.863% 15.372% 20.235% 23.163% 21.089% 16.695% 11.923% 6.212% 0.625% 0.058%
4. Monolith 2 2.740% 9.920% 12.660% 15.797% 19.227% 20.135% 17.499% 12.141% 2.293% 0.246% 0.002%
5. Asymptote 0.8 4.100% 9.366% 13.466% 12.748% 16.813% 18.068% 18.602% 16.806% 2.960% 0.533% 0.004%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 2.074% 7.324% 9.398% 12.064% 16.560% 20.283% 21.962% 16.012% 3.112% 0.607% 0.002%
7. ChessFighter 3.3 0.979% 4.032% 5.011% 6.875% 10.206% 14.758% 21.201% 31.878% 8.332% 1.722% 0.017%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.007% 0.007% 0.058% 0.276% 0.847% 2.475% 9.323% 49.853% 35.132% 2.029%
9. Bagatur 2.1 0.001% 0.004% 0.005% 0.033% 0.146% 0.477% 1.536% 5.398% 31.397% 52.887% 8.121%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.001% 0.046% 1.317% 8.811% 89.825%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 26.334%
2. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 15.702%
3. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 12.513%
4. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 8.274%
5. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 7.031%
6. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 5.595%
7. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 3.147%
8. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 2.459%
9. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 2.437%
10. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 2.361%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 42.036%
2. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 14.950%
3. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 9.501%
4. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 9.490%
5. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 6.702%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 3.699%
7. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 3.653%
8. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 2.644%
9. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 1.995%
10. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 1.745%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – ChessFighter 3.3 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 61.768% 23.484% 85.252% 8.949% 3.607% 1.489% 0.528% 0.173% 0.002%
2. Counter 3.5dev 21.641% 27.467% 49.108% 20.107% 13.542% 8.883% 5.501% 2.778% 0.079% 0.002%
3. FabChess 1.14.2 4.704% 14.826% 19.530% 21.210% 20.325% 17.039% 13.066% 8.360% 0.442% 0.028%
4. Monolith 2 2.842% 9.851% 12.693% 14.825% 17.685% 19.400% 18.530% 15.318% 1.409% 0.137% 0.003%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 3.158% 8.903% 12.061% 11.876% 14.858% 17.568% 19.540% 21.979% 1.962% 0.155% 0.001%
6. Asymptote 0.8 3.835% 8.583% 12.418% 11.868% 15.018% 16.772% 19.181% 21.773% 2.689% 0.274% 0.007%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 2.052% 6.883% 8.935% 11.122% 14.843% 18.340% 21.910% 21.978% 2.583% 0.284% 0.005%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.003% 0.003% 0.032% 0.099% 0.374% 1.241% 5.092% 50.781% 35.514% 6.864%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.011% 0.023% 0.135% 0.501% 2.508% 37.528% 53.128% 6.166%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.002% 0.041% 2.525% 10.478% 86.954%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 23.064%
2. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 14.823%
3. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 12.013%
4. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 8.164%
5. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 6.967%
6. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 6.333%
7. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 5.224%
8. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 2.302%
9. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 2.252%
10. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 2.237%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 37.887%
2. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 14.315%
3. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 9.424%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 8.756%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 8.585%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 6.282%
7. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 3.281%
8. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 2.389%
9. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 1.961%
10. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 1.889%

Speculate Tucano 8.07_dev2 – ChessFighter 3.3 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 57.858% 23.943% 81.801% 10.505% 4.702% 2.028% 0.763% 0.198% 0.003%
2. Counter 3.5dev 19.171% 23.456% 42.627% 20.935% 15.623% 10.907% 6.641% 3.193% 0.073% 0.001%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 10.335% 18.475% 28.810% 18.048% 16.878% 14.755% 12.278% 8.913% 0.313% 0.005%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 4.527% 12.989% 17.516% 18.270% 20.250% 18.486% 15.140% 10.007% 0.321% 0.010%
5. Monolith 2 2.843% 8.489% 11.332% 13.187% 16.677% 19.392% 20.709% 17.740% 0.898% 0.065%
6. Asymptote 0.8 3.506% 7.159% 10.665% 9.982% 13.027% 16.758% 20.121% 26.616% 2.707% 0.122% 0.002%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 1.759% 5.486% 7.245% 9.048% 12.772% 17.385% 23.183% 27.705% 2.535% 0.125% 0.002%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.001% 0.003% 0.004% 0.024% 0.070% 0.276% 1.067% 4.949% 64.954% 23.237% 5.419%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.001% 0.001% 0.013% 0.097% 0.637% 23.944% 60.953% 14.354%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.001% 0.042% 4.252% 15.482% 80.223%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 17.769%
2. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 14.156%
3. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 12.223%
4. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 10.079%
5. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 6.722%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 5.932%
7. chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8 5.096%
8. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 4.034%
9. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 2.865%
10. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 2.147%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 29.992%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 20.088%
3. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 11.995%
4. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 7.860%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 7.004%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 5.012%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 4.859%
8. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 2.865%
9. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 1.914%
10. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 1.655%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 chess22k 1.14 6.0 12.59 1.45 1.95 54 21 12 7 4 2 1 0 0
2 Counter 3.5dev 5.5 11.28 1.57 3.28 19 21 19 15 12 8 5 1 0
3 FabChess 1.14.2 5.0 10.52 1.62 4.20 8 15 16 17 16 14 12 2 0
4 ChessFighter 3.3 4.0 10.44 1.66 4.29 7 14 16 16 16 15 12 3 1
5 Monolith 2 4.5 10.25 1.58 4.51 5 12 15 17 18 17 13 3 1
6 Asymptote 0.8 4.0 9.96 1.73 4.84 5 10 12 14 16 18 18 5 1
7 Combusken 1.1.1 4.5 9.58 1.52 5.31 2 6 10 13 17 22 24 5 1
8 Bagatur 2.1 2.0 6.16 1.62 8.28 0 0 0 1 1 3 9 45 29
9 Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 2.0 5.41 1.55 8.75 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 27 47
10 Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 0.5 3.81 1.54 9.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 21

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.16h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-05 16:16 40 Asymptote 0.8 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-05 17:26 41 Bagatur 2.1 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-05 18:36 42 ChessFighter 3.3 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-05 19:45 43 Monolith 2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-05 20:55 44 Combusken 1.1.1 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-05 22:05 45 chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-05 23:14 46 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 00:24 47 chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 01:34 48 Combusken 1.1.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 02:43 49 Monolith 2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 03:53 50 ChessFighter 3.3 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 05:03 51 ChessFighter 3.3 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 06:12 52 Bagatur 2.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-06 07:22 53 Asymptote 0.8 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 08:32 54 Tucano 8.07_dev2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 09:41 55 FabChess 1.14.2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 10:51 56 Weiss 0.10-dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 12:01 57 Counter 3.5dev Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 13:10 58 chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 14:20 59 Combusken 1.1.1 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 15:30 60 Monolith 2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-06 16:39 61 Monolith 2 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 17:49 62 ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 18:59 63 Bagatur 2.1 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 20:08 64 Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 21:18 65 Tucano 8.07_dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 22:28 66 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 23:37 67 FabChess 1.14.2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 00:47 68 Counter 3.5dev Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 01:57 69 chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 03:06 70 Combusken 1.1.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-07 04:16 71 Combusken 1.1.1 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 05:26 72 Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-07 06:35 73 ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 07:45 74 Bagatur 2.1 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 08:55 75 Asymptote 0.8 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 10:04 76 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 11:14 77 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 12:24 78 FabChess 1.14.2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 13:33 79 Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2
2020-05-07 14:43 80 chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-07 15:53 81 chess22k 1.14 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 17:02 82 Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 18:12 83 Monolith 2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 19:22 84 ChessFighter 3.3 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 20:31 85 Bagatur 2.1 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 21:41 86 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 22:51 87 Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-08 00:00 88 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Monolith 2
2020-05-08 01:10 89 FabChess 1.14.2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-08 02:20 90 Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14