For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
37.999% |
21.631% |
|
59.630% |
|
14.341% |
9.658% |
6.491% |
4.874% |
5.006% |
|
|
|
| 2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
22.077% |
20.744% |
|
42.821% |
|
20.150% |
16.202% |
10.508% |
6.803% |
3.516% |
|
|
|
| 3. |
Monolith 2 |
|
16.468% |
22.878% |
|
39.346% |
|
24.826% |
15.045% |
10.565% |
7.902% |
2.316% |
|
|
|
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
12.072% |
14.064% |
|
26.136% |
|
16.165% |
22.204% |
15.224% |
12.477% |
7.794% |
|
|
|
| 5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
5.873% |
9.216% |
|
15.089% |
|
9.539% |
13.214% |
22.379% |
24.865% |
14.914% |
|
|
|
| 6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.742% |
5.852% |
|
8.594% |
|
7.172% |
15.290% |
21.031% |
15.240% |
32.673% |
|
|
|
| 7. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
2.769% |
5.615% |
|
8.384% |
|
7.807% |
8.387% |
13.802% |
27.839% |
33.781% |
|
|
|
| 8. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
| 9. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
| 10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
15.049% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
12.940% |
| 3. |
Monolith 2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
6.824% |
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
5.809% |
| 5. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.492% |
| 6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
5.424% |
| 7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
5.012% |
| 8. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
4.675% |
| 9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
3.962% |
| 10. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
3.805% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
20.473% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
19.764% |
| 3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
10.484% |
| 4. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
6.502% |
| 5. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
6.468% |
| 6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.764% |
| 7. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
5.327% |
| 8. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
4.891% |
| 9. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
3.744% |
| 10. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Monolith 2 |
3.619% |
Speculate FabChess 1.14.2 – ChessFighter 3.3 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
37.079% |
19.028% |
|
56.107% |
|
11.688% |
9.235% |
6.783% |
6.191% |
9.996% |
|
|
|
| 2. |
Monolith 2 |
|
20.538% |
18.805% |
|
39.343% |
|
20.654% |
17.826% |
9.901% |
9.517% |
2.759% |
|
|
|
| 3. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
13.922% |
21.251% |
|
35.173% |
|
24.997% |
17.735% |
14.554% |
5.131% |
2.410% |
|
|
|
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
13.400% |
15.805% |
|
29.205% |
|
17.734% |
14.314% |
18.552% |
10.794% |
9.401% |
|
|
|
| 5. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
4.616% |
9.658% |
|
14.274% |
|
7.855% |
16.492% |
21.393% |
18.965% |
21.021% |
|
|
|
| 6. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
8.385% |
10.336% |
|
18.721% |
|
7.256% |
6.578% |
13.540% |
28.773% |
25.132% |
|
|
|
| 7. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
2.060% |
5.117% |
|
7.177% |
|
9.816% |
17.820% |
15.277% |
20.629% |
29.281% |
|
|
|
| 8. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
| 9. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
| 10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
12.543% |
| 2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
10.221% |
| 3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
9.733% |
| 4. |
Monolith 2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
6.223% |
| 5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
5.762% |
| 6. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Counter 3.5dev |
4.365% |
| 7. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
4.107% |
| 8. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
3.942% |
| 9. |
chess22k 1.14 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
3.441% |
| 10. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Asymptote 0.8 |
3.117% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Counter 3.5dev |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
16.908% |
| 2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
16.444% |
| 3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
10.990% |
| 4. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
8.879% |
| 5. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
8.049% |
| 6. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Monolith 2 |
5.139% |
| 7. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
4.800% |
| 8. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
4.336% |
| 9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
3.755% |
| 10. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Monolith 2 |
3.250% |
Speculate FabChess 1.14.2 – ChessFighter 3.3 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
38.151% |
25.321% |
|
63.472% |
|
16.596% |
9.477% |
4.454% |
3.019% |
2.982% |
|
|
|
| 2. |
Monolith 2 |
|
17.661% |
22.934% |
|
40.595% |
|
24.223% |
14.581% |
10.428% |
7.967% |
2.206% |
|
|
|
| 3. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
21.465% |
18.516% |
|
39.981% |
|
20.872% |
18.068% |
11.591% |
6.714% |
2.774% |
|
|
|
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
12.611% |
14.325% |
|
26.936% |
|
16.210% |
22.821% |
13.123% |
12.490% |
8.420% |
|
|
|
| 5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
5.645% |
8.856% |
|
14.501% |
|
9.620% |
14.413% |
23.551% |
23.656% |
14.259% |
|
|
|
| 6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
3.271% |
6.543% |
|
9.814% |
|
6.597% |
13.407% |
22.041% |
13.992% |
34.149% |
|
|
|
| 7. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
1.196% |
3.505% |
|
4.701% |
|
5.882% |
7.233% |
14.812% |
32.162% |
35.210% |
|
|
|
| 8. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
| 9. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
| 10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
14.333% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
