For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 56.919% 22.168% 79.087% 11.046% 5.580% 2.705% 1.197% 0.380% 0.005%
2. chess22k 1.14 24.216% 37.405% 61.621% 20.260% 10.005% 5.034% 2.296% 0.776% 0.008%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 9.258% 15.132% 24.390% 19.729% 19.445% 16.282% 12.128% 7.590% 0.399% 0.037%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 4.303% 11.073% 15.376% 20.935% 23.066% 19.122% 13.422% 7.731% 0.332% 0.016%
5. Monolith 2 1.590% 4.393% 5.983% 10.137% 14.631% 18.991% 23.102% 25.177% 1.810% 0.169%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 1.792% 5.189% 6.981% 9.987% 14.152% 18.073% 22.768% 25.418% 2.314% 0.307%
7. Asymptote 0.8 1.922% 4.639% 6.561% 7.898% 13.062% 19.563% 24.097% 27.308% 1.386% 0.125%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.001% 0.001% 0.005% 0.037% 0.139% 0.596% 3.334% 54.051% 40.858% 0.979%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.003% 0.022% 0.091% 0.394% 2.282% 39.459% 56.123% 1.626%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.004% 0.236% 2.365% 97.395%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 33.266%
2. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 11.771%
3. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 8.068%
4. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 7.185%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 5.849%
6. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 5.337%
7. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 3.299%
8. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 3.160%
9. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 2.697%
10. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 2.404%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 45.037%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 13.917%
3. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 9.014%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 7.368%
5. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 4.135%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 4.068%
7. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 3.729%
8. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 3.255%
9. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 1.755%
10. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 1.726%

Speculate Weiss 0.10-dev2 – Counter 3.5dev 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. chess22k 1.14 40.786% 26.362% 67.148% 16.286% 9.018% 4.683% 2.132% 0.728% 0.005%
2. Counter 3.5dev 29.433% 25.350% 54.783% 18.574% 12.516% 7.914% 4.417% 1.768% 0.027% 0.001%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 14.035% 18.244% 32.279% 18.160% 16.628% 14.390% 11.125% 7.022% 0.370% 0.026%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 7.429% 13.022% 20.451% 18.642% 21.490% 18.300% 13.229% 7.561% 0.312% 0.015%
5. Monolith 2 2.428% 5.709% 8.137% 10.292% 14.140% 18.089% 22.303% 25.009% 1.860% 0.166% 0.004%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 2.928% 6.138% 9.066% 9.776% 13.637% 17.712% 22.153% 24.966% 2.396% 0.294%
7. Asymptote 0.8 2.961% 5.172% 8.133% 8.261% 12.506% 18.657% 23.614% 27.330% 1.359% 0.139% 0.001%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.002% 0.002% 0.005% 0.037% 0.151% 0.589% 3.351% 53.608% 38.412% 3.845%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.001% 0.001% 0.004% 0.028% 0.103% 0.438% 2.251% 38.908% 53.237% 5.030%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.001% 0.014% 1.155% 7.710% 91.120%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 16.800%
2. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 13.787%
3. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 11.108%
4. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 7.678%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 6.891%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 4.567%
7. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 3.896%
8. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 3.704%
9. chess22k 1.14 Monolith 2 3.191%
10. chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1 2.881%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 30.587%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 15.675%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 10.595%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 9.768%
5. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 6.048%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 3.939%
7. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 3.770%
8. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 3.407%
9. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 2.762%
10. ChessFighter 3.3 FabChess 1.14.2 2.697%

Speculate Weiss 0.10-dev2 – Counter 3.5dev 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 48.027% 25.256% 73.283% 13.875% 7.122% 3.590% 1.631% 0.496% 0.003%
2. chess22k 1.14 29.299% 33.638% 62.937% 19.234% 9.983% 4.846% 2.239% 0.750% 0.011%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 11.082% 15.553% 26.635% 19.042% 18.739% 15.763% 11.922% 7.510% 0.371% 0.018%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 5.168% 11.140% 16.308% 20.239% 22.874% 19.141% 13.482% 7.633% 0.296% 0.027%
5. Monolith 2 1.999% 4.558% 6.557% 9.747% 14.563% 18.995% 22.738% 25.407% 1.837% 0.156%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 2.194% 5.277% 7.471% 9.864% 13.987% 18.337% 22.820% 24.878% 2.333% 0.309% 0.001%
7. Asymptote 0.8 2.231% 4.578% 6.809% 7.985% 12.666% 19.087% 24.194% 27.791% 1.355% 0.113%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.007% 0.037% 0.142% 0.558% 3.183% 54.405% 40.359% 1.309%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.007% 0.029% 0.099% 0.416% 2.352% 39.031% 55.897% 2.169%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.358% 3.121% 96.521%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 28.311%
2. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 13.431%
3. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 6.858%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 6.638%
5. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 6.500%
6. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 6.190%
7. chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2 4.061%
8. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 2.772%
9. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 2.655%
10. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 2.228%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 41.742%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 13.138%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 9.513%
4. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 8.290%
5. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 5.185%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 3.721%
7. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 3.370%
8. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 3.022%
9. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 2.316%
10. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 2.184%

