For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
71.800% |
17.210% |
|
89.010% |
|
6.523% |
2.798% |
1.080% |
0.464% |
0.125% |
|
|
|
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
13.393% |
41.066% |
|
54.459% |
|
23.829% |
11.798% |
5.967% |
2.895% |
1.045% |
0.007% |
|
|
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
7.371% |
14.008% |
|
21.379% |
|
17.865% |
18.975% |
18.181% |
13.583% |
9.701% |
0.301% |
0.015% |
|
4. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
2.807% |
10.629% |
|
13.436% |
|
22.005% |
24.057% |
19.833% |
12.864% |
7.660% |
0.141% |
0.004% |
|
5. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.707% |
10.050% |
|
12.757% |
|
15.681% |
18.609% |
19.490% |
17.578% |
15.295% |
0.588% |
0.002% |
|
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
1.131% |
3.799% |
|
4.930% |
|
6.209% |
11.311% |
18.286% |
29.058% |
29.404% |
0.788% |
0.014% |
|
7. |
Monolith 2 |
|
0.791% |
3.238% |
|
4.029% |
|
7.883% |
12.431% |
17.067% |
23.180% |
34.147% |
1.207% |
0.056% |
|
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.005% |
0.020% |
0.089% |
0.342% |
2.183% |
68.831% |
28.166% |
0.364% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.007% |
0.036% |
0.440% |
28.039% |
70.105% |
1.372% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.098% |
1.638% |
98.264% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
38.845% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
10.729% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
8.442% |
4. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
8.380% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
7.482% |
6. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
5.314% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2.933% |
8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.471% |
9. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2.243% |
10. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.706% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
46.327% |
2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
16.043% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
9.998% |
4. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
9.969% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
3.679% |
6. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
3.351% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.994% |
8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.110% |
9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.548% |
10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
0.748% |
Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Bagatur 2.1 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
68.115% |
18.806% |
|
86.921% |
|
7.843% |
3.212% |
1.360% |
0.512% |
0.151% |
0.001% |
|
|
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
12.655% |
35.777% |
|
48.432% |
|
26.416% |
13.757% |
7.021% |
3.209% |
1.162% |
0.003% |
|
|
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
12.387% |
21.381% |
|
33.768% |
|
22.211% |
18.686% |
13.600% |
7.780% |
3.946% |
0.009% |
|
|
4. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
2.697% |
9.429% |
|
12.126% |
|
17.782% |
24.830% |
22.142% |
14.551% |
8.511% |
0.056% |
0.002% |
|
5. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.550% |
8.699% |
|
11.249% |
|
13.801% |
17.694% |
20.668% |
19.196% |
17.204% |
0.187% |
0.001% |
|
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
0.896% |
3.165% |
|
4.061% |
|
5.574% |
10.285% |
18.191% |
30.338% |
31.166% |
0.374% |
0.011% |
|
7. |
Monolith 2 |
|
0.700% |
2.743% |
|
3.443% |
|
6.373% |
11.535% |
17.002% |
24.287% |
36.644% |
0.683% |
0.033% |
|
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.010% |
0.074% |
0.770% |
59.139% |
39.345% |
0.662% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.006% |
0.053% |
0.446% |
39.401% |
58.898% |
1.195% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.147% |
1.710% |
98.143% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
32.919% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
16.386% |
3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
9.076% |
4. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
7.390% |
5. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
7.065% |
6. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
6.165% |
7. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
3.406% |
8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2.300% |
9. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.055% |
10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.894% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
39.084% |
2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
25.462% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
8.699% |
4. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
8.381% |
5. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.300% |
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2.859% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.436% |
8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.791% |
9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.331% |
10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.134% |
Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Bagatur 2.1 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
74.327% |
15.924% |
|
90.251% |
|
5.732% |
2.356% |
1.101% |
0.432% |
0.128% |
|
|
|
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
13.716% |
43.812% |
|
57.528% |
|
22.503% |
10.927% |
5.447% |
2.633% |
0.960% |
0.002% |
|
|
3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
2.951% |
11.311% |
|
14.262% |
|
23.372% |
23.930% |
18.561% |
12.232% |
7.471% |
0.169% |
0.003% |
|
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
4.310% |
10.657% |
|
14.967% |
|
16.123% |
19.479% |
20.512% |
16.572% |
12.105% |
0.236% |
0.006% |
|
5. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.772% |
10.691% |
|
13.463% |
|
16.835% |
19.146% |
18.886% |
16.557% |
14.448% |
0.660% |
0.005% |
|
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
1.180% |
4.149% |
|
5.329% |
|
6.702% |
11.408% |
18.436% |
28.475% |
28.726% |
0.899% |
0.025% |
|
7. |
Monolith 2 |
|
0.744% |
3.456% |
|
4.200% |
|
8.729% |
12.725% |
16.931% |
22.667% |
33.298% |
1.373% |
0.077% |
|
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.029% |
0.115% |
0.394% |
2.400% |
73.610% |
23.295% |
0.153% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
0.038% |
0.464% |
22.984% |
75.089% |
1.414% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
1.500% |
98.433% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
42.008% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
9.180% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
9.055% |
4. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
8.153% |
5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
8.099% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
3.250% |
7. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
3.098% |
8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.681% |
9. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.740% |
10. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.725% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
50.107% |
2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