13.254% |
| 3. |
Monolith 2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
8.313% |
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
6.592% |
| 5. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
6.589% |
| 6. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.271% |
| 7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.166% |
| 8. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
4.823% |
| 9. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
4.118% |
| 10. |
Monolith 2 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
4.105% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
21.567% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
20.922% |
| 3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
11.863% |
| 4. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
6.724% |
| 5. |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
5.722% |
| 6. |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.279% |
| 7. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
5.065% |
| 8. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
4.953% |
| 9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Monolith 2 |
4.223% |
| 10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2.719% |
Speculate FabChess 1.14.2 – ChessFighter 3.3 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
|
76.587% |
14.589% |
|
91.176% |
|
5.794% |
2.081% |
0.745% |
0.204% |
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Counter 3.5dev |
|
5.792% |
39.437% |
|
45.229% |
|
24.337% |
11.271% |
10.783% |
7.727% |
0.653% |
|
|
|
| 3. |
Monolith 2 |
|
5.822% |
26.585% |
|
32.407% |
|
31.540% |
16.257% |
10.910% |
6.408% |
2.478% |
|
|
|
| 4. |
chess22k 1.14 |
|
6.455% |
7.250% |
|
13.705% |
|
14.685% |
27.689% |
26.489% |
15.497% |
1.935% |
|
|
|
| 5. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
|
4.008% |
9.214% |
|
13.222% |
|
13.631% |
14.987% |
25.293% |
28.443% |
4.424% |
|
|
|
| 6. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
|
1.335% |
2.845% |
|
4.180% |
|
9.006% |
23.486% |
18.151% |
18.960% |
26.217% |
|
|
|
| 7. |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
|
0.001% |
0.080% |
|
0.081% |
|
1.007% |
4.229% |
7.629% |
22.761% |
64.293% |
|
|
|
| 8. |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
| 9. |
Bagatur 2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
| 10. |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
38.824% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
23.953% |
| 3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
6.686% |
| 4. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
5.404% |
| 5. |
chess22k 1.14 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
4.257% |
| 6. |
Monolith 2 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
3.615% |
| 7. |
Counter 3.5dev |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
3.247% |
| 8. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
2.579% |
| 9. |
chess22k 1.14 |
Monolith 2 |
1.713% |
| 10. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
1.643% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
42.071% |
| 2. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Monolith 2 |
27.568% |
| 3. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
chess22k 1.14 |
9.661% |
| 4. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
9.265% |
| 5. |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
2.534% |
| 6. |
Monolith 2 |
chess22k 1.14 |
2.393% |
| 7. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Counter 3.5dev |
1.720% |
| 8. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
Monolith 2 |
1.022% |
| 9. |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Monolith 2 |
0.844% |
| 10. |
Asymptote 0.8 |
chess22k 1.14 |
0.798% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
| Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
| 1 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
9.5 |
11.20 |
0.75 |
3.07 |
25 |
23 |
16 |
12 |
11 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| 2 |
Monolith 2 |
9.5 |
11.12 |
0.76 |
3.23 |
24 |
18 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| 3 |
Counter 3.5dev |
9.5 |
11.11 |
0.77 |
3.27 |
25 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 |
chess22k 1.14 |
9.0 |
10.91 |
0.70 |
3.77 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
| 5 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
9.5 |
10.67 |
0.60 |
4.47 |
3 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
23 |
21 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| 6 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
9.0 |
10.52 |
0.77 |
4.81 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
19 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
| 7 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
9.0 |
10.30 |
0.76 |
5.39 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
13 |
19 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
| 8 |
Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 |
6.5 |
7.16 |
0.58 |
8.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
0 |
| 9 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
4.0 |
4.89 |
0.60 |
9.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
| 10 |
Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 |
1.5 |
2.12 |
0.55 |
10.00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.11h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
| 2020-05-07 09:45 |
79 |
Counter 3.5dev |
Monolith 2 |
| 2020-05-07 10:51 |
80 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
| 2020-05-07 11:58 |
81 |
chess22k 1.14 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
| 2020-05-07 13:05 |
82 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
Counter 3.5dev |
| 2020-05-07 14:12 |
83 |
Monolith 2 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
| 2020-05-07 15:18 |
84 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
| 2020-05-07 16:25 |
85 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
| 2020-05-07 17:32 |
86 |
Weiss 0.10-dev2 |
Bagatur 2.1 |
| 2020-05-07 18:39 |
87 |
Asymptote 0.8 |
ChessFighter 3.3 |
| 2020-05-07 19:45 |
88 |
Tucano 8.07_dev2 |
Monolith 2 |
| 2020-05-07 20:52 |
89 |
FabChess 1.14.2 |
Combusken 1.1.1 |
| 2020-05-07 21:59 |
90 |
Counter 3.5dev |
chess22k 1.14 |