Speculate Weiss 0.10-dev2 – Counter 3.5dev 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 69.860% 19.207% 89.067% 6.812% 2.727% 0.991% 0.331% 0.071% 0.001%
2. chess22k 1.14 16.535% 42.745% 59.280% 22.208% 10.318% 5.134% 2.274% 0.772% 0.014%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 7.122% 14.276% 21.398% 21.270% 20.307% 16.742% 12.135% 7.764% 0.358% 0.026%
4. FabChess 1.14.2 3.003% 10.670% 13.673% 21.744% 23.781% 18.895% 13.648% 7.891% 0.359% 0.009%
5. Monolith 2 1.084% 3.944% 5.028% 10.211% 15.090% 19.393% 23.249% 25.069% 1.811% 0.149%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 1.099% 4.853% 5.952% 9.988% 14.524% 18.676% 22.982% 25.169% 2.389% 0.320%
7. Asymptote 0.8 1.297% 4.303% 5.600% 7.747% 13.194% 19.914% 24.411% 27.658% 1.347% 0.129%
8. Bagatur 2.1 0.002% 0.002% 0.008% 0.032% 0.145% 0.566% 3.261% 54.330% 41.278% 0.378%
9. Tucano 8.07_dev2 0.012% 0.027% 0.110% 0.404% 2.345% 39.341% 57.096% 0.665%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 0.050% 0.993% 98.957%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 40.593%
2. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 10.446%
3. chess22k 1.14 Counter 3.5dev 10.052%
4. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 8.702%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 5.209%
6. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 3.894%
7. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 3.301%
8. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 2.931%
9. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 2.923%
10. FabChess 1.14.2 Counter 3.5dev 1.721%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 50.645%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 15.655%
3. Counter 3.5dev FabChess 1.14.2 10.423%
4. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 4.534%
5. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 4.167%
6. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 4.063%
7. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 3.642%
8. FabChess 1.14.2 chess22k 1.14 2.027%
9. Combusken 1.1.1 chess22k 1.14 0.858%
10. Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14 0.846%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Counter 3.5dev 6.5 12.21 1.42 2.18 45 24 14 8 5 3 1 0 0
2 chess22k 1.14 6.0 11.80 1.36 2.56 30 28 18 11 7 4 2 0 0
3 ChessFighter 3.3 5.5 10.69 1.43 3.94 9 15 19 18 16 12 8 1 0
4 FabChess 1.14.2 5.5 10.50 1.48 4.18 8 14 17 18 17 14 11 2 0
5 Monolith 2 5.0 9.79 1.47 5.08 3 7 11 15 18 20 20 5 1
6 Asymptote 0.8 5.0 9.77 1.49 5.10 3 7 11 15 18 20 21 5 1
7 Combusken 1.1.1 5.0 9.63 1.40 5.30 2 5 9 14 18 22 23 5 1
8 Bagatur 2.1 3.0 6.32 1.39 8.34 0 0 0 0 1 2 8 42 42
9 Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 3.0 6.18 1.37 8.43 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 38 47
10 Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 0.5 3.12 1.37 9.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.16h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-06 00:27 47 chess22k 1.14 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 01:37 48 Combusken 1.1.1 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 02:47 49 Monolith 2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 03:57 50 ChessFighter 3.3 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 05:06 51 ChessFighter 3.3 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 06:16 52 Bagatur 2.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-06 07:26 53 Asymptote 0.8 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 08:35 54 Tucano 8.07_dev2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 09:45 55 FabChess 1.14.2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 10:55 56 Weiss 0.10-dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 12:05 57 Counter 3.5dev Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 13:14 58 chess22k 1.14 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-06 14:24 59 Combusken 1.1.1 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-06 15:34 60 Monolith 2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-06 16:44 61 Monolith 2 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-06 17:53 62 ChessFighter 3.3 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-06 19:03 63 Bagatur 2.1 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-06 20:13 64 Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-06 21:23 65 Tucano 8.07_dev2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-06 22:32 66 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-06 23:42 67 FabChess 1.14.2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 00:52 68 Counter 3.5dev Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 02:02 69 chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 03:11 70 Combusken 1.1.1 Monolith 2
2020-05-07 04:21 71 Combusken 1.1.1 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 05:31 72 Monolith 2 chess22k 1.14
2020-05-07 06:40 73 ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 07:50 74 Bagatur 2.1 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 09:00 75 Asymptote 0.8 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 10:10 76 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 11:19 77 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 12:29 78 FabChess 1.14.2 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 13:39 79 Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2
2020-05-07 14:49 80 chess22k 1.14 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-07 15:58 81 chess22k 1.14 Weiss 0.10-dev2
2020-05-07 17:08 82 Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-07 18:18 83 Monolith 2 FabChess 1.14.2
2020-05-07 19:28 84 ChessFighter 3.3 Tucano 8.07_dev2
2020-05-07 20:37 85 Bagatur 2.1 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 21:47 86 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 22:57 87 Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-08 00:07 88 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Monolith 2
2020-05-08 01:16 89 FabChess 1.14.2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-08 02:26 90 Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14