11.251% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
10.920% |
4. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
10.737% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
4.072% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
3.164% |
7. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.348% |
8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.132% |
9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.652% |
10. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
0.657% |
Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Bagatur 2.1 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
76.614% |
15.233% |
|
91.847% |
|
4.942% |
1.944% |
0.825% |
0.326% |
0.114% |
0.002% |
|
|
2. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
13.987% |
47.438% |
|
61.425% |
|
21.341% |
9.869% |
4.579% |
2.052% |
0.711% |
0.023% |
|
|
3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
2.994% |
12.036% |
|
15.030% |
|
26.742% |
24.420% |
16.888% |
10.565% |
5.900% |
0.450% |
0.005% |
|
4. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.940% |
11.404% |
|
14.344% |
|
18.730% |
20.797% |
18.380% |
15.284% |
10.710% |
1.747% |
0.008% |
|
5. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
1.332% |
5.207% |
|
6.539% |
|
9.968% |
14.823% |
20.511% |
21.682% |
22.621% |
3.712% |
0.144% |
|
6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
1.241% |
4.906% |
|
6.147% |
|
8.006% |
13.406% |
19.940% |
25.637% |
24.232% |
2.569% |
0.063% |
|
7. |
Monolith 2 |
|
0.890% |
3.770% |
|
4.660% |
|
10.209% |
14.525% |
18.240% |
22.285% |
26.881% |
3.065% |
0.135% |
|
8. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
0.002% |
0.006% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.062% |
0.215% |
0.634% |
2.102% |
8.301% |
76.819% |
11.838% |
0.021% |
9. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.003% |
0.067% |
0.530% |
11.602% |
86.469% |
1.328% |
10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.011% |
1.338% |
98.651% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
45.832% |
2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
9.811% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
9.796% |
4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Counter 3.5dev |
9.029% |
5. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
4.168% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
4.053% |
7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2.949% |
8. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.941% |
9. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
1.935% |
10. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.904% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
54.861% |
2. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
11.737% |
3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
11.715% |
4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
5.048% |
5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
4.898% |
6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
3.582% |
7. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.425% |
8. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
1.765% |
9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
0.970% |
10. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
0.720% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
7.5 |
12.49 |
1.32 |
1.93 |
54 |
21 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
6.5 |
11.65 |
1.24 |
2.76 |
23 |
30 |
20 |
13 |
8 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
6.0 |
10.72 |
1.35 |
4.02 |
7 |
15 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
13 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
5.5 |
10.70 |
1.42 |
4.04 |
9 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
6.0 |
10.02 |
1.30 |
4.96 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
5.5 |
9.82 |
1.35 |
5.19 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
Monolith 2 |
5.5 |
9.75 |
1.34 |
5.29 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
18 |
23 |
25 |
4 |
0 |
8 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
3.0 |
6.31 |
1.39 |
8.28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
52 |
36 |
9 |
Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 |
3.0 |
5.76 |
1.25 |
8.61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
35 |
57 |
10 |
Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 |
0.5 |
2.80 |
1.25 |
9.92 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.14h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2020-05-06 03:56 |
51 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-06 05:04 |
52 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-06 06:13 |
53 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-06 07:21 |
54 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-06 08:29 |
55 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-06 09:38 |
56 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-06 10:46 |
57 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-06 11:54 |
58 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-06 13:03 |
59 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-06 14:11 |
60 |
Monolith 2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-06 15:19 |
61 |
Monolith 2 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-06 16:28 |
62 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-06 17:36 |
63 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-06 18:44 |
64 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-06 19:53 |
65 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-06 21:01 |
66 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-06 22:09 |
67 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-06 23:18 |
68 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 00:26 |
69 |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-07 01:34 |
70 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-07 02:43 |
71 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-07 03:51 |
72 |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2020-05-07 04:59 |
73 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-07 06:08 |
74 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-07 07:16 |
75 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-07 08:24 |
76 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-07 09:33 |
77 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 10:41 |
78 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-07 11:49 |
79 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-07 12:58 |
80 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-07 14:06 |
81 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
2020-05-07 15:14 |
82 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
2020-05-07 16:23 |
83 |
Monolith 2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
2020-05-07 17:31 |
84 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
2020-05-07 18:39 |
85 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
2020-05-07 19:48 |
86 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
2020-05-07 20:56 |
87 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2020-05-07 22:04 |
88 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Monolith 2 |
2020-05-07 23:13 |
89 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2020-05-08 00:21 |
90 |